Brexit process

[careful_eugene]

That's a bit harsh. As I said in another post Eastern Europeans get 579% increase in pay by coming to the UK. Where do UK unskilled workers go to earn £103000 a year?

That's the way of the world where most of the money/opportunity is concentrated in the West.....
All that would happen is that the Eastern Europeans get replaced by more Asians, Africans, Latinos....,

So better prospects for UK workers if we control borders?

The problem with that is that recent governments haven't controlled borders even when they can, non EU migration is as high as EU migration. Other EU countries can remove people without a job or means of supporting themselves after 3 months, our government chose not to do this.
Lots of young immigrants coming into the UK suits business as there is a lot of competition for lower skilled jobs so wages can be kept down. I doubt this will change after brexit, trade deals with former commonwealth countries will include some sort of freedom of movement clause so expect more people coming here from the Indian sub-continent, Africa and the Middle East. The last thing this government wants is better prospects for UK workers.

[Lord Beria3]

Actually the critical point is the moment she announces what deal she's going to put before parliament or that there isn't going to be one. That's the point where everybody's hand is revealed.

Yep, at some point soon the fog will have to clear and there'll be something black and white for parliament. The bluster up to that point is just that.

Yeah, that is quite possible.

The cabinet seem key at the moment. A large contingent, including the DUP and the Scottish Conservatives are trying to impose red lines on May and juice up no-deal preparations so that we can walk away from the talks.

Whether they will succeed is another matter.

I still think it could go either way, but, as I said before, my gut instinct is still that it will be a no-deal in the end. However, it is a mild gut feeling.

[Little John]

The problem with that is that recent governments haven't controlled borders even when they can, non EU migration is as high as EU migration. Other EU countries can remove people without a job or means of supporting themselves after 3 months, our government chose not to do this.
Lots of young immigrants coming into the UK suits business as there is a lot of competition for lower skilled jobs so wages can be kept down. I doubt this will change after brexit, trade deals with former commonwealth countries will include some sort of freedom of movement clause so expect more people coming here from the Indian sub-continent, Africa and the Middle East. The last thing this government wants is better prospects for UK workers.

If, following Brexit, whatever its final form, mass immigration into this country is not cut, then politics in this country will continue to realign.

There is no going back to BAU now.

[stumuz1]

The problem with that is that recent governments haven't controlled borders even when they can, non EU migration is as high as EU migration. Other EU countries can remove people without a job or means of supporting themselves after 3 months, our government chose not to do this.
Lots of young immigrants coming into the UK suits business as there is a lot of competition for lower skilled jobs so wages can be kept down. I doubt this will change after brexit, trade deals with former commonwealth countries will include some sort of freedom of movement clause so expect more people coming here from the Indian sub-continent, Africa and the Middle East. The last thing this government wants is better prospects for UK workers.

I agree with everything you said.

My hope, I'm always an optimist! is the huge political earthquake that was brexit, will spur future governments to look at the plight of min wage UK workers.

You are quite right in that it is cheaper to get a trained migrant to do a job, rather than train a person.

[careful_eugene]

The problem with that is that recent governments haven't controlled borders even when they can, non EU migration is as high as EU migration. Other EU countries can remove people without a job or means of supporting themselves after 3 months, our government chose not to do this.
Lots of young immigrants coming into the UK suits business as there is a lot of competition for lower skilled jobs so wages can be kept down. I doubt this will change after brexit, trade deals with former commonwealth countries will include some sort of freedom of movement clause so expect more people coming here from the Indian sub-continent, Africa and the Middle East. The last thing this government wants is better prospects for UK workers.

If, following Brexit, whatever its final form, mass immigration into this country is not cut, then politics in this country will continue to realign.

There is no going back to BAU now.

I hope you're right but I have seen several brexit supporting politicians state that the reasons people voted for brexit were nothing to do with immigration it was all about taking back control and that we should celebrate diversity yada yada. In reality, the vote was absolutely about immigration https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 11651.html I'm worried that things either won't change or won't change enough, people will feel betrayed and will seek a more extreme solution.

[careful_eugene]

The problem with that is that recent governments haven't controlled borders even when they can, non EU migration is as high as EU migration. Other EU countries can remove people without a job or means of supporting themselves after 3 months, our government chose not to do this.
Lots of young immigrants coming into the UK suits business as there is a lot of competition for lower skilled jobs so wages can be kept down. I doubt this will change after brexit, trade deals with former commonwealth countries will include some sort of freedom of movement clause so expect more people coming here from the Indian sub-continent, Africa and the Middle East. The last thing this government wants is better prospects for UK workers.

I agree with everything you said.

My hope, I'm always an optimist! is the huge political earthquake that was brexit, will spur future governments to look at the plight of min wage UK workers.

You are quite right in that it is cheaper to get a trained migrant to do a job, rather than train a person.

Nothing wrong with being optimistic, maybe I'm too cynical and jaded!

[vtsnowedin]

I met a gentleman this weekend that handles investments for endowments and individuals internationally. He had just returned from a trip to London. Most of the possible options in the UK are on hold until the Brexit process is settled.
The uncertainty is costing your economy millions every day. They need to get on with it sooner rather then later.

