Brexit process

[Little John]

Then there will be bloodshed

[UndercoverElephant]

Do you really think that large scale immigration will end? .

Yes. Not ending it would be politically suicidal.

[careful_eugene]

Do you really think that large scale immigration will end? .

Yes. Not ending it would be politically suicidal.

Large scale immigration has been going on for years yet the 2 main parties responsible remain in power. The government will be desperate to do trade deals around the world after March and will agree to anything including free movement.

[Little John]

The limits to growth have been reached. Tomorrow is not going to be the same as yesterday. The rules of the game have changed.

Unsurprisingly, those who have been least affected by those changes have yet to understand their consequences.

That will also change.

[careful_eugene]

have yet to understand their consequences.

This is true and also why I believe that mass immigration into the UK will continue after March. I think most of us are here because we understand the limits to growth.

[Potemkin Villager]

The consequences of Hard Brexit, WTO tariffs, end of freedom of movement etc, will be positive for the working classes of Britain.

I disagree and I am pretty certain you do not really believe this either. IMHO this idea is totally delusional or presented cynically to bolster arguments that are based on a core belief, akin to an almost religious belief, that a hard brexit will lead to some sort of unlikely nirvana and solve loads of pressing societal problems.

[UndercoverElephant]

The government will be desperate to do trade deals around the world after March and will agree to anything including free movement.

With India and Africa? No way.

With CANZUK maybe. But that would lead to net emigrations. Can't see Australia going for it.

[careful_eugene]

The government will be desperate to do trade deals around the world after March and will agree to anything including free movement.

With India and Africa? No way.

With CANZUK maybe. But that would lead to net emigrations. Can't see Australia going for it.

British ministers say a free trade deal with India is a priority after Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... eal-brexit

[Lord Beria3]

The consequences of Hard Brexit, WTO tariffs, end of freedom of movement etc, will be positive for the working classes of Britain.

I disagree and I am pretty certain you do not really believe this either. IMHO this idea is totally delusional or presented cynically to bolster arguments that are based on a core belief, akin to an almost religious belief, that a hard brexit will lead to some sort of unlikely nirvana and solve loads of pressing societal problems.

I do think my view is right.

Remember I'm a greerist and he has a good track record.

Cutting the numbers of foreign workers alone will lead to wage inflation in the UK. In fact, its already started, why don't you acknowledge it?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 89366.html

Many UK firms are finding it more difficult to recruit the staff they need after a fall in net migration from the EU, a new report has said.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said 40 per cent of employers had more problems filling vacancies than they did last year. This has led to a boost in wages for those in certain jobs, the report noted.

Of course, the cat was let out of the bag at the beginning of the referendum campaign by the head of Remain who admitted as such...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsto ... -says.html

Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit

The Guardian reading posh Remainers must have been horrified!!!

[Potemkin Villager]

Neither of the articles provide any clear evidence of anything very clear at all.

The subjects of both have their own agendas and present their case in (partially deliberate) confusing terms. There is also the small matter that if EU immigration is totally stopped then where are the people to be found to fill the skills gaps?

Lord Rose manages to reverse his position from " if a British exit leads to restrictions on EU migrants, then “the price of labour will, frankly, go up.�
to the much more on message "the economic impact of leaving the EU would mean that the “lowest paid would suffer the most� Wage rates depend on a large range of factors, including the supply of labour and overall strength of the economy."

Well take your pick there. I wouldn't believe a word he said about anything.

The Indo article states "As net migration from the EU has fallen the number of applications for low-skilled jobs has dropped from 24 last summer to 20 now." Can you explain what this means? Can it really mean to say the number of applications per vacancy?

I find it hard to believe that with low unemployment there are are in the region of 20 applications for each low-skilled job! Further more even if the figures are correct how is it going to improve people's lot if you only have a 1 in 20 chance of getting a job compared to a 1 in 24 chance?

I am surprised at your new found interest in the welfare of the working classes considering how you dream of a tory government returned with a large majority was so cruelly thwarted by the British voters who stubbornly rerfused to go along with your predictions.

[Lord Beria3]

The reason I backed a Tory government getting a large majority was that it increased the probability of a Hard Brexit outcome which will benefit working class people as Greer has already pointed out.

As you are aware, the last couple of years has been dominated by Brexit to the exclusion of everything else. Whoever ran the government would be entirely focused on Brexit.

As for your comments, they are largely invalid. The Independent article highlights why a tightening labour supply market leads, at some point, to rising wages. Its basic supply and demand.

As for Lord Rose, I'm aware he shifted opinion, but his initial comment is basically the same as Greer's. That's why I pointed it out.

Nobody on the Left wants to admit that the mass migration of low-skilled workers depresses real wages for native workers. Yet it is true and once Brexit leads to a tightening labour market wages will go up for working class Brits.

[Lord Beria3]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... rough.html

The pound surged today on speculation that Britain and German are ready to fudge a Brexit deal to avoid chaos next March.

A fudged Brexit, which leaves the hard issues to down the line, without any real clarity what the eventual outcome will be for the UK, will be hard to swallow for many within parliament.

President Macron has warned of this type of fudge, referring to it as a blind Brexit which prolongs the agony until 2021, and potentially longer. French diplomats think that the transition arrangements will need to be postponed after 2020, into 2021 or even 2022 when the next British ge is.

You could even find, if a fudged Brexit is agreed, that a new Labour government in 2022 could rip up the negotiations and start afresh. The whole saga could drag on to the mid 2020s.

No wonder some within the EU are skeptical whether the German plan is a wise move.

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ion-widget

Not so fast! Germany has denied such a breakthrough!

Ambrose has a far more interesting article on the Brexit situation...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... oes-wrong/

Michel Barnier has overplayed his hand on Brexit. By promoting the option of a ‘Canada’ trade deal so pointedly - both in his interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine and in talks with British MPs - he has given the idea a new legitimacy in Westminster. ‘Canada Plus’ is springing back to life.

Chequers Tories have been utterly dispirited by the Barnier demarche. Tory and Labour Remainers are stunned.

This was not the intention of Mr Barnier. His purpose was to pressure the Government into whittling down Chequers: either accept the Customs Union, swallow EU law across the gamut of services and goods, and give way on free movement; or accept the thin gruel of a limited goods deal - one that should lock in the EU’s £90bn trade surplus, without reciprocation on services, where the EU has a deficit. Such is the Commission’s self-serving theology.

Brussels hoped that this invidious choice would break resistance, counting on the British establishment and the ecclesia militans of Remainerism to help subvert the Referendum. But politics can intrude. Tory tolerance for Chequers - more hated than the poll tax, in the lapidary words of Justine Greening - is vanishing. Scores of marginal seats are in danger. All it will take is another resignation from the Cabinet and the dam might break.

Barnier would have been smarter to go along with May's plans, and slowly mutilate them over the coming months negotiations. The eventual Barnier package would have been a poor version of May's original plan but a bit of vague language would have given her the crumbs to try and take it through parliament.

But he has overplayed his cards and discredited May's plans too early. Canada is back!

[UndercoverElephant]

Canada is back.

Canada is the only thing generally acceptable to the EU which doesn't cross the UK's red lines. But it doesn't solve the Irish border problem, which leaves us with a choice between:

(a) Canada with a hard border in Ireland. (Ireland will veto)
(b) Canada with a hard border in the Irish Sea. (DUP will veto)
(c) No or minimal deal.

[fuzzy]

Canada copes with Quebec and Alaska OK.