Brexit process

[Little John]

What could follow UKIP, or Trump for that matter, if the trials of the people at the bottom of the social strata are not addressed in short order, will make both of them look tame by comparison.

[kenneal - lagger]

What annoys me intensely is the Remoaners who constantly complain about the government cocking things up when it is they, with their constant sniping and griping, who have consistently undermined the government's position and have derailed any position that the government has tried to negotiate. If we don't get a Brexit deal it will be exactly what they want; what they have campaigned for; and what they will complain about under the pretence of doing their best for the country. Bunch of hypocrites!

[Lord Beria3]

Calm down folks!!!

We're getting a semi soft brexit.

Inside a de jure or de facto customs union for goods which solves the Irish border issue. It will mean a close alignment on EU rules post Brexit for goods only.

Outside the single market, meaning we control our borders and will have greater regulatory freedom on laws relating to our service economy.

Is it a hard Brexit? No but soft Leavers and the majority of Remain voters will be happy, including myself.

[UndercoverElephant]

Calm down folks!!!

We're getting a semi soft brexit.

Inside a de jure or de facto customs union for goods which solves the Irish border issue. It will mean a close alignment on EU rules post Brexit for goods only.

Outside the single market, meaning we control our borders and will have greater regulatory freedom on laws relating to our service economy.

https://www.ft.com/content/05dc4920-6b1 ... f3459514fd

Please use the sharing tools found via the email icon at the top of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/05dc4920-6b1 ... f3459514fd

There was only ever one possible answer to avoiding a hard border, and that is either Northern Ireland or the UK as a whole staying in the customs union and the single market for goods. Finally the British government has accepted the inevitable in its “ backstop� proposal: the UK will stay in the customs union, although it will be called something else, and we will have to negotiate regulatory alignment by remaining in the single market for industrial and agricultural goods. The proposal suggests that the UK will be able to negotiate new trade deals with third countries from this position, but you only have to think about that for a moment to realise it is nonsense. The only area where we would have any scope for separate deals would be on services. And who is going to reach a free-trade agreement with the UK on services alone?

David Davis , the Brexit secretary, claims to have fought and won a battle for a firm date for the end of the backstop. But it is clear from the wording of the proposal that he has lost. The end of December 2021 is at best an aspiration, even if it were accepted by the EU. And there cannot logically be a fixed date for the end of the backstop because its end is conditions-based not time-limited. It can only be replaced if the EU and the UK agree on a replacement.

The government has wasted a year arguing about what the new trading relationship with the EU should be. However, the two options it is considering — “maximum facilitation� favoured by the Brexiters in the cabinet and a new “customs partnership� favoured by the rest — aren’t acceptable to the EU.

When the government argues that the backstop is temporary and it does not expect it to be implemented, it is whistling in the wind. Why would the EU accept something worse than the backstop the British government has itself proposed?

Brexit doesn't mean brexit anymore. We were better off staying in the EU than accepting this pile of shit.

All of this means that the UK is now staying in the customs union and, probably, the single market for goods, indefinitely. And on this, and this alone, I agree with the Brexiters. Why on earth would we do that? We end up with a worse deal than even Norway. We would have all the burdens of membership but no say in the rules that we were applying. The bit of the EU we would be leaving — the single market for services — is the one we can profit from above all else.

What are getting is not worth having.

[Lord Beria3]

Disagree.

I live in the channel islands, which has a similar existing relationships with the EU.

We are in the customs union and have to follow the EU rules for goods which, like the UK, is a relatively small part of our economy. Since UK manufacturing is closely integrated with Europe we would have to follow EU rules to sell to Europe whether we were in the customs union or not!

Services is different as we sell across the world and there is greater scope for regulatory freedom. In the ci, as we are outside the single market, we are not compelled to sign up to daft EU laws and we have freedom to do our own diy versions.

