Brexit process

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Jul 2018, 21:50

Just looking back on my opening post in this thread. Nobody is talking about Gibraltar now.

Post by **clv101** » 16 Jul 2018, 23:39

It's all getting too much for May's government - they now want to bunk off early!

MPs to vote on early summer recess
Members of Parliament are to vote on whether to start their summer recess this Thursday, instead of next week.

The government has tabled a motion to bring forward the summer break to begin five days earlier than planned. MPs will vote on the motion on Tuesday.

It comes as MPs have been debating changes to the prime minister's plans for leaving the EU.

Labour's Angela Rayner called the motion "pathetic" and said the Tories were frightened of their own MPs.

Labour backbencher David Lammy said this was "a government that has run out of ideas".

MPs will return to the Commons on 4 September.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44853464

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 17 Jul 2018, 12:40

It's like lazy school kids asking the headmaster if they can go on holiday early so they can avoid doing the exams because they are too hard for the poor dears! I have never ever before heard politicians, of all stripes and positions, shamelessly talking so much embarrassing unmitigated sh**e at great length for so long.

Brexit is the gift that just keeps giving.

Post by **adam2** » 17 Jul 2018, 13:12

Presumably, if MPs decide to give themselves an even longer holiday than normal, the salary will be adjusted to reflect this

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 17 Jul 2018, 16:05

UndercoverElephant wrote:Just looking back on my opening post in this thread. Nobody is talking about Gibraltar now.

Undercover Elefant said (I am sure with a veru straight face) "This is totally unexpected and quite extraordinary."

Not af as extraordinary as all that has followed.

Yes the Gib question has got lost in all the noise, static and random utterings. They will probably get dumped on by London just as fast as Norniron it it suits short term interests.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 18 Jul 2018, 22:04

Here's my take.

Britain is heading towards a semi-soft Brexit, as BB outlined a while ago.

https://twitter.com/Berenberg_Econ

Their latest Brexit briefing yesterday notes that there is now a 60% chance of a semi-soft deal.

This semi-soft Brexit will be very similar to the Jersey model, whereby goods and agricultural goods will be part of the EU but the UK will be free to trade and to make its own regulatory on services, which covers 80% of the UK economy and employs 85% of the working population.

Control over free movement is likely to be restored, however, EU migrants, with a confirmed job offer, will likely have some preferential access to the UK.

Overall, that strikes me as a reasonable outcome. Why? Our manufacturing industries are heavily integrated into the European market and would have to comply with EU rules and regulation to sell their goods, whether or not we were in the single market (for goods).

All the talk of a clean Brexit always ignores this point. We can't suddenly stop trading with Europe!

The services market is much more fragmented across the EU and the City can adapt outside the EU.

May's plan isn't prefect, but given the economic reality facing our manufacturing sector, and the lack of the systems and technology to have a fully independent customs, yet, her plan is the most pragmatic option on the plate.

In regard to EU workers, my personal opinion has always been that the mass influx of mainly Slavonic workers into the UK post-2005 was a good thing. Polish and other central-East Europeans are a tough, hard working and well integrated workforce who have been model immigrants.

I would also add that from personal experience, (I'm married to a Pole) they are very worried about the rise of radical Islam within the UK. Slavs will be tough and proud fighters if we ever end up in widespread civil war in the future.

The bigger picture is that the working age population in Poland and other countries is shrinking and there is a growing shortage of workers in Poland. Demand for Poles is growing in Germany and other countries.

Control of our borders is more critical for any future wave of Muslim migration into the EU and/or any attempt by European populations to flee to Europe should things get very ugly in Spain, Italy, Greece and France (e.g. mass invasions by Muslims in the coming decades).

