Brexit process

[UndercoverElephant]

http://gearsofbiz.com/irish-pm-leo-vara ... rks/211511

The Irish Prime Minister went on to say that so dissatisfied was he with the British government’s ideas on the Irish question to date that he wanted nothing short of a full legal guarantee from the British government to ensure that no hard border would take effect.

The problem with that is that the only way to really ensure there is no hard border at all would be for the UK to remain in the customs union and probably the single market too.

That would solve the Irish question for Theresa May but it would throw up a thousand others, mainly from her own backbenchers, for whom the price of continued customs union and single market membership would be far too high.

Am I missing something? There's no way out of this. In effect "the EU" is saying "remain in the customs union or there will be no deal", but there's absolutely no way Theresa May can commit to this, certainly not without concurrent commitments from the EU on trade, and probably not all.

[clv101]

Back to the European Medicines Agency, we now know it's going to Amsterdam:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... relocation

[UndercoverElephant]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11 ... s-tell-eu/

A group of German business leaders and politicians has called for the European Union to persuade Britain to reverse Brexit by offering a comprehensive deal on immigration and free movement.

Under the slogan “Exit from Brexit: a new deal for Britain and the EU�, the group of seven influential figures warned that Germany must do more to prevent losing “its most valuable partner within the EU�.

“Basically, we want the EU to offer the deal David Cameron was looking for before the referendum,� Hans-Olaf Henkel, a senior German MEP and one of the leaders of the initiative said.

“We need Britain as a counterweight to Juncker and Barnier, and the people who want a ’United States of Europe’. We don’t want that: we want an EU of sovereign nations.�

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKBN1DK2DN

DUP says Northern Ireland will leave EU on same terms as rest of UK

And since they have an effective veto, that's a great big "Up Yours, Monsieur Barnier."

"“We will not countenance a border in the Irish Sea. I welcome the Prime Minister’s commitment on this.� "

So, the DUP will not accept a border in the Irish Sea, and have the power at Westminster to make sure of it. The Irish Republic and the EU will not accept a hard border on the island of Ireland. But it is impossible for the UK to meaningfully leave the EU without there being a hard border in one of these two places.

From the point of view of politics as a spectator sport, it doesn't get much better than this.

[fuzzy]

Back to the European Medicines Agency, we now know it's going to Amsterdam:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... relocation

That's an excellent choice. The Dutch know as much about tax havens as the city of london.

[stumuz1]

Just a quick anecdotal to the EMA story.

I was in Milton Science Park a few weeks ago and was speaking to a researcher on secondment from EMA.

She said that fewer than 10% of staff are going to relocate and the Dutch will need to replace nearly all the staff.

Now, in her field of work there are <15 people worldwide who could finish her research (which is about to fructify)

Some of the reasons for not relocating are no redundancy clauses in her contract, so it will need to be bought out. Children/family settled. Has been offered work in private sector in the UK.

Not as straight forward as first appears.

[kenneal - lagger]

If we are losing these agencies that should equal a deduction from what we pay to the EU for other things. There are things to pay on both sides such as our part ownership of EU buildings.

[mikepepler]

The rate things are going we might be best off telling the EU they can't have any money at all, that we'll be fine with WTO trade rules, and then get on with sorting out practical details about flights, medical isotopes, Irish border, etc. I'm sure there would be several years of chaos, but it seems that's a given anyway, as the EU is not interested in making it easy, and the UK govt is not very competent.

I'm re-reading Tainter's book on collapse at the moment, and it seems to me that the EU really is at the top of the house of cards. Perhaps getting out and accepting that some of the fancy stuff EU institutions were doing for the UK will now have to be done in a simpler, less fancy way, will be a good move? Our society needs to become less complex if it is to survive in once piece (or several large pieces), so getting rid of some bureaucracy pre-emptively might help - even if this means that we lose some things that were good. No matter how good they are, if we don't have the surplus energy to pay for non-productive bureaucracy, then we can't have it in the long run.

[johnhemming2]

The problem with the EU is that people need to deal with reality. They cannot be forced into any particular position as our negotiating position is not strong enough.

No deal means no deal in March 2019. It is not particularly clear when no deal would turn into a deal. In any event stopping manufacturing in some areas because of lack of regulatory certainty would be disruptive even if it was only for a month or two.

[UndercoverElephant]

The rate things are going we might be best off telling the EU they can't have any money at all, that we'll be fine with WTO trade rules, and then get on with sorting out practical details about flights, medical isotopes, Irish border, etc. I'm sure there would be several years of chaos, but it seems that's a given anyway, as the EU is not interested in making it easy, and the UK govt is not very competent.

I'm re-reading Tainter's book on collapse at the moment, and it seems to me that the EU really is at the top of the house of cards. Perhaps getting out and accepting that some of the fancy stuff EU institutions were doing for the UK will now have to be done in a simpler, less fancy way, will be a good move? Our society needs to become less complex if it is to survive in once piece (or several large pieces), so getting rid of some bureaucracy pre-emptively might help - even if this means that we lose some things that were good. No matter how good they are, if we don't have the surplus energy to pay for non-productive bureaucracy, then we can't have it in the long run.

Yes.

[cubes]

Guardian reporting: UK and EU agree Brexit divorce bill that could reach £57bn

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... reach-57bn

[Little John]

Nobody voted for that. May is both incompetent and a traitor. But, then, that could be said of our entire political class.

[cubes]

So, how many £-million is that for the NHS?

[fuzzy]

So we pay about £200 for every single EU person - so that the city can still trouser money. Presumably the Chinese, Arabs and Russians wouldn't want to own vacant london buildings without the money laundering.

[BritDownUnder]

Particularly bad result from the UK negotiators who have a proven track record of bad negotiation.

Seems like instead of paying about 6-9 billion a year to be in the EU, you will pay 57 billion to be out of the EU but still be in the free market and freedom of labour movement and follow the EU rules for the next few years.