Leavers think that once you leave the EU you are free to do what you want and ignore the EU. As long as the EU remains a major trading partner that is impossible as Norway and Switzerland have already found.

In the ci, we are influenced by the eu but have far greater freedom and controls then if we were members of the eu. It's not perfect.

A semi soft Brexit isn't perfect either buy it is certainly better then remaining within the EU which will either become more federal or collapse over the next decade should the euro disintegrate.

[fuzzy]

Goods and trade used to be all of the channel island economy until it became a tax dodging centre. Now there is little for any locals to do except grovel to the rich. They can't afford property as overseas buyers need a residency to avoid local tax. It is a prostitute governed region.

[Lord Beria3]

Fuzzy, that is beside the point.

The ci has a finance orientated services economy but in relation to the UK the same principal applies in relation to the EU.

Same with Norway and Switzerland.

[Lord Beria3]

https://forecastingintelligence.org

As I note in my recent post change is coming the semi soft brexit outcome is explored in further detail and was coined by Berenberg Bank.

My preference was for a harder/cleaner Brexit but due to the failure of the UK government to prepare for a no deal brexit and the hung parliament vote last year made a harder Brexit impossible.

A semi soft Brexit is the best we can hope for.

[Little John]

Then civil disorder and insurrection is what we will get.

[clv101]

Then civil disorder and insurrection is what we will get.

What's your timeline for this civil unrest and bloodshed you often talk of? Are you thinking months to year or so as a discontinuity (Arab Spring, 2014 Ukraine) or are you thinking a decade or two away as part of the gradual and inevitable collapse?

[Little John]

Predicting specific timelines is a mug's game. But, if pushed I can't see things panning out as they are any longer than another decade or so before things start to get really unpleasant on home turf. And by unpleasant, I think the kind of breakdown we had in NI, but across the entire UK, or something like it, is not out of the realms of possibility. Ironically, the only thing that is likely to forestall or at least mitigate the above is a nationalist AND socialist government taking the reigns of power through the democratic process and enacting measures that will appease the mass of people. To the extent that both nationalism and socialism are being thoroughly resisted by the existing political class and the mass media that supports it, will only mean that when the pendulum finally swings, that swing will be all the more violent. And we may just end up with the nationalism.

I also think all of the above is coming to countries on the European continent quite a bit sooner.

[Lord Beria3]

Predicting specific timelines is a mug's game. But, if pushed I can't see things panning out as they are any longer than another decade or so before things start to get really unpleasant on home turf. And by unpleasant, I think the kind of breakdown we had in NI, but across the entire UK, or something like it, is not out of the realms of possibility. Ironically, the only thing that is likely to forestall or at least mitigate the above is a nationalist AND socialist government taking the reigns of power through the democratic process and enacting measures that will appease the mass of people. To the extent that both nationalism and socialism are being thoroughly resisted by the existing political class and the mass media that supports it, will only mean that when the pendulum finally swings, that swing will be all the more violent. And we may just end up with the nationalism.

I also think all of the above is coming to countries on the European continent quite a bit sooner.

Oddly enough I agree with you Little John.

I think by 2030 the chances of serious civil unrest is high for the UK. I don't think the Brexit outcome will trigger it, as the section of the British electorate that is most likely to riot is the working classes.

These voters voted for Brexit primarily to gain control of the borders and leaving the single market will deliver that outcome.

It will be the further collapse of our current status quo political economic model that will likely lead to serious unrest. That will be triggered by energy shortages which will kick in by the end of the next decade.

[Potemkin Villager]

Before things get totally surreal can somebody please explain to me just who will benefit from Brexit and how they will benefit?

[Little John]

Democrats will benefit. They will benefit by having more democracy.

[adam2]

We should save money by leaving the EU, and should not have to contribute to the coming bailout of Italy, and whoever busts after Italy.

We should be able to ditch some of the sillier EU regulations, whilst hopefully adopting some of the more sensible bits.

We should have more control over our borders.