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Jul 2018, 23:45

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Britain is heading towards a semi-soft Brexit

(muslim on the left, Gareth Bale on the right)

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Jul 2018, 22:21

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -wto-march

In reality, everyone knowledgeable about Brexit agrees on what will really happen if there is no deal in March. Nothing will change. Planes will keep flying. Ferries will keep loading. Channel Tunnel officials will wave vehicles through. Orders will go out to keep moving, and await further instructions. People at the coalface of the European economy cannot afford the posturing, vanity and idiocy of the Brexit parliament this past week. They have lives to live and mouths to feed. A closed border with the EU, not least in Ireland, would be like closing the Berlin Wall after it had reopened. There would be riots. That is why crashing out would not mean hard Brexit, but rather remain in all but name. When Brexit fantasy hits practical reality, reality will win.

I don't know what to believe anymore. If half the press and most of the internet is to be believed, a no-deal brexit means planes stop flying, 2 minute checks on all vehicles at all ports, all UK citizens in Europe (and vice versa) are no longer allowed to work, etc.... And yet Simon Jenkins writing in the Guardian says nothing will change. I literally have no idea who is correct. Neither to I have any idea whether we are going to end up with a no-deal brexit, a GE and a second referendum leading to a remain victory, whether the EU would let us back in even if that did happen, whether there's going to be an extension and for how long... The only thing that seems to be really unlikely is anything resembling a sensible deal being agreed by both the UK parliament and the EU.

It can't go on like this. We can't just keep heading towards deadline day with nobody having any idea what is actually going to happen. It's insane. How can anybody, personally or in business at any scale, make any plans?

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 19 Jul 2018, 22:50

Please remember we've not actually left, and won't till 29th March (unless something happens before then and we actually *don't* leave).

In addition, the EU (as in M. Barnier the negociant) has said several (dozen) times that we're welcome-back any time before then as if nothing had ever happened.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 19 Jul 2018, 23:15

If we don't leave there will be riots.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Jul 2018, 23:41

Little John wrote:If we don't leave there will be riots.

If we do leave, and it's a no-deal, and the general theme of the talking heads is correct, then there will be riots.

There is no possible outcome that isn't going to piss off one group or another in a very major way, unless Simon Jenkins is correct and "no deal" actually means "business as usual". Which seems unlikely. But then again so does the idea of all flights being grounded.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Jul 2018, 00:03

What...pampered spoilt, middle class riots? If the Anti-Trump crybaby festival was anything to go by, I don't think they will amount to much.

As for riots from the rest of us; sure, there could be riots if food or other essentials get tight. However, those things will only get tight for one of two reasons in the near future. either it will be due to a F--k up in the world economy that was coming anyway and Brexit will have nothing to do with it. Or, it will be due to what would basically amount to an act of war by the EU against the UK. In which case we were right to leave.

Additionally, what is all this "all flights grounded" and a load of other sky-falling-in bullshit coming out of the MSM over the last few days? Do those countries in the world who trade with the EU, but are not a member of it, suffer with the sky falling in as a consequence? The answer is no. so, the only way the kind of catastrophic consequences of the type you describe will occur, is if they are manufactured by either the EU and/or a traitorous UK ruling class, in order to bounce us back into the EU.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Jul 2018, 01:46

Little John wrote: Additionally, what is all this "all flights grounded" and a load of other sky-falling-in bullshit coming out of the MSM over the last few days? Do those countries in the world who trade with the EU, but are not a member of it, suffer with the sky falling in as a consequence? The answer is no. so, the only way the kind of catastrophic consequences of the type you describe will occur, is if they are manufactured by either the EU and/or a traitorous UK ruling class, in order to bounce us back into the EU.

"Manufactured by the EU" isn't quite right, but right in spirit.

The EU could have agreed a deal on keeping flights in the air very easily by now, because we already have aligned regulations, and the UK would happily agree to ECJ jurisdiction in this limited regard. The reason it hasn't is due to the sequencing of talks TM should never have accepted: this sort of discussion can only come after agreement on the Irish Border, even though this has nothing to do with aviation.

Will the EU back down at the last moment and agree a deal on aviation without a long-term solution to the Irish Border Problem?

I have no idea.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Jul 2018, 08:33

What Irish border problem? Spell it out please UE.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 20 Jul 2018, 11:44

Why not a system of two lanes in and out of NI? One for declaring goods, the other 'nothing to declare'. I know which one would have weeds growing down the centre of it.