Brexit process

[kenneal - lagger]

If we get what we want from the negotiations then the £57 billion over a number of years will be OK. From that article it seems to be a reasonable sum but it must only be paid if we get our side of things.

[woodburner]

Who are you referring to as “we�. I suspect that most people’s requirements are totally irrelevant to the incompetent government minister negotiators, who are led by an arch incompetent. Enough is enough, Brexit means brexit, I’m not making this up, and other meaningless collections of words.

[UndercoverElephant]

If we get what we want from the negotiations then the £57 billion over a number of years will be OK. From that article it seems to be a reasonable sum but it must only be paid if we get our side of things.

But we won't. We'll be offered a sh*t deal that isn't worth having.

This is insane. There's no way it is worth paying £60bn to leave the EU in return for nothing or very little, when we could leave for nothing and trade on WTO rules.

I don't think TM is going to get this through parliament. Or if it does go through parliament, the tories are going to be absolutely slaughtered at the next election.

[cubes]

I can see members of the cabinet sharpening their knives as I speak thanks to this. It's something neither brexiters or remainers like the look of although and I obviously have wildly different solutions.

[clv101]

...when we could leave for nothing...

Could we? Surely leaving for nothing would involve breaking contracts, legal cases (probably losing) and negatively affecting our reputation when it comes to making new deals with the EU and others.

It seems to me that a big part of the ~£50bn is continued payments during a transition period. If there's going to such a period then it's only right that payments continue. And another big part is commitments/contracts we're already part of (whether or not we remain in the EU).

[UndercoverElephant]

I can see members of the cabinet sharpening their knives as I speak thanks to this. It's something neither brexiters or remainers like the look of although and I obviously have wildly different solutions.

Yes, it is very difficult to see how anybody at all can be happy with this, and there's a lot of tories already sitting on much reduced majorities in their own seats. The next few polls are going to be interesting - if the tories take a significant dip then I can see tory MPs deciding the time has come to replace TM with David Davis, who might be willing to walk away without a deal.

[clv101]

David Davies? I don't see anything to suggest he'd want to top job! I expect he already feels he's in too deep and would like a (face saving) exit. Taking on the role of PM would be double down on the hopeless hand he's been dealt.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/s ... government

Yes it could...

[johnhemming2]

The point about not doing a deal is that it not doing a deal on day 1. The question is then asked as to when a deal is done.

[UndercoverElephant]

But if there is no deal on day 1, including no transitional deal, then there needs to be a functioning hard border on day 1. A 300+ mile fence with countless border posts, up and running 14 months from now. A fence that nobody actually wants, apart from maybe, secretly, the DUP.

It looks to me that unless the EU backs down in a major way, and quickly, we are heading for an enormous car crash. They need to agree a transitional deal that will allow that border to remain temporarily open, even though it will eventually close (or might). If they don't - and it looks like the Irish can veto it - then we are heading towards a situation where the clock is ticking for that border to be erected in a very short period of time. ie total chaos.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42188485

It is not possible to see how the Irish border issue can be resolved after Brexit, the influential group of MPs scrutinising the process has said.

ie "there is no solution to this problem". Where does that leave brexit?

[fuzzy]

Total chaos perhaps for 'British' meat. The stuff imported to the South - moving freely to the North, that then becomes 'British' according to EU trade law. Presumably the Vaseys of SA still coining it after 120 years

It was, of course, the Vesteys...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vestey_Group

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.channel4.com/news/brexit-an ... ive-debate

This is also a revealing debate (yesterday).

What is really going on here? Answer: it is about the long-term future of Ireland. Since the Good Friday Agreement, there has been a long, slow movement towards a united Ireland. If a border goes up between NI and the Republic, and regulations start diverging, then this momentum is reversed and the prospect of a united Ireland starts becoming more distant.

Which means the GFA really could unravel, unless Ireland also leave the EU.

[adam2]

I suspect that Ireland will leave the EU, but this will take some years and therefore not be in time to alleviate the near term chaos, doubt and dispute regarding Brexit and the Irish border.

The Irish republic have done well out of the EU, but there is a growing feeling that the good times are over. Without our contributions to the EU budget, ROI may no longer profit from EU membership.

[clv101]

The 'solution' to the Irish border is to remain in the single market and the customs union, it's the 'do nothing' approach. I expect this to be the case on day 1 - we continue to pay, we continue to play... until someone, anyone can figure out a better arrangement.

[UndercoverElephant]

The 'solution' to the Irish border is to remain in the single market and the customs union,

That solves one problem only to replace it with an even bigger one, namely a complete meltdown in British politics. It solves "the Irish problem" but creates a much bigger "European problem" because we'll end up back in the situation that led to the referendum in the first place, except squared.