Brexit process

[Lord Beria3]

They said the same about Trump!

[UndercoverElephant]

Anyone else notice that it has all gone rather quiet on the brexit news front?

The constant stream of leaked news seems to have shut down, or at least slowed down significantly.

[Little John]

Yep. These shifts of gear in the news output are rarely arbitrary.

[Lord Beria3]

Why the EEA is no longer a Brexit option

Brexit almost entirely disappeared from the news agenda in the UK over the last few days, which would have been a relief if Brexit had not been superseded by other awful news. There was one Brexit story that caught our eye, not so much for what it says, but as an example of how uninformed the debate still is. This story concerns a Brexit plan B to introduce a temporary EEA membership in lieu of the transition period. Various senior Tory politicians are quoted as finding the idea brilliant. 

Unfortunately, the proposal is technically and legally not feasible. We have also advocated the EEA as a potential Brexit option in the past. But the EEA is no instant panacea. As Jean-Claude Piris pointed out in a series of tweets, full EEA membership requires a series of treaties, including the UK joining Efta. These treaties are not off-the-shelf, they require technical negotiations and ratification by all members. This cannot be done by March 29, 2019. Piris doubts that EEA members would accept the principle of a temporary membership. That assertion would need to be tested, though. We find it hard to see why EEA members should want to block this, but we agree with him that their assent cannot be taken for granted either. Thus a Brexit transition period is necessary. And Piris also points out that the EEA is not a customs union. Worse, it is incompatible with a customs union as Art 56(3) of the Efta Convention binds members to accept FTAs concluded by Efta members. This means that the cliff edge would still occur, and that the EEA does not solve the Irish border issue. 

This is the reason why the UK government and the EU are negotiating along the lines of a virtual customs union, with minimal regulatory checks. The agreement on the Irish backstop in December has dramatically reduced the political room for manoeuvre on Brexit. It’s either that, no deal, or a last minute reversal. Such is the universe of available options.

We see the debate about a second referendum to be equally based on a lot of misinformation, such as the idea of an amendment to the withdrawal treaty that makes it subject to a referendum. The EU would invariably interpret this as a rejection of the entire treaty. There are circumstances in which the EU might extend the Article 50 period. The likelier of the scenarios is for this to buy a little more time - a few weeks at most - to allow for ratification. The less likely, but still possible, scenario would involve the UK government informing the EU that the UK wants to reconsider Brexit and hold a second referendum - even if the EU would be less than impressed by such a legally and politically uncertain parliamentary manoeuvre.

[Mark]

How does REACH change if we get a no deal?

Remember, Jacob is not a specialist chemical lawyer.

From ENDS.......

Again I ask. How does REACH change if we get a no deal, if REACH is being cut and paste into UK law?

You admitted that you didn't read the last article, and it looks like you haven't read this one either.....
It might be possible to cut/paste REACh legislation as you put it, but with a No Deal Brexit, any UK company trading with the EU will have to operate to x2 systems, plus appointment of Only Representatives, IT issues (IUCLID5/6), Regulation issues, etc. etc. I've pointed these things out several times now, plus references.

I hear that you don't accept it - but you've not referenced any of your arguments
Fair enough, we just have to agree to differ.

[UndercoverElephant]

Yep. These shifts of gear in the news output are rarely arbitrary.

I saw this and thought of you...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... pean-union

BREXIT LIVE: MPs fear 'BOMBS AND WEAPONS' as public debate sours

and

the atmosphere in Parliament remains so poisonous that several MPs have told me they are even avoiding the Tea Room

[stumuz1]

From ENDS.......

Again I ask. How does REACH change if we get a no deal, if REACH is being cut and paste into UK law?

You admitted that you didn't read the last article, and it looks like you haven't read this one either.....
It might be possible to cut/paste REACh legislation as you put it, but with a No Deal Brexit, any UK company trading with the EU will have to operate to x2 systems, plus appointment of Only Representatives, IT issues (IUCLID5/6), Regulation issues, etc. etc. I've pointed these things out several times now, plus references.

I hear that you don't accept it - but you've not referenced any of your arguments
Fair enough, we just have to agree to differ.

The first article was mere fluff by publishers/lobbyists for the chemical industry. I thought you had got the irony of a £500 per person for a 'how to profit from a post brexit seminar'

The second article merely states that the HSE takes over from ECHA and everything will be grandfathered for UK companies.

As for the x2 systems, mutatis mutandis, for EU companies. I've said this before but you seem not to have grasped it.

As for IT, the only costs will be for EU companies having to reapply to the UK system. The UK companies will be grandfathered. I've said this before but you seem not to have grasped it.

Only representatives is an established industry already, with UK companies being leaders. I am an only rep for a Chinese company importing into the EU. Sorry, again, I've said this before but you seem not to have grasped it.

As for the referencing, you have provided adverts, lobbyists, and subjective opinion.

Here is the European Union withdrawal act 2018.

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/201 ... ts/enacted

It is on the statute book and has received royal assent.

