Gas alert as demand and prices rise

[adam2]

UK natural gas stocks are still only about 10,000GWH, a rather low figure for the time of year.
Prices are over 2 pence per KWH, an unusually high figure for this time of year.

[adam2]

Reuters recently published a news story about the inadequacy of UK natural gas storage.
There seems to be a general view that somethings needs to be done to reduce our severe vulnerability to any supply problems.

[adam2]

As the discussion had diverged somewhat from the intended topic of natural gas stocks, prices, and future availability, I have moved a number of posts to a new thread.

Discussions about energy efficiency and the embodied energy in wind turbines and other generating plant are of course welcome, but I felt that these deserved their own thread.

The new thread may be found here
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... hp?t=26846

[cubes]

I think the "something that will be done" will end up being nothing. Then soem heads will roll and we'll finally get some action but will be way behind where it needs to be for years.

[adam2]

After stagnating for a couple of months at around 10,000GWH, gas stocks have now increased significantly to just over 13,000GWH.
A paltry figure compared to years gone by, but still better than not increasing.
We remain very vulnerable to any supply shocks.

Prices remain at about 2p/KWH, not remarkable but rather high for this time of year. I expect increases in retail prices, followed by the predictable howls of anguish.

[adam2]

Gas stocks have now increased to about 16,500GWH, a significant improvement over a few weeks ago.
Still only about half full though.

Prices remain at about 2pence a KWH, not remarkable but rather high for the time of year. I expect more retail price increases before the coming winter.

We remain very vulnerable to any supply shocks, and are indirectly rather reliant on Russian gas. Although we obtain little gas direct from Russia, we do import gas from mainland Europe, and they in turn ARE very reliant on Russia.

Winter drawdown rates from stocks vary but a fairly typical rate is about 1600GWH a day, so at that rate we have enough for about 10 days.
Drawdown rates have reached as much as 2000GWH a day, or about 8 days in that case.

A state of panic would be needed before stocks were completely exhausted, perhaps after only a few days.

[kenneal - lagger]

At least natural gas is not the sort of thing that the average consumer can hoard!

[adam2]

Natural gas stocks have now increased to about 19,700, a useful increase.
Before any undue optimism breaks out, it should be remembered that this is very low indeed if compared to figures of a few years ago.

Wholesale prices remain steady, but a level rather higher than the norm for recent years. British gas have announced the second retail price increase this year. Other suppliers are expected to follow.
I expect increases in electricity prices also, as a large proportion of our electricity comes from gas.

We are increasingly vulnerable to any disruption to imports.

Any interruption to imports by ship OR by pipeline would have serious consequences in a week or two.
Any interruption to supplies by ship AND to pipeline imports would have almost immediate serious consequences.

[adam2]

Gas stocks remain at about 21,000Gwh.

Prices have increased significantly, by about 20% from about 2 pence a Kwh up to about 2.4 pence, in only a couple of weeks.
And let us remember that the previous price of 2 pence was in itself a considerable increase on the about 1.5 pence seen in previous years.

Prices have previously been higher, but these have been short term spikes driven by cold weather or fears over shortages.

I am not aware of any reasons suggesting that the current price is a short term spike. I suspect that it might be due simply to depletion, and therefore be permanent.
Higher prices than the present 2.4 pence a Kwh are likely as winter approaches.

If the present price IS maintained, I expect significant retail price increases in gas and in electricity, these would be in addition to any increases already announced.

If wholesale prices reach a SUSTAINED 5 pence a Kwh, as distinct from a brief spike, then I expect a state of panic.

[kenneal - lagger]

This price increase is not good as it will increase pressure to frack for gas in the UK.

[mikepepler]

The spot market price yesterday (30 Aug) was 2.422p/kWh. I've kept track over time, and this is the highest price I've got on record for the time of year. Here's a comparison to past ones for 30 Aug:

2018: 2.4220 p/kWh
2017: 1.5716 p/kWh
2016: 0.9087 p/kWh
2015: 1.3177 p/kWh
2014: 1.5800 p/kWh
2013: 2.1807 p/kWh
2012: 1.9674 p/kWh
2011: 2.0832 p/kWh
2010: 1.5219 p/kWh
2009: 0.6312 p/kWh

This time last year Rough had closed to new gas, but was still available to deliver the remaining cushion gas to the system. I assume it will be doing this again this winter, but perhaps the output will be lower?

[boisdevie]

I've just bought Merino thermal underwear and will shortly get a down sleeping bag - just a few useful preps for a hard winter

[kenneal - lagger]

Must get started on cutting up our logs for winter. The wood, a mixture of hard and soft wood, has been stacked for up to two years now so should burn nicely in a couple of months time.

[RenewableCandy]

We have a tog15 quilt stashed in the wardrobe for emergencies, and I'm beginning to saw up wood, including the decking we had removed in the spring.

Yesterday we lit the wood-burner for the first time this season.

[kenneal - lagger]

Apart from for hot water, we won't need to burn any logs for a month or two unless we get a really cold spell. Thermal mass from the summer will see to that.