Gas alert as demand and prices rise

Post by **mikepepler** » 07 Mar 2018, 16:04

Sorry Adam, I was wrong - it does have today's date on it now, referring to the position at 5am this morning. Storage is down from 4,770GWh yesterday to 4,419 GWh this morning. So withdrawals have dropped off, but not refilling yet.

LNG figures not updated yet, but presumably the tank that was due yesterday will have offloaded as expected.

Post by **adam2** » 07 Mar 2018, 16:09

Updated in the last few minutes, total of LNG and MRS is now 6,700.
So no tanker deliveries yet included.

Post by **mikepepler** » 07 Mar 2018, 16:53

adam2 wrote:Updated in the last few minutes, total of LNG and MRS is now 6,700.
So no tanker deliveries yet included.

Though LNG crept up slightly, so maybe the unloading started just before 5am today, and tomorrow's figures will be higher.

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 07 Mar 2018, 18:45

kenneal - lagger wrote:Has no one in government heard of the value of a Strategic Reserve?

Just in time supply chains are much more highly valued, indeed I would go as far as to say worshiped, by TPTB. If you feel you should be worried by this I would say that you should very much so.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 08 Mar 2018, 00:37

Potemkin Villager wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:Has no one in government heard of the value of a Strategic Reserve?
Just in time supply chains are much more highly valued, indeed I would go as far as to say worshiped, by TPTB. If you feel you should be worried by this I would say that you should very much so.

If transportation and supply chains become less reliable ,(which I expect they eventually will) then someone that has warehoused a large supply will make a profit against those that relied on just in time delivery. Once that happens a lot of people will go back to that system with the volume based on how many come out ahead each year. I would expect a combination strategy where most is supplied "just in time" is balanced by a ware house holding say a fifteen to thirty day supply of those products most valuable during a crisis to be a popular first move. A ware house stocked with generators, non perishable food, canned fuel and water might do quite well in the next few years.

Post by **mikepepler** » 09 Mar 2018, 11:50

Prevailing view not updated again, but the spreadsheet available on this page was updated yesterday:
https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/gas/mar ... ional-data

It gives totals for 5am 8 March of 3,661 GWh in medium range storage, and 2,182 GWh in LNG.

This compares to 7 March figures of 4,419 GWh and 2,270 GWh.

So.... storage is still being drawn on quite a bit, and it looks like not much LNG was offloaded this week.

Post by **adam2** » 09 Mar 2018, 16:31

Total gas stocks now down to 5,800GWH.
Two days ago it was 6,700.
Usage in 48 hours 900GWH.

Enough for 10 to 12 days if withdrawals continue at the present rate.

We will probably muddle through as usual, but the margin is perilously small if something goes wrong.

Post by **mikepepler** » 09 Mar 2018, 19:31

adam2 wrote:We will probably muddle through as usual, but the margin is perilously small if something goes wrong.

Indeed. Although we're hopefully past the colder weather now, it would only take a malfunction at a major terminal or interconnector and store would be depleted pretty fast...

BritDownUnder · Post by **BritDownUnder** » 10 Mar 2018, 10:03

clv101 wrote:From Russia eh? Let's not be to heavy handed about any further sanctions then!

I wonder if the Russians chose to try to poison that spy in Salisbury after the LNG ship sailed knowing that the UK was desperate for gas?

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 10 Mar 2018, 12:06

BritDownUnder wrote:.......I wonder if the Russians chose to try to poison that spy in Salisbury after the LNG ship sailed knowing that the UK was desperate for gas?

The Russians know that they can do virtually anything that they want without any meaningful repercutions on them anywhere in Europe, short of invading the EU, because the EU and Germany in particular are so dependent on Russian gas and oil.

If the Russians are proved to be responsible for the Salisbury attack I expect a lot of bluster from the British Government and some embassy staff to be thrown out but not a lot else because we too are reliant on Russian gas. We may not import much of their gas directly but if the Russians were to turn off the gas for a while the increased price could have a massive adverse effect on most of the free world's economies (US excluded as they would profit, once again, from others problems).

Post by **adam2** » 10 Mar 2018, 16:03

Total gas stocks now down to 5,600GWH, so still dropping but only slowly now.
Enough left for some weeks at this slow rate of withdrawal.

BritDownUnder · Post by **BritDownUnder** » 11 Mar 2018, 04:54

kenneal - lagger wrote:
BritDownUnder wrote:.......I wonder if the Russians chose to try to poison that spy in Salisbury after the LNG ship sailed knowing that the UK was desperate for gas?
The Russians know that they can do virtually anything that they want without any meaningful repercussions on them anywhere in Europe, short of invading the EU, because the EU and Germany in particular are so dependent on Russian gas and oil.

Maybe the government, as well as kicking out most of the Russian diplomatic corps in London, should actually try to think about how to reduce this gas dependency. I don't give it much hope though. Perhaps a special tax on very expensive London properties which are often owned by Russians could be looked at and the proceeds used to insulate houses and build offshore wind farms.

I am not sure that the Americans should be accused of profiting from this. Choosing to frack their own oil and gas when the prices are high and import from countries that don't like them when the prices are forced lower seems like logical sense to me. Pity the UK did not shut down North Sea production when oil was $10 a barrel in the 80s and 90s

There may be a good opportunity to tie Russia down in Syria and waste their money there. Russia has lost a lot of 'Cossacks/private mercenaries/little green men' there lately. America has chosen wisely to stay in the Kurdish areas and let the others fight it out in their own areas.

Back on topic, more energy storage of whatever form would be handy to have. If you have an MP who listens to you then maybe write them a message.

Post by **mikepepler** » 13 Mar 2018, 09:06

Here we go again...

Forecasts of a second blast of cold air from Siberia drove British natural gas prices over 50% higher on Monday morning compared to Fridayâ€™s close, brokered deals seen by ICIS showed.

https://www.icis.com/resources/news/201 ... gas-power/

Post by **adam2** » 15 Mar 2018, 10:30

I have moved a large number of off topic posts about wood fuel, these may be found in the "biomass" forum. Please keep this thread on the topic of gas supplies and prices.

Post by **adam2** » 15 Mar 2018, 16:16

Gas stocks increased to about 7,300 GWH.
Sufficient to avoid any near term panic or crisis, though in the medium and longer term we remain vulnerable to any supply disruptions.

The price remains higher than normal, though well below the exceptional levels reached about 10 days ago.