The part which scuppers all your assertions is S.3(1)

[vtsnowedin]

I think you guys are over thinking this.
Suppose if you will that there is a very hard Brexit with no agreements whatsoever and relations are little better then the seventeenth century almost state of war between the UK and France and the rest of Europe.
So the producers of some UK product (widgets) want to sell some of their production to the EU. They tell the EU potential buyers that their widgets are produced to the UK standard, take it or leave it. The EU can take them, leave them, or put on a tariff on them. If the tariff is too high the UK can sell the widgets to the USA or Canada or any other economy that needs widgets. The customers in the EU not wanting to pay extra for their widgets will soon bring their government to the line.

[Lord Beria3]

There will be a mitigated no deal arrangements should Greer be proven right and a no deal outcome occur.

As eurointelligence has stated before the economic impact of no deal has been grossly exaggerated.

[stumuz1]

I think you guys are over thinking this.
Suppose if you will that there is a very hard Brexit with no agreements whatsoever and relations are little better then the seventeenth century almost state of war between the UK and France and the rest of Europe.
So the producers of some UK product (widgets) want to sell some of their production to the EU. They tell the EU potential buyers that their widgets are produced to the UK standard, take it or leave it. The EU can take them, leave them, or put on a tariff on them. If the tariff is too high the UK can sell the widgets to the USA or Canada or any other economy that needs widgets. The customers in the EU not wanting to pay extra for their widgets will soon bring their government to the line.

Spot on VT.

I could give numerous examples to support your opinion.

[careful_eugene]

I think you guys are over thinking this.
Suppose if you will that there is a very hard Brexit with no agreements whatsoever and relations are little better then the seventeenth century almost state of war between the UK and France and the rest of Europe.
So the producers of some UK product (widgets) want to sell some of their production to the EU. They tell the EU potential buyers that their widgets are produced to the UK standard, take it or leave it. The EU can take them, leave them, or put on a tariff on them. If the tariff is too high the UK can sell the widgets to the USA or Canada or any other economy that needs widgets. The customers in the EU not wanting to pay extra for their widgets will soon bring their government to the line.

Spot on VT.

I could give numerous examples to support your opinion.

I think this might be an oversimplification, I'm not sure if you've heard of the BMW Mini crankshaft example? https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... britain-eu
Crashing out with no deal would surely put this whole operation at risk. Ideally all parts of the operation would be carried out in one place but I'm guessing that the crankshaft forging or casting and engine assembly facilities don't exist in the UK with this sort of capacity.
Our problem is that we are almost inextricably linked with the EU with transactions like the Mini crankshaft happening all the time. If we crash out with no deal it will affect thousands of jobs.
As a member of this forum I know that we need to cease unnecessary economic activity (including car manufacture) and begin a decline to try and mitigate the effect of climate change and resource depletion. In an ideal world we would all reduce our working week to 3 days and spend our leisure time pursuing artistic endeavours that had little or no impact on the planet. In reality, some of us will continue to work whilst others go from being productive members of society to dole scum and get treated as such by the Government.

[clv101]

There will be a mitigated no deal arrangements ...

Is this a 'bare bones deal' ?

[Lord Beria3]

Hell yeah! Mitigated/bare bones Brexit.

The EU could hardly do otherwise given Ireland and their close economic and trading relationship with the UK.

Bring on no deal!

[Mark]

I think you guys are over thinking this.
Suppose if you will that there is a very hard Brexit with no agreements whatsoever and relations are little better then the seventeenth century almost state of war between the UK and France and the rest of Europe.
So the producers of some UK product (widgets) want to sell some of their production to the EU. They tell the EU potential buyers that their widgets are produced to the UK standard, take it or leave it. The EU can take them, leave them, or put on a tariff on them. If the tariff is too high the UK can sell the widgets to the USA or Canada or any other economy that needs widgets. The customers in the EU not wanting to pay extra for their widgets will soon bring their government to the line.

Spot on VT.

I could give numerous examples to support your opinion.

If we crash out with no deal it will affect thousands of jobs.

Hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Remember, many of the companies affected are not British anyway.
Lots of Japanese, US, Chinese etc. companies are based here partly to give them access to the EU Single Market.....
Also, many UK companies are inextricably linked to EU companies (think BAe / Airbus etc.)
The location of these jobs could easily change.

[stumuz1]

Spot on VT.

I could give numerous examples to support your opinion.

If we crash out with no deal it will affect thousands of jobs.

Hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Remember, many of the companies affected are not British anyway.
Lots of Japanese, US, Chinese etc. companies are based here partly to give them access to the EU Single Market.....
Also, many UK companies are inextricably linked to EU companies (think BAe / Airbus etc.)
The location of these jobs could easily change.

Also think of the US jobs currently coming to the UK to dodge Chinese NTB's in response to Trumps trade war.

There is a chemical company buying land adjacent to its site to facilitate this.

Remember Mark, the EU is not the be all and end all of trade.