Brexit process

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 15 Jul 2018, 18:10

Little John wrote:This is the kind of area I live in. These are my kind of people. They are not right wing.

And if anyone has a problem with people like this, they can go f**k themselves.

I know I could have put that more eloquently. But, I don't want to

https://vimeo.com/172932182

I grew up very near this area. I can understand the rage against the poverty. It was pretty grim there in the 70s and 80s and it's still grim there now when I visit my hometown. What I don't really understand is the hope that leaving the EU will fix any of it. If I'm honest I've always looked to the EU as a last defence against a right wing that prioritises individual wealth and power for the few over community stability, social care, and mutual support. I realise many people see the EU as The Problem and Undemocratic, but I'm so afraid of how much worse off places like my hometown are going to be without it, not to mention the poverty in Cornwall where I now live. The woman in the video reckons it can't get any worse, but I'm pretty sure it can.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 15 Jul 2018, 20:23

If you think that the EU is the "last defense" against the Right wing of this country, you don;t understand the history of why the EU was brought into being in the first place, nor of its fundamentally [un]democratic structures today Tess. The EU is, an anti-democratic, globalist, neo-liberal club at heart. I am sorry to be so blunt about that. But there it is.

And yes, it can get much worse. And it will. At which point, the democratic process that was Brexit will look like the mere aperitif to the main party

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Jul 2018, 12:29

Brexit is dead, Steve. And no amount of sabre-rattling about civil war will save it.

There is no majority in the HoC for TM's awful compromise, and that's even before the EU has "fixed" it. She can't back down on it either (towards a harder brexit) because the EU won't accept that. Which means, by default, we'd be heading towards a no-deal hard brexit, but there's no majority in the HoC for that either. While Labour won't vote with the tories for TM's deal, they will vote with tory rebels to prevent a hard brexit. How? Tories won't vote for a GE, and there probably aren't the numbers to win a no-confidence vote against TM any time soon, so the answer is that those tories will threaten to bring down the government unless TM gets an article 50 extension and holds a second referendum. It's rapidly becoming the only way out of the impasse.

Next question - what will the referendum question be? TPTB will try to make sure that hard brexit isn't on the ballot paper, and if they get their way then brexit is dead, because TM's deal won't beat remain. But that might not fly politically, so there will have to be three options on the ballot paper - remain, the awful deal, or no deal. Also, such a referendum would have to be held under STV - people would need to specify their 1st, 2nd and 3rd preferences, and assuming none of those options got 50% of 1st choices, the position that came last in the first round would get its second preferences redistributed. At which point it is game, set and match to the remainers, because they can legitimately claim this second referendum is fair, and remain is pretty much guaranteed to win under STV.

Game over.

Yes, at least 30% of the population will be ready to violently protest, and it is likely to tear the tory party in two. Would also cause major problems for labour, but it is really labour voters who support brexit more than members and MPs. And UKIP will become popular again, probably with Farage at the helm. But brexit will be dead, because it will have been established that there is no such thing as a soft brexit that is worth having, and I do not believe that a no-deal hard brexit will ever beat remain in a third, genuinely in-out referendum.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 16 Jul 2018, 14:32

Brexit is a small part of something much bigger that has barely started and is now unstoppable. The only thing that can be achieved is to ride it out and steer it in as civilized a manner as possible. But, it will not be ignored. Winter is coming and, if you think Brexit over, you have seen nothing yet. What you have witnessed thus far are merely the first flurries of snowfall.

At the very least, if Brexit is dead under the administration of the current political class, there will in very short order, be a major realignment of politics in this country. A realignment that will, in due course, make the current incarnation of UKIP look tame.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Jul 2018, 14:47

Little John wrote:. A realignment that will, in due course, make the current incarnation of UKIP look tame.

Maybe. But with "soft brexit" eliminate as a realistic possible outcome, it is hard to see what a resurgent UKIP can achieve.

Also, if Corbyn's labour party manages to get into power while the tories lie in ruins having split in two, radical changes are possible.

Snail · Post by **Snail** » 16 Jul 2018, 14:55

Part of the reason I voted brexit was to test and stretch politics, and as a possible stepping stone onto something else. But if brexit doesn't happen, then this tells me that 'democracy' has effectively stopped. After all, lots of people were already disillusioned with politics before the referendum but brexit seemed to (had the potential to) bring democracy back to the people. But a no-brexit tells me something valuable.

I dont believe that our political system can now deliver a realignment of politics or radical change as talked about above. Even with Jeremy Corbyn as pm, not Jeremy Corbyn's labour party.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 16 Jul 2018, 15:47

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:. A realignment that will, in due course, make the current incarnation of UKIP look tame.
Maybe. But with "soft brexit" eliminate as a realistic possible outcome, it is hard to see what a resurgent UKIP can achieve.

Also, if Corbyn's labour party manages to get into power while the tories lie in ruins having split in two, radical changes are possible.