[emordnilap]

Just changed a small UK cheque for euros and it's almost parity.

Good time (money-wise) for people to visit England.

[UndercoverElephant]

Actually the critical point is the moment she announces what deal she's going to put before parliament or that there isn't going to be one. That's the point where everybody's hand is revealed.

Yep, at some point soon the fog will have to clear and there'll be something black and white for parliament. The bluster up to that point is just that.

I think I know what is going to happen.

Theresa May will not come back from any “final deadline meeting� without a deal. She has never truly believed that no deal is better than the deal she will get from the EU (which might end up being the biggest mistake ever made by a British Prime Minister). Her own bottom line is to stay in power as long as possible, and she knows if she comes back with no deal at all, having failed to prepare the country for it, she will go down in history as having failed her country at a crucial moment, and I'd be surprised if she survives it. She will try to keep going, and that means she's going to have to stab either the DUP and/or the ERG in the back at the last moment, and pray that enough Labour MPs will vote for the deal (maybe against a three line whip to vote against) to get it through parliament. No point in the tory party toppling her between striking the deal and holding the vote, and neither the tory rebels nor DUP are going to bring the government down and risk a GE at that moment. So the deal will be voted on.

If Parliament votes it down then we will have a no deal brexit (presumably with some side-deals to avoid the worst chaos, but maybe not even that if the Irish problem escalates) unless there's an A50 extension and a general election (which will only happen if the pro-Europe tories votes to bring their own government down) or a second referendum (and I truly cannot see how this would come about, or how to guarantee its legitimacy in the eyes of leave voters). I'd put the chances of this, right now, at about 75%, but falling. The tory brexiteers are panicking.

If Parliament passes it then we are probably heading towards a really bad deal that almost nobody wants. Even a big chunk of brexiteers – perhaps a majority – will conclude it is better to remain as a full member than accept the deal on offer.

So what will happen?

Answer: Labour will abstain. Or, enough Labour MPs will abstain to ensure that parliament passes the bill on the votes of tory MPs who are desperate to avoid a no-deal. That way Labour does take the blame for accepting a terrible deal, and we all get to watch the tories tear themselves to pieces. TM will be replaced, followed by a general election which Labour will win. And the UK will end up stuck in a customs union with no say over the rules, have not really left the EU at all.

What a total f***-up.

[Potemkin Villager]

What a total f***-up.

Hard to disagree with that.

In all the huffing, puffing and arm waving about Brexit there is never any clue as to how good a deal has to be to be a good deal or how bad a deal has to be to be unacceptable. The thing is that good bad and indifferent mean totally different things to different people. There seems to be a general unrealistic belief as to what Brexit can actually deliver and a conviction that whatever deal is arrived at can never possibly be good enough.

Tricky things beliefs and convictions........

[Little John]

Then we should expect an English Le Pen on the horizon in due course.

[Lord Beria3]

Tommy Robinson?

[careful_eugene]

Tommy Robinson?

I don't think so, whatever you think of him he has a history that is distasteful to too many. Having said that, Trump is in the White House so for all I know Grayson Perry could be our next PM!

[kenneal - lagger]

I had a lengthy discussion last week with an ardent Remainer and in the end her reasons for remaining in came down to "I like being European!" Any arguments about being forced into an "ever closer union" and forced uptake of the Euro and the economic chaos that that would bring to the UK were trumped because "I like being European!"

She didn't understand how the ability to print our own money kept us from being a basket case like Greece or soon to be basket case Italy. I think that she, a well respected architect, is fairly typical of many Remainers. And they think that people who "don't like Europe" are stupid. They are not stupid, just emotional like she is.

[Mark]

The problem with that is that recent governments haven't controlled borders even when they can, non EU migration is as high as EU migration. Other EU countries can remove people without a job or means of supporting themselves after 3 months, our government chose not to do this.
Lots of young immigrants coming into the UK suits business as there is a lot of competition for lower skilled jobs so wages can be kept down. I doubt this will change after brexit, trade deals with former commonwealth countries will include some sort of freedom of movement clause so expect more people coming here from the Indian sub-continent, Africa and the Middle East. The last thing this government wants is better prospects for UK workers.

If, following Brexit, whatever its final form, mass immigration into this country is not cut, then politics in this country will continue to realign.

There is no going back to BAU now.

I hope you're right but I have seen several brexit supporting politicians state that the reasons people voted for brexit were nothing to do with immigration it was all about taking back control and that we should celebrate diversity yada yada. In reality, the vote was absolutely about immigration https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 11651.html I'm worried that things either won't change or won't change enough, people will feel betrayed and will seek a more extreme solution.

Agree with all this.
Brexit will not help with the Visa over-stayers - student or otherwise
Brexit will not help with NHS mass recruitment of Indian Doctors and Filipina Nurses
Brexit will not help with bogus Asylum Seekers
Brexit will not help with Russian Billionaires buying up central London
Brexit will not help with South Asian and African arranged marriages

If these were the real issues for Brexit voters - you've all been sold a pup.