Brexit process

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 24 Nov 2018, 11:56

UndercoverElephant wrote:
This is REALLY SIMPLE
It really isn't. We are talking 4-dimensional chess here. The current situation is politically more complicated than anything that has happened in modern British history. It has the potential to create a crisis deeper than anything that has happened since Cromwell. It's not just the division over the primary question - it is all the other stuff (the Irish question, the fact that we have a minority government, etc...) too.

The political class don't want to enact the result of the referendum
Apart from the ones that do. If the political class were in agreement on this, the referendum would never have happened in the first place.

There is no Irish Question.

Okay, here's your big chance, spell out the "Irish question" that does not involve appeasing the one or other flank of the political class, but deals only with the people.

And by the way, this is not the most "complicated" political problem is recent political history. It is simply one of the few occasions where the political class have f***ed up and allowed the people to make a decision that does not follow their agenda. Calling that "complicated" is just a cover to hide what is an uncomplicated truth.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 24 Nov 2018, 11:58

clv101 wrote:
Little John wrote:This is REALLY SIMPLE
If you really think this situation is simple, then you really haven't been paying attention these last two years! I've no doubt you'd like it to be simple - but it's not.

Ok, so here is your big chance. Spell out, in detail, the complications in way that is directly relatable to the people and not to the agenda or machinations of any particular flank of the political class.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 24 Nov 2018, 13:08

Little John wrote:
Okay, here's your big chance, spell out the "Irish question" that does not involve appeasing the one or other flank of the political class, but deals only with the people.

Some of the people in Ireland really want a united Ireland, and some others really want Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK. These two groups could easily end up involved in a vicious civil war if the situation is not treated carefully.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 24 Nov 2018, 13:17

Not going to like this, Steve:

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-5793470

I am afraid I agree with him. I believe this is going to end with a referendum which remain will narrowly win. And yes there will be consequences. Tory party will split, UKIP will get rocket boosters.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 24 Nov 2018, 14:28

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:
Okay, here's your big chance, spell out the "Irish question" that does not involve appeasing the one or other flank of the political class, but deals only with the people.
Some of the people in Ireland really want a united Ireland, and some others really want Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK. These two groups could easily end up involved in a vicious civil war if the situation is not treated carefully.

That is equally true both pre and post Brexit. You haven't answered the question of how, specifically, Brexit is going to affect that over and above the political class making things difficult on the back of it for their own reasons that are not, in themselves, related to the Irish problem but are, instead, related to a wider geo-political project to create a united states of Europe. In other words, you are engaging, here, in vague hand-waving.

Want to have another go?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 24 Nov 2018, 16:48

Little John wrote:
Want to have another go?

The conflict over the future of Northern Ireland is not engineered by the political class. It is a dispute between two different groups of people, rooted deep in history and religious divisions.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 24 Nov 2018, 18:51

I didn't say the future of Northern Ireland is being engineered by the political class. I am saying they are using the Irish problem as a cover for a wider geo-political agenda. Though, it should be ironically noted, in doing so, they are risking the reemergence of the very troubles they so deceitfully argue they are trying to avoid.

What's more, EU, you are not stupid, so you knew full well what my point was vis a vis the actions of that political class. Which begs the question of why you should deliberately "misunderstand" the point being made.

So, I shall ask again; how, specifically, does the Irish issue deteriorate or, in fact, change in any significant material way beyond its current state as a function of Brexit. You have yet to actually do that. Your last post, again, did not answer that material question.

Why, after my asking it for what is now the third time, have you not done so?

No more vagaries about the "troubles". What, specifically, is involved in a full, WTO-based BREXIT, that causes those troubles to reignite.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 24 Nov 2018, 19:22

Little John wrote:
What's more, EU,

unfortunate typo

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 24 Nov 2018, 19:27

What's more, EU, you are not stupid, so you knew full well what my point was vis a vis the actions of that political class. Which begs the question of why you should deliberately "misunderstand" the point being made.

I haven't misunderstood it. I don't agree with it. You seem to think "the political class" are involved in a conspiracy here, but I think the truth is that there multiple clashing conspiracies going on. The political class is all over the place with this one, not just in the UK but also in the US, and increasingly in other parts of the EU. What we have here is the total chaos that emerges when the political class are fighting a war between themselves. And a big part of the reason for this is that they are petrified of Jeremy Corbyn.

So, I shall ask again; how, specifically, does the Irish issue deteriorate or, in fact, change in any significant material way beyond its current state as a function of Brexit. You have yet to actually do that. Your last post, again, did not answer that material question.

