Gas alert as demand and prices rise

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 03 Mar 2018, 16:53

You might say that wind is putting off but not necessarily postponing the evil day.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 03 Mar 2018, 19:57

Potemkin Villager wrote:You might say that wind is putting off but not necessarily postponing the evil day.

My resident Catholic nun trained grammar critic would not let me pair the two.

Perhaps delay but no prevent would convey your meaning clearly?

Post by **adam2** » 04 Mar 2018, 12:25

Gas prices have dropped very sharply, back to about normal levels.
I am a bit surprised by the scale of the drop.
Perhaps a tanker has arrived ?

Post by **adam2** » 04 Mar 2018, 16:13

Gas stocks down to 7,300GWH
Yesterday, 8,000.
Withdrawals from stock in the last 24 hours, 700GWH.

Sufficient remains for about 10 days at the present rate of withdrawal.

I expect that withdrawal rates will increase over the next few days since demand is normally greater on weekdays.
OTOH a tanker will probably arrive soon.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 04 Mar 2018, 20:04

If the prices have dropped one should assume that the market knows something that we don't.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 04 Mar 2018, 22:28

Or else they were doing their usual pirate behaviour and chancing their arm by using extortion when it looked like we might have bad weather. Now itâ€™s warming up they have had to back off just so they can have the cash flow. These people are not professionals, other than being professional gamblers. I just hope they get a taste of their own medicine one day. Perhaps I will get the chance to inflict some pain when their boiler breaks down at the beginning of a bank holiday.

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 05 Mar 2018, 15:44

vtsnowedin wrote:
Potemkin Villager wrote:You might say that wind is putting off but not necessarily postponing the evil day.
My resident Catholic nun trained grammar critic would not let me pair the two.
Perhaps delay but no prevent would convey your meaning clearly?

Wind is only delaying the inevitable.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 05 Mar 2018, 16:11

Potemkin Villager wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Potemkin Villager wrote:You might say that wind is putting off but not necessarily postponing the evil day.
My resident Catholic nun trained grammar critic would not let me pair the two.
Perhaps delay but no prevent would convey your meaning clearly?
Wind is only delaying the inevitable.

Perhaps long enough for a tanker to arrive.

Post by **mikepepler** » 06 Mar 2018, 17:11

They're being slow to up the Prevailing View today (normally 4pm), but a graph linked from it does seem to have an update, indicating a drop in storage from 4,901GWh (yesterday) to something in the region of 3,000GWh, which would be a bit alarming if it turns out to be true, as it's not that cold now!
http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/P ... 2018-03-06

Post by **adam2** » 06 Mar 2018, 17:43

The gas stocks section on the prevailing view has not been updated for TWO days.
As noted above it is normally updated at 16-00 daily but was not updated yesterday nor today, so far.

The 16-00 update normally carries the date when it is updated, it is now showing 4th and today is of course 6th.

Post by **mikepepler** » 06 Mar 2018, 21:12

I think prevailing view shows the previous day after the update, as the 'gas day' starts at 5am, so the 4pm update is for the previous 24 hours, ending at 5am that morning - but the 24 hours referred to will use the previous day's date.

But either way it's late, which happens sometimes. The data item explorer is not up to date either, medium range storage data in there is just:
01/03/2018 7232.5749
02/03/2018 6322.6128
03/03/2018 5476.2308
04/03/2018 4900.6136
http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/DataItemExplorer

I doubt it's a cover up, just IT issues...

Post by **adam2** » 06 Mar 2018, 22:34

According to a report in todays Times* three LNG cargoes are en-route to us, two from Russia and one from Norway

*Paper edition, 03/06/2018, page 41

Post by **clv101** » 06 Mar 2018, 22:43

From Russia eh? Let's not be to heavy handed about any further sanctions then!

Post by **mikepepler** » 07 Mar 2018, 09:24

Interesting comment in a letter in the FT (search in Google and click through to avoid paywall):
https://www.ft.com/content/8e1afd30-207 ... d3483b8b80
"UK may risk more â€˜close callsâ€™ on the gas market"

The author is Dr Jonathan Marshall, Energy Analyst, Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.

He argues that the presence of LNG terminals and tankers means traditional gas storage is no longer economically viable, because a tanker can in theory arrive at any time and the terminal can flood the gas network, depressing prices and removing the opportunity for the storage facility to earn some money reselling gas stored in the summer. This meant it wasn't worth repairing Rough.

But the other side of story is that while LNG kills off traditional storage economically, it doesn't actually replace it, as the tankers can't be called on at short notice, and can't actually be relied on to turn up at all.

I guess nobody thought this through when the terminals were being planned 15-20 years ago...

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 07 Mar 2018, 12:30

Has no one in government heard of the value of a Strategic Reserve?