https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-bo ... exit-deal/By 43 percent to 37 percent, participants also said they are prepared to walk away without a deal if the EU will not strike a “reasonable� agreement, rather than trying to avoid a “no-deal� exit at all costs.
Well this poll backs up my anecdotal evidence that the "man on the street" would rather Britain go it alone, e.g. no-deal, rather then accept an unreasonable deal.
Regarding the prospect of a no-deal, I think it is more likely then not, but a few caveats...
1) as Eurointelligence notes, EU leaders don't take the threat of no-deal seriously. They all assume, to a man, that Britain will back down at the last minute. The possibility that Britain might rather have a no-deal exit is beyond their comprehension.
The reason I think a deal is still on the cards is that once the EU, at the last minute, realise that Britain isn't going to sign up to a Irish backstop which breaks up the Union (May's only real red line) they may soften their position and find a technical fudge on the Irish border, in line with existing solutions.
Of course, the Irish will hate it, but I suppose the question is whether the Irish border is worth destroying any possibility of a Brexit deal with the UK. Ultimately a call for Macron and Merkel as they de facto lead the EU27.
2) a blind Brexit is still a possibility with the most contentious issues kicked down the can. I think it is a diminishing possibility but not yet to be ruled out.
My own view is that a no-deal Brexit is marginally the most likely outcome but with a Canada style hard Brexit deal or a Chequers minus blind Brexit coming close behind.
p.s. my definition of a no-deal Brexit would include mini-deals to avoid the worst case disruption. As Euro intelligence notes in a recent briefing it is not realistic to think that the EU member-states will allow planes, euro-tunnel and other basic issues to be grounded on April 1st 2019. It is in everybody interests to ensure a smoothest possible no-deal outcome, if negotiations collapse.