To be honest, I don't understand that question. Even if there is no border constructed there in the event of a no deal brexit, the crisis doesn't end. It is just shifted to the EU and the WTO instead.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 24 Nov 2018, 19:32

Again, I didn't say there was no Irish problem in and of itself. So, don't imply that I did by persistently taking the opportunity to point it out to me unless you are specifically going to show how it is affected by Brexit. Futhermore, so far as the Irish problem affects NI and the mainland, this remains the same post Brexit as it is pre Brexit except insofar as the EU wishes to stir up trouble at the border for SI as part of the wider geo-political game they are playing. But, it remains to be seen how the Southern Irish people would take to that. Beyond such EU machinations, there is no reason to assume the situation between Northern Ireland post Brexit will be significantly other than it is now. Special visas could be issued to NI and SI citizen to allow continued freedom of movement both sides of the border, whilst restricting the movement of non Irish EU citizens over it. Goods may be subject to some additional customs checks. But, so what?

Additionally, to the extent that the Northern Irish wish to secede to SI at some point, their right to do so is written into the GFA and that right does not change at all following Brexit.

So, if the Irish issue that we both know exists, is unaffected as a consequence of a no deal/WTO Brexit that involves the western border of NI meeting a border of the EU at the edge of Southern Ireland, as you now appear to concede, other than one generated by the EU political class or by the dominant flank of our own political class who are in cahoots with them in order to provide cover for a larger geo-policial agenda, why is Ireland constantly cited by some, including by you, as being a "problem" that is dangerously exacerbated by such a form of Brexit?

Alternatively, you could, here, finally explain specifically how a WTO based-Brexit is going to exacerbate the Irish problem.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 24 Nov 2018, 19:58

And we have come full circle. My first post in this thread, the day after A50 was triggered:

This is totally unexpected and quite extraordinary. Either the EU does not understand the relevance of Gibraltar to British history and the strength of feeling there regarding remaining British, not Spanish. Or the EU does understand and wants these negotiations to get very nasty very quickly.

If the EU does not back down, this could derail the negotiations before they get started. The EU has no right to intervene in the dispute between the UK and Spain over Gibraltar.

Just posted elsewhere on the internet:

Mays capitulation over Gibraltar will be the nail in the coffin for her deal

I vote Tory. I am soft remain but as we know there is only two real options hard Brexit or Federalized remain as no one offers any alternative. Even so I was willing to support Mays deal I thought it the best of a bad situation. However this Gibraltar capitulation is a disgrace and I do feel a lot of people who may have been willing to give Mays deal a chance will maybe feel the same. Looks like on this capitulation and it stays hen my vote will be going to UKIP. The next election looks so grim we have a choice of the circus that is the Tories, the strip Brit of anything of value Labour, the insane but no fear of being in power UKIP and some other party that I canâ€™t help but forget. Really not looking forward to the next election at all, though I probably wonâ€™t be in Britain anyway.

Edit: while not a complete capitulation itâ€™s a worrying enough direction that I care not for supporting it, and I have zeros faith in her not f***ing it up.

There's more where that came from. Capitulating on Gibraltar seems to have really pissed off pragmatic tory voters who were reluctantly backing May's deal until now. She'll lost more of her own MPs as a result.

This deal will not get through parliament. It's going to be voted down by at least 100 votes, and that will kill it stone dead. At which point this is all going to get very interesting, because the various experts are making wildly incompatible predictions about what is likely to happen next.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 24 Nov 2018, 20:01

Little John wrote: Alternatively, you could, here, finally explain specifically how a WTO based-Brexit is going to exacerbate the Irish problem.

A WTO brexit requires, legally, both the UK and RoI to construct a border. Both the UK and RoI have said they absolutely will not do so. That's quite a serious problem.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 24 Nov 2018, 20:16

They are intervening in Gibraltar for the same reason they are intervening in Ireland.

If one needed just a single reason to be out of the EU fully, completely, unambiguously and entirely, the EU's preparedness during the Brexit negotiations to use Ireland and Gibraltar as part of their "negotiation" strategy are it.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 24 Nov 2018, 22:42

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote: Alternatively, you could, here, finally explain specifically how a WTO based-Brexit is going to exacerbate the Irish problem.
A WTO brexit requires, legally, both the UK and RoI to construct a border. Both the UK and RoI have said they absolutely will not do so. That's quite a serious problem.

Define "construct a border" with regards to the already existing one between NI and SI. Until you do, you can't say that's quite a serious problem. Also, there are countries all around the world with deliberately semi-permeable borders. Are all such countries cut off from WTO based international trade? Which is what you appear to be suggesting.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 24 Nov 2018, 22:59

RevdTess wrote: I was thinking the other day about what I might do if we end up with a new referendum where the only options are May's deal or no deal. I'd probably vote for no deal just to spite May

Interesting comment. Why spite her? For being useless? That isn't her fault. For lying to people? Deliberately misleading them?