Labour's current stance on Brexit could well cost them the next election.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Jul 2018, 15:58

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:. A realignment that will, in due course, make the current incarnation of UKIP look tame.
Maybe. But with "soft brexit" eliminate as a realistic possible outcome, it is hard to see what a resurgent UKIP can achieve.

Also, if Corbyn's labour party manages to get into power while the tories lie in ruins having split in two, radical changes are possible.
Labour's current stance on Brexit could well cost them the next election.

Not if the tories are split and in total disarray.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 16 Jul 2018, 17:38

So you reckon Labour are not split and in total disarray over Brexit?

Have you seen the latest polling shift since the Chequers meeting and subsequent white paper?

Tory support has dropped by 6% (from 42% to 36%) But, almost all of that has been on the back of a resurgence of support for UKIP (who have risen by 5% (from 3% to 8%). The loss of Tory support has almost entirely not been on the back of those votes going over to Labour, whose polling has remained static (at 40%). Meanwhile, the Liberal democrats have gained 1% (from 7% to 8%). So, the majority shift in support is towards more hard line Brexit Brexit parties. Not away from them.

So, as things currently stand in the polls, the best Labour are likely to be able to achieve is a lame duck minority government no more effective than the Tories and it will take very little collapse in Labour support by working class voters sick of their stance on Brexit to kill even that outcome. With that in mind, to the extent that Labour support since the Chequers meeting has remained static, this is only due to them keeping their heads down and not having to stand on the parapets of public opinion to the same extent as the Tory party are being forced to do right now. In an election, this would no longer be the case and their equivocal stance on Brexit would cost them as dearly as it is currently costing the Tories.

In other words, if the political class continue to ignore the people, then I think there is a very real possibility of a completely hung parliament between a much weakened Tory and Labour party and the third party, holding the balance of power, being UKIP. And, if that does not happen at the next election, it will surely happen at the one after that with either UKIP or some other, as yet unknown political entity, coming into being as the third party.

The genie is out of the bottle and its not going back in now.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Jul 2018, 18:26

Little John wrote:So you reckon Labour are not split and in total disarray over Brexit?

Not to the same extent, no. Labour voters are split, but members and MPs are nothing like as split as the tories are.

For the tories, this issue is absolutely existential. The brexiteers are committed to a hard brexit out of a deep-felt, visceral desire for independence, because they see the EU as taking the power that is their birthright. And the pro-EU tories are utterly committed to remaining in the EU, because it is so important for high finance, big business and the corporations - in other words they care deeply about the interests of the rich and powerful who stand to lose quite a lot if the UK leaves the EU. For them is about big money, and the tories care deeply about big money.

It's simpler for Labour. It is really about immigration and class inequality, and while there are serious potential problems, I don't think the Labour party will tear itself in two about this issue. It will, however, risk losing quite a lot of potential votes to UKIP or the libdems, depending which way they bend.

In other words, if the political class continue to ignore the people, then I think there is a very real possibility of a completely hung parliament between a much weakened Tory and Labour party and the third party, holding the balance of power, being UKIP. And, if that does not happen at the next election, it will surely happen at the one after that with either UKIP or some other, as yet unknown political entity, coming into being as the third party.

It is possible UKIP will end up holding the balance of power, and that they'll demand another referendum as their price. However, I do not believe they will win it, because it will be a straight choice between leaving with no deal, and remaining.

The genie is out of the bottle and its not going back in now.

It might fester for a long time without doing much, though.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 16 Jul 2018, 18:40

What, like the kind of "not much" that has happened, politically in the West thus far.

That kind of "not much"?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Jul 2018, 19:10

Little John wrote:What, like the kind of "not much" that has happened, politically in the West thus far.

That kind of "not much"?

Not much as in the UK won't actually leave the EU. People will just get more and more pissed off.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 16 Jul 2018, 19:31

Yes they will. And that will be expressed in the polls. Or it will be expressed in the streets.

The "centre" will not hold. This is not going away.

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 16 Jul 2018, 21:41

In 10 years we'll look back on this and laugh at how stupid we all were. Likely all previous 'crisis' it WILL go away as the next one approaches. Memories are very short for most people.

I still find it laughable that we're talking about democratic mandates as if the population aren't allowed to change their minds should they wish to do so. It's obvious the politicians can't sort it out between them so they will kick it into touch with a referendum and blame the people instead.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Jul 2018, 21:42

Snail wrote:Part of the reason I voted brexit was to test and stretch politics, and as a possible stepping stone onto something else. But if brexit doesn't happen, then this tells me that 'democracy' has effectively stopped. After all, lots of people were already disillusioned with politics before the referendum but brexit seemed to (had the potential to) bring democracy back to the people. But a no-brexit tells me something valuable.

I dont believe that our political system can now deliver a realignment of politics or radical change as talked about above. Even with Jeremy Corbyn as pm, not Jeremy Corbyn's labour party.

Corbyn coming to power with the tories split on a brexit that didn't happen has the potential for very significant change. Not change on a scale that can save us from collapse, but change that matters compared to anything that happened since Thatcher. He could potentially change the terms of the permitted discussion, like she did, but in the other direction.