Gas alert as demand and prices rise
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- adam2
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Gas stocks now about 6,400GWH, a rather low figure by historical standards but probably fine so late in the season.
Unless some truly exceptional event or series of events occurs the panic is now over for this season.
Although we did not actually run out of gas, we came very close indeed, and it could be argued that we DID run out of affordable gas when prices peaked at about TEN times normal.
A great deal of wind power, and a reversion to significant coal burning saved the day.
Next year might be worse, since we wont have the dregs still being extracted from Rough, and North Sea production will be another year down the slope of decline.
Less chance of coal burning also since AFAIK another 2GW of coal burning capacity will close before next winter.
Unless some truly exceptional event or series of events occurs the panic is now over for this season.
Although we did not actually run out of gas, we came very close indeed, and it could be argued that we DID run out of affordable gas when prices peaked at about TEN times normal.
A great deal of wind power, and a reversion to significant coal burning saved the day.
Next year might be worse, since we wont have the dregs still being extracted from Rough, and North Sea production will be another year down the slope of decline.
Less chance of coal burning also since AFAIK another 2GW of coal burning capacity will close before next winter.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
- RenewableCandy
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- RenewableCandy
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- adam2
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Indeed, the weather around Easter is expected to be a bit colder than average, but nothing exceptional.woodburner wrote:Every year about this time, we get easterly or north-easterly winds that may last up to a week (or more). Now some sound-bite maker has invented “the beast from the east�. It’s just normal weather.
Any increase in heating demand should be more than offset by the holidays.
Unless some truly exceptional event occurs, I do not expect any gas supply issues until next winter.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
- adam2
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Natural gas stocks fluctuate daily but remain at around the 7,000GWH level.
With winter gone, this stock level would not normally be grounds for concern.
However with geopolitical tensions in various places that could affect supplies, we are rather vulnerable.
Any significant disruption to imports could have serious consequences in a relatively short time.
With winter gone, this stock level would not normally be grounds for concern.
However with geopolitical tensions in various places that could affect supplies, we are rather vulnerable.
Any significant disruption to imports could have serious consequences in a relatively short time.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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Does this include LNG Stocks in import gasification places like Milford Haven and Isle of Grain.adam2 wrote:Natural gas stocks fluctuate daily but remain at around the 7,000GWH level.
With winter gone, this stock level would not normally be grounds for concern.
However with geopolitical tensions in various places that could affect supplies, we are rather vulnerable.
- adam2
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Yes, we have LNG stocks and medium range storage. The total of the two is about 7,000GWH.
We used to have, short range storage which is no longer used.
And long range storage which is broken.
At a winter withdrawal rate of 1,000GWH a day we have enough for a week.
At a mild weather withdrawal rate it might last about a month.
Of course HMG would not wait until it was empty before declaring a state of emergency.
Under present circumstances with stocks for about a month, I would expect that serious disruption to imports would trigger a state of emergency when stocks dropped to about 3,500.
The remaining two weeks stocks could then be eked out for a lot longer than two weeks. It would depend on how strict the emergency controls on were.
We used to have, short range storage which is no longer used.
And long range storage which is broken.
At a winter withdrawal rate of 1,000GWH a day we have enough for a week.
At a mild weather withdrawal rate it might last about a month.
Of course HMG would not wait until it was empty before declaring a state of emergency.
Under present circumstances with stocks for about a month, I would expect that serious disruption to imports would trigger a state of emergency when stocks dropped to about 3,500.
The remaining two weeks stocks could then be eked out for a lot longer than two weeks. It would depend on how strict the emergency controls on were.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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- adam2
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Total gas stocks have increased only a little to 8,300GWH in the last couple of weeks.
Not of any great near term concern, but a more rapid filling might be better so as to be prepared for any future supply interruptions.
Not of any great near term concern, but a more rapid filling might be better so as to be prepared for any future supply interruptions.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
- adam2
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This looks to me to be a potentially worrying development.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44052601
A north sea gas field that supplies about 5% of UK natural gas demand is part owned by Iran, and part owned by BP.
BP wish to sell their share so as not be seen to be breaking US sanctions on Iran.
"The chairman of Serica, Tony Craven-Walker, told the BBC he was still hopeful that the deal would close and that there would be no interruption to a major source of gas for UK families and businesses."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44052601
A north sea gas field that supplies about 5% of UK natural gas demand is part owned by Iran, and part owned by BP.
BP wish to sell their share so as not be seen to be breaking US sanctions on Iran.
"The chairman of Serica, Tony Craven-Walker, told the BBC he was still hopeful that the deal would close and that there would be no interruption to a major source of gas for UK families and businesses."
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
AT this moment (2:30pm sat) gas is the 4th largest source of power in the UK after solar, nuclear and wind in that order.
53% of total supply renewable.
UNder ideal circumstances we could see direct fossil fuel electricity fall to zero for short periods, as both solar and wind could be higher by about 3GW each.
53% of total supply renewable.
UNder ideal circumstances we could see direct fossil fuel electricity fall to zero for short periods, as both solar and wind could be higher by about 3GW each.