Brexit process

[clv101]

But given the political chaos, it is notan impossible outcome. My point is that there are bad deals worse than no deal.

I think we need to move away from 'no deal' language. No deal isn't going to happen, no chance, no way. There WILL be a deal coving at least some areas or there will simply be an ever extending 'transition period'.

[kenneal - lagger]

But given the political chaos, it is notan impossible outcome. My point is that there are bad deals worse than no deal.

I think we need to move away from 'no deal' language. No deal isn't going to happen, no chance, no way. There WILL be a deal coving at least some areas or there will simply be an ever extending 'transition period'.

Chris, you haven't got the faintest idea of negotiating. If you don't go into the negotiating room with the firm idea that you will accept a no deal position rather than a bad deal you won't get anything from a nightmare opposition like the EU. Remember what they gave Cameron and what precipitated this whole episode.

[mikepepler]

I agree Ken, 'no deal' has to be an option, and the govt should have, and perhaps even publish, a viable plan for making it work. If the EU really believed we might be prepared to walk away with no deal, they might finally be prepared to compromise. The way things are going at present, I can quite easily see a lot of people in the UK wanting to tell the EU to sod off and not pay them a penny (even though there's a moral case for us owing at least some money). Given the sums of money involved, that would not be a good outcome for the EU.

[johnhemming2]

If the EU really believed we might be prepared to walk away with no deal, they might finally be prepared to compromise.

With any negotiation you need to identify how important any particular issue is to either party.

Playing a game of chicken with two drivers driving at each other is a possibility, but it is not the best way of getting a good result.

[BritDownUnder]

To me the UK has a good negotiating position. It is a poor measure of politician the UK has who thinks they is in a position of weakness when the UK pays between 3 and 5 billion net contribution per year to the EU and has a trade deficit of 25 billion with Germany, 15 billion Spain and a trade deficit with nearly every other EU member except Ireland, 80 billion in total. The UK probably provides employment and social security to around one million EU citizens as well.

I say the UK should just go for no deal and trade with the EU under WTO rules. I would not expect that the UK trade situation would get any better very quickly but hopefully some opportunities would arise, e.g. greenhouse grown food currently from the Netherlands and Spain could be grown in UK greenhouses or bought from Australia or New Zealand. People taking holidays at home instead of waiting 4 hours in line for a visa at a Spanish airport.

Will the UK make a success of it? Given the poor negotiating politicians probably not but I think out is still better than in.

Edit: I got my trade numbers from the following of you are interested.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

[UndercoverElephant]

But given the political chaos, it is notan impossible outcome. My point is that there are bad deals worse than no deal.

I think we need to move away from 'no deal' language. No deal isn't going to happen, no chance, no way. There WILL be a deal coving at least some areas or there will simply be an ever extending 'transition period'.

The EU itself has said there is a chance - a significant chance - that a no deal Brexit might happen. Although I can't personally imagine a total no deal, including the ending of flights between the UK and the EU. But I can certainly imagine the UK refusing to cave into EU demands on the "divorce bill", the Irish border and the role of the ECJ, and that would lead to the UK leaving the single market next March.

We MUST take "no deal" seriously, or we are in a hopeless position whereby the EU can force us to accept something truly terrible. Gove and Johnson are right about this. We have to start preparing for a no deal if we are to have any hope of getting a reasonable deal.

The real problem is that there is no majority in parliament for a no-deal Brexit, so it is hard to see the government surviving for long once it really starts looking like that's where we are heading.

[UndercoverElephant]

But given the political chaos, it is notan impossible outcome. My point is that there are bad deals worse than no deal.

I think we need to move away from 'no deal' language. No deal isn't going to happen, no chance, no way. There WILL be a deal coving at least some areas or there will simply be an ever extending 'transition period'.

Chris, you haven't got the faintest idea of negotiating. If you don't go into the negotiating room with the firm idea that you will accept a no deal position rather than a bad deal you won't get anything from a nightmare opposition like the EU. Remember what they gave Cameron and what precipitated this whole episode.

Exactly. This would be true in any negotiation, but when you are dealing with an opponent that is more interested in punishment than its own economic self-interest then it is doubly true. Saying that "no deal" is unthinkable or impossible is an open invitation for the EU to inflict something truly appalling on the UK - something nobody wants apart from the EU.

