Brexit process

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johnhemming2
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Post by johnhemming2 »

UndercoverElephant wrote:Why?
If we say we won't agree anything we are reneging on agreements we have made in the past. That is a sort of nuclear option in terms of international trade which cannot be blandly accepted by the other parties. Hence we should not expect the other parties to co-operate (any non tariff barriers, air flights etc).


We can have a deal for exit from the EU and then end up on basic WTO terms. That, however, is a deal it is not "no deal".
Little John

Post by Little John »

clv101 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:We have to actually be prepared to do it. The moment the EU understands that we are prepared to do so, they will start negotiating seriously.
The point is that talk of walking away without a deal is pretending, I know it, Brussels know it, and you should you know it.

You might as well say we seriously threaten to nuke Brussels if we don't get a good deal. We have to actually be prepared to do it. The moment the EU understands that we are prepared to do so, they will start negotiating seriously.

It's a nonsense. If you can't see that there's not much further our discussion on this can go! :)
So, you are equating the wish of a people for their country to be under sovereign control with a nuclear exchange?

Seriously?

Are you really as big a f***ing idiot as you are presenting yourself to be?
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clv101
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Post by clv101 »

Nuking Brussels is an example of something we aren't going to do. Like we aren't leaving the EU without 'a deal'.

There's no point threatening to nuke Brussels (to make them start negotiating seriously) as we and they would know it's a nonsense.

Equally, there's no point threatening to leave without a deal as we and they know it's a nonsense.

I don't see what's so hard to understand about this. There will be a deal.
johnhemming2
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Post by johnhemming2 »

Little John wrote: Are you really as big a ******* idiot as you are presenting yourself to be?
That sort of argument demonstrates that you don't actually have rational arguments to substantiate your case and so wish to resort to abuse in an attempt to intimidate chris into not disagreeing with you.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Interesting times. :-)
Little John

Post by Little John »

Oh aye. These jokers don't seem to have yet grasped just how interesting they may yet become
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

clv101 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:We have to actually be prepared to do it. The moment the EU understands that we are prepared to do so, they will start negotiating seriously.
The point is that talk of walking away without a deal is pretending, I know it, Brussels know it, and you should you know it.

You might as well say we seriously threaten to nuke Brussels if we don't get a good deal. We have to actually be prepared to do it. The moment the EU understands that we are prepared to do so, they will start negotiating seriously.

It's a nonsense. If you can't see that there's not much further our discussion on this can go! :)
Well, you could actually try answering the question I have asked you several times. This discussion has gone as follows:

UE: We need to prepare to walk away without a deal:

CLV: Oh no! The sky will fall in!

UE: But what would actually be so bad about trading on WTO rules?

CLV: The sky will fall in! The sky will fall in!

UE: Erm. No, I really don't understand why trading with Europe on WTO rules. Why would it be so terrible?

CLV: It would be terrrible! No government would allow it! The Europeans wouldn't take us seriously if we suggested it. The sky will fall in!

UE: But WHY???

CLV: It would be like nuking Brussels!


Shall we try again?

What would be so bad about walking away with no deal?
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clv101
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Post by clv101 »

That's a bit unfair! I thought I explained back on Nov 13th, page 24-25 of this thread (on my system) the reasons why I thought no deal was a nonsense.

Your reply at one point was along the lines of blah blah blah...
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clv101
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Post by clv101 »

A significant tweet: Guy Verhofstadt�Verified account @guyverhofstadt
Remarks by David Davis that Phase one deal last week not binding were unhelpful & undermines trust. EP text will now reflect this & insist agreement translated into legal text ASAP #Brexit
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

clv101 wrote:A significant tweet: Guy Verhofstadt�Verified account @guyverhofstadt
Remarks by David Davis that Phase one deal last week not binding were unhelpful & undermines trust. EP text will now reflect this & insist agreement translated into legal text ASAP #Brexit
Mr Verhofstadt can stick that right up his arse.

On top of that, making the text legally binding would also achieve nothing at all unless the "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" clause is deleted.

From https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... erhofstadt:
“As someone said, it’s an own goal,� Verhofstadt said. “It is clear that the European council will be more strict now.
Breathtaking arrogance. "We will be more strict now!" is the language that a teacher or parent uses towards a child. It assumes a position of outright authority and dominance towards the entity it is directed at. The EU is going to be more stict with us, finger wagging furiously.

The answer: F*ck off, you arrogant Belgian c*nt.

It won't happen, because it can't happen. The reason it can't happen is that it contains fundamental contradictions and impenetrable fudge, and while that is just about acceptable as a non-legally-binding "statement of intent" or "gentleman's agreement", it is completely unacceptable as a statement of law.

