Yet Corbyn's decision to neuter his own pro-Brussels MPs by ordering abstention helped ensure the Prime Minister avoided what would have been a calamitous defeat.
Agree with this analysis. Membership of the EEA, aka soft Brexit, was a real risk during that vote. Corbyn has saved the prospects of a harder Brexit, maybe not the hard/clean Brexit of some of those on this forum, but at least a semi-soft Brexit.
Semi-soft Brexit (40% chance): This remains the most likely scenario. The UK stays close enough to EU rules for many goods – ie a customs “arrangement’� and some services to avoid a hard border in Ireland. UK remainers could support a deal that keeps the UK partly aligned with the EU, while the Brexiteers could back such an agreement as it would offer the UK room to pursue its non-EU ambitions at least for services.
The table 13 is also very good - sums up where we will likely end up.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
adam2 wrote:We should save money by leaving the EU, and should not have to contribute to the coming bailout of Italy, and whoever busts after Italy.
We should be able to ditch some of the sillier EU regulations, whilst hopefully adopting some of the more sensible bits.
We should have more control over our borders.
But will you? My cynical view is that nobody will be satisfied with what eventually comes to pass.
I agree that only a small minority will be pleased with the eventual outcome.
Presuming that we do actually leave, then remainers are pretty well certain to be dissatisfied.
And a fair proportion of leavers will be also be dissatisfied, since whilst supporting leaving in general terms they will believe that it should have been done differently.
Had the vote been the other way, then leavers would obviously have been dissatisfied, and many remainers also would have wanted to remain but on different terms, and would also have been unhappy.
That however is life.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
You are both ignoring the trajectory of history. In five year's time Leavers will be even more pissed off than they are now and a certain portion of Remainers will have joined them in that sentiment.
Ten years from now, a massive majority will be Leavers. Assuming there is anything left to for the remaining Remainers to remain with by then anyway. Twenty years form now, the majority of mainstream politicians of today will be branded as traitors to their nation - and not just for the way Brexit has been handled.
Last edited by Little John on 17 Jun 2018, 19:57, edited 2 times in total.
Little John wrote:You are both ignoring the trajectory of history. In five year's time Leavers will be even more pissed off than they are now and a certain portion of Remainers will have joined them in that sentiment.
Ten years from now, a massive majority will be Remainers. Assuming there is anything left to Remain with by then anyway. Twenty years form now, the majority of mainstream politicians of today will be branded as traitors to their nation - and not just for the way Brexit has been handled.
You should have voted Tory in May 2017 if you felt so strongly about a hard Brexit. Got no sympathy with you.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
I am a socialist by virtue of my natural inclinations.
I am a nationalist by virtue of an intellectual acceptance of the inevitability of what is to come and what is inevitably required to survive it.
It is clear that Labour are not capable of meeting the challenge of what is to come. However, it is even more clear the same is true of the Tories for slightly different, but related reasons.
Little John wrote:You are both ignoring the trajectory of history. In five year's time Leavers will be even more pissed off than they are now and a certain portion of Remainers will have joined them in that sentiment.
Ten years from now, a massive majority will be Remainers. Assuming there is anything left to Remain with by then anyway. Twenty years form now, the majority of mainstream politicians of today will be branded as traitors to their nation - and not just for the way Brexit has been handled.
You should have voted Tory in May 2017 if you felt so strongly about a hard Brexit. Got no sympathy with you.
I am not sure there would have been a hard brexit had TM won a larger majority in 2017, and that election wasn't just about brexit anyway.
Had TM won a larger majority, it would have just meant the "rebels" would have been more comfortable causing her problems, because they wouldn't have had to risk bringing their own government down in if they threw spanners in the brexit works. Remember she was a remainer, and never supported a hard brexit (never meant "no deal is a better than a bad deal", even if she said it).
The ge was called on Brexit and giving May a big mandate to take on Brussels.
The Labour Leave vote decided to keep voting Labour rather then vote Tory (for the first and if so, last time).
Labour, despite Corbyn's Brexiteer instincts, is far more united in their support for a soft Brexit then the Tory MPs.
We will never know for certain but it seems fair to assume that May would have had better leverage in the negotiations with a large majority for her hard Brexit plans then the current situation.
If you wanted a hard Brexit, the best thing was to vote Tory in 2017. After 2020, the whole thing would have been done and voting Corbyn would make logical sense, if you are a socialist and a nationalist.
By voting Labour in 2017, you essentially voted for a softer Brexit.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
I accept the argument about Labour leave voters (which is to say, 70% of all Labour constituencies - if constituencies are mapped onto the referendum result, voted to leave) having been betrayed by the PLP.
Which is why, despite the shambolic nature of this government, they are currently leading Labour, at the last polling, by 7%.
If Labour do not significantly change their tune on Brexit before the next GE, I thin it highly likely they will lose that GE. However, they have gone so far down the path of reneging on their initial pledge to "honour" the referendum result that it may already be too late for them to change their tune believably now.
So, I have fully acknowledged Labour's part in the mess we are currently in. Because I am honest with myself as well as you.
Do you have the capacity to demonstrate a similar honesty vis a vis the Tories' role in all of this LB? Or, are the kind of unthinking tribal loyalties you are accusing me of, going to stop you from doing that?
The biggest failure of the Tories was to not spend billions, if necessary, on a no deal outcome. The option of walking away is powerful leverage and we failed to do it.
My understanding is that hammond refused to spend money on these preparations and it was one reason why May was planning to fire him if the Tories had increased their majority. If course they blew it and Hammond was afterwards unsackable.
The second consequence of the decision by millions of Labour leave voters to not support a hard Brexit mandate by May in the ge was that the post May 2017 parliament did not have a majority for a hard Brexit.
Given a free vote it is likely that the majority of mps would support a soft brexit deal and at best a semi soft brexit outcome. Without that hard Brexit consensus Mays hands are tied.
I concluded, sadly that by Mays own stupid decision to call a early ge, she had blown the opportunity to drive through a hard or hardish Brexit. The best outcome left was a semi soft outcome which is what she has been aiming for ever since given the parliamentary arithmetic. The Tories have failed to use the cards available but the biggest mistake was 1) calling a ge and 2) the Labour leave vote not voting for May.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
I concluded, sadly that by Mays own stupid decision to call a early ge, she had blown the opportunity to drive through a hard or hardish Brexit. The best outcome left was a semi soft outcome which is what she has been aiming for ever since given the parliamentary arithmetic. The Tories have failed to use the cards available but the biggest mistake was 1) calling a ge and 2) the Labour leave vote not voting for May.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing LB3. I seem to remember you very gung ho at one point about what a smart move it was to call an election that you were convinced was going to return a large tory majority!
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
I failed to realize how much Tory Remain voting voters would turn to Labour during the election and the failure of Labour working class Leave voters to vote for May's hard Brexit mandate.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