[UndercoverElephant]

If the EU really believed we might be prepared to walk away with no deal, they might finally be prepared to compromise.

With any negotiation you need to identify how important any particular issue is to either party.

Playing a game of chicken with two drivers driving at each other is a possibility, but it is not the best way of getting a good result.

The only way to get the EU to negotiate reasonably, instead of punishing the UK, is to threaten to walk away with no deal. But Theresa May cannot do so, because she knows there is no majority in parliament to force such a policy through. She is too weak, both within her own party and within parliament.

Is it possible she could lose key votes on Brexit this week, and yet still survive as party leader and prime minister? In normal times this would be unthinkable, but these are not normal times.

[UndercoverElephant]

To me the UK has a good negotiating position. It is a poor measure of politician the UK has who thinks they is in a position of weakness when the UK pays between 3 and 5 billion net contribution per year to the EU and has a trade deficit of 25 billion with Germany, 15 billion Spain and a trade deficit with nearly every other EU member except Ireland, 80 billion in total. The UK probably provides employment and social security to around one million EU citizens as well.

I say the UK should just go for no deal and trade with the EU under WTO rules. I would not expect that the UK trade situation would get any better very quickly but hopefully some opportunities would arise, e.g. greenhouse grown food currently from the Netherlands and Spain could be grown in UK greenhouses or bought from Australia or New Zealand. People taking holidays at home instead of waiting 4 hours in line for a visa at a Spanish airport.

Will the UK make a success of it? Given the poor negotiating politicians probably not but I think out is still better than in.

Edit: I got my trade numbers from the following of you are interested.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

The UK might have a decent negotiating position if it was willing and able to threaten a no-deal Brexit, but it can't and the EU knows this. Theresa May needed a clear majority of brexiteers in Parliament to be able to achieve this, which is why she called that election and demanded the electorate deliver her the mandate and majority she required to push Brexit through. But instead of getting that thumping majority and mandate, she lost the feeble majority she had before and ended up in power but powerless. Now she's up shit creek without a paddle.

[fuzzy]

To me the UK has a good negotiating position. It is a poor measure of politician the UK has who thinks they is in a position of weakness when the UK pays between 3 and 5 billion net contribution per year to the EU and has a trade deficit of 25 billion with Germany, 15 billion Spain and a trade deficit with nearly every other EU member except Ireland, 80 billion in total. The UK probably provides employment and social security to around one million EU citizens as well.

I say the UK should just go for no deal and trade with the EU under WTO rules. I would not expect that the UK trade situation would get any better very quickly but hopefully some opportunities would arise, e.g. greenhouse grown food currently from the Netherlands and Spain could be grown in UK greenhouses or bought from Australia or New Zealand. People taking holidays at home instead of waiting 4 hours in line for a visa at a Spanish airport.

Will the UK make a success of it? Given the poor negotiating politicians probably not but I think out is still better than in.

Edit: I got my trade numbers from the following of you are interested.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

The UK might have a decent negotiating position if it was willing and able to threaten a no-deal Brexit, but it can't and the EU knows this. Theresa May needed a clear majority of brexiteers in Parliament to be able to achieve this, which is why she called that election and demanded the electorate deliver her the mandate and majority she required to push Brexit through. But instead of getting that thumping majority and mandate, she lost the feeble majority she had before and ended up in power but powerless. Now she's up shit creek without a paddle.

And she can blame IDS etc for this. I would have voted for giving her the benefit of the doubt last time, except that what the Tories did to the truly needy in the UK [eg those not farming kids] has been a disgrace. Because of this behaviour, which they haven't stopped, she is in a pickle.

[Potemkin Villager]

The UK might have a decent negotiating position if it was willing and able to threaten a no-deal Brexit, but it can't and the EU knows this. Theresa May needed a clear majority of brexiteers in Parliament to be able to achieve this, which is why she called that election and demanded the electorate deliver her the mandate and majority she required to push Brexit through. But instead of getting that thumping majority and mandate, she lost the feeble majority she had before and ended up in power but powerless. Now she's up shit creek without a paddle.