Which leaves us in a very interesting situation.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Even more interesting:

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/euro ... -1.3323479
European Court and not London will decide if Brexit deal binding
Court likely to decide UK is locked into regulatory alignment even without deal

Ministers there seem to think that the magic phrase “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed� overrides the rest of last Friday’s agreement with the European Union. But London cannot dictate the meaning of the deal which has allowed Brexit negotiations proceed to the next step.

It does not matter what the UK government thinks the agreement means - what matters is what the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) says it means. This agreement is being reached under article 50 and so will fall within the court’s jurisdiction.
So now there are claims that the UK doesn't get to decide whether the agreement it just made is legally binding or not, and that the Court of Justice of the EU will make that decision!

Were this to be true, then hard brexit is dead, legally. However, I cannot imagine the UK government accepting that it is already legally bound by that text, especially given that it includes the caveat "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed".

What an almighty cock-up by all concerned. I get the feeling that the wheels are about to come off the entire Brexit process.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

And there's more. The EU is also now saying there is no guarantee of a transition deal:

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit- ... done-deal/
Now that the European Union is poised to greenlight moving on to the second phase of Brexit talks, the United Kingdom seems to think it has beaten the clock and is on track to avoid a cliff-edge scenario.

That might be the case. But it’s too soon for London to celebrate. The British government is assuming it will be granted a transitional period, during which the U.K. will enjoy continued access to the European single market.

There’s no guarantee that will happen. The transition period will rely on the approval of the European Parliament.
Watch it all unravel!
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

It is impossible to keep up with this! Now the EU has ruled out trade talks until March, in direct response to David Davis's comments:

https://www.ft.com/content/674623ac-df1 ... 1c2175f5ce

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https://www.ft.com/content/674623ac-df1 ... 1c2175f5ce

EU countries have toughened their stance on Brexit, making clear that talks on a future EU-UK relationship will not begin until March and insisting Britain will stay fully covered by EU rules during a transition — while losing its voice within regulatory agencies — after it leaves the bloc in 2019.

Senior national officials have changed draft guidelines on the next phase of talks so that they no longer suggest that “preliminary and preparatory� discussions on trade can begin early next year.

Theresa May’s government has promised an ambitious and far-reaching trade deal as the final goal of the Brexit talks, although the EU says a formal accord will have to wait until the UK leaves the bloc and that only a more general “political declaration� will be possible beforehand.

The new version of the guidelines seen by the Financial Times, which alters a text issued by European Council president Donald Tusk after Mrs May held successful divorce talks in Brussels last week, make clear that EU countries oppose a quick start to such trade negotiations.

Diplomats said member states were irritated by comments over the weekend by David Davis...
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

There is no doubt the debate on anything impinging on the sacred proposed Brexit bugout is highly emotionally charged which makes having rational debate problematic. The situation is not improved by the hysterical atmosphere whipped up in the run up to the referendum, the exaggerations and lies by both teams of proselytizers, denial of the negative consequences and the casually arrogant ineptitude with which the whole thing has been handled since. Those who disagree with one opinion or other become the devil incarnate in need of being sent to the gulag at a minimum.

Among all this unctuous huffing, puffing, posturing, fear mongering, smoke and mirrors it emerges that it cannot be clearly demonstrated just what practically are the nett benefits that might be achieved. Also it now appears that a serious assessment of likely impacts has either been carried out and suppressed or not carried out for fear of learning the worst.

Slowly but surely the Brexit "process" is increasingly becoming a self parody and a grotesque reductio ad absurdum and this is set to get much worse moving into the nitty gritty phase. In reality Brexit is more analogous to Dunkirk than the Battle of Britain.

The fatal flaw of bugout is the empty promise that splendid isolation and an aggressive posture is a good strategy in troubled times when it might reasonably be concluded that having more friends and allies in close proximity is rather better than having much less.
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

It's not just lies and a lack of reason. The fundamental problem from the British side has been two many politicians engaged in doublespeak and defending their position by defending multiple contradictory things at the same time. Labour has avoided taking any firm position at all, and the tories are continually talking ambiguously, or contradicting each other. This obviously cannot go on. We cannot have two different brexits. And the problem goes right to the top: it is Theresa May who is supposed to be leading both her party and the country, but she only stays in power by keeping her cabinet split and not committing to any position (or not sticking to it). It's insane, because it quite obviously cannot continue forever: sooner or later she has to actually make her mind up and if half the cabinet don't like it, she has to get rid of them. But she won't, because she is so excruciatingly weak and pathetic. She is the worst prime minister this country has had in living memory.
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