Here's the 'non-PO aware' take on the US vs. Iran conflict:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/artic ... 51,00.html
The article is suggesting that the US moves are merely to soften Iran up in advance of possible negotiations. It also suggests that Iran is vulnerable financially because oil may drop to $35 and that Saudia Arabia, who is on the US side in this fight, could increase production to damage Iran through lower prices.
Anatole Kaletsky in the Times wrote:This brings us to the final and most interesting strand in the anti-Iranian policy nexus: the price of oil. Iran?s economy depends entirely on oil sales, which account for 90 per cent of exports and a roughly equal share of the Government?s budget. Since last July, a barrel of oil has fallen from $78 to just over $50, reducing the Government?s revenues by one third. If the oil price fell into the $35 to $40 range, Iran would shift into deficit, and with access to foreign borrowing cut off by UN sanctions, the Government?s capacity to continue financing foreign proxies would quickly run out. Iran has reacted to this threat by calling on Opec to stabilise prices but, in practice, only one country has the clout to do this: Saudi Arabia. Earlier this month, in a highly significant statement, Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi Oil Minister, publicly opposed Iranian calls for production cuts to halt the decline in prices. Mr Naimi's pronouncement was cast as a technical matter unconnected with politics, but it seemed to confirm private warnings by King Abdullah that his country would try everything to thwart Iran?s hegemony in Iraq and throughout the region, whether by military intervention or more subtle economic means.