It's an uber SNAFU whatever way you look at it even just considering the uncertainty created by the posturing. The school of thought that believes you weaken your negotiating position by being clear about what you want and also being unable to demonstrate you have a feasible plan seem well to the fore. People should be careful what they wish for but they won't. All in all it is a tremendous distraction from a whole rake of other pressing matters that government would rather ignore.

[Little John]

If a "no deal" is the outcome, shortly thereafter, the likes of Poland et al will be turning up on Germany's doorstep with their empty begging bowls saying "where's our money?". At which point, the Germans will have to tell them there isn't any. All of which will precipitate an EU crisis that will make all that have come before seem like mere aperitifs to the main party.

The UK MUST be prepared to walk away and MUST ensure the EU knows this to be true. As we then approach the deadline for negotiations, the minds of the EU bureaucrats will be become focused.

Our problem is, fundamentally, a spineless, fat-arsed, bought-up political class. Not the EU. They are merely the mechanism by which the spinelessness of our political class is exposed.

[BritDownUnder]

To me the UK has a good negotiating position. It is a poor measure of politician the UK has who thinks they is in a position of weakness when the UK pays between 3 and 5 billion net contribution per year to the EU and has a trade deficit of 25 billion with Germany, 15 billion Spain and a trade deficit with nearly every other EU member except Ireland, 80 billion in total. The UK probably provides employment and social security to around one million EU citizens as well.

I say the UK should just go for no deal and trade with the EU under WTO rules. I would not expect that the UK trade situation would get any better very quickly but hopefully some opportunities would arise, e.g. greenhouse grown food currently from the Netherlands and Spain could be grown in UK greenhouses or bought from Australia or New Zealand. People taking holidays at home instead of waiting 4 hours in line for a visa at a Spanish airport.

Will the UK make a success of it? Given the poor negotiating politicians probably not but I think out is still better than in.

Edit: I got my trade numbers from the following of you are interested.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

The UK might have a decent negotiating position if it was willing and able to threaten a no-deal Brexit, but it can't and the EU knows this. Theresa May needed a clear majority of brexiteers in Parliament to be able to achieve this, which is why she called that election and demanded the electorate deliver her the mandate and majority she required to push Brexit through. But instead of getting that thumping majority and mandate, she lost the feeble majority she had before and ended up in power but powerless. Now she's up shit creek without a paddle.

But was not May a "Remainer" until the Brexit vote. Maybe the voters saw her for what she probably is - a political opportunist.

[UndercoverElephant]

To me the UK has a good negotiating position. It is a poor measure of politician the UK has who thinks they is in a position of weakness when the UK pays between 3 and 5 billion net contribution per year to the EU and has a trade deficit of 25 billion with Germany, 15 billion Spain and a trade deficit with nearly every other EU member except Ireland, 80 billion in total. The UK probably provides employment and social security to around one million EU citizens as well.

I say the UK should just go for no deal and trade with the EU under WTO rules. I would not expect that the UK trade situation would get any better very quickly but hopefully some opportunities would arise, e.g. greenhouse grown food currently from the Netherlands and Spain could be grown in UK greenhouses or bought from Australia or New Zealand. People taking holidays at home instead of waiting 4 hours in line for a visa at a Spanish airport.

Will the UK make a success of it? Given the poor negotiating politicians probably not but I think out is still better than in.

Edit: I got my trade numbers from the following of you are interested.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

The UK might have a decent negotiating position if it was willing and able to threaten a no-deal Brexit, but it can't and the EU knows this. Theresa May needed a clear majority of brexiteers in Parliament to be able to achieve this, which is why she called that election and demanded the electorate deliver her the mandate and majority she required to push Brexit through. But instead of getting that thumping majority and mandate, she lost the feeble majority she had before and ended up in power but powerless. Now she's up shit creek without a paddle.

But was not May a "Remainer" until the Brexit vote. Maybe the voters saw her for what she probably is - a political opportunist.

She is a pragmatist. But the bottom line is that she cannot deliver a good-deal Brexit because the EU won't play ball, and there is no Commons majority for either a bad-deal Brexit or a no-deal Brexit. Doesn't matter who is leading the tory party, they'll have the same problem.

I think we are heading directly towards a crisis that can only end with another general election. And even that might not end it.

[UndercoverElephant]

The UK MUST be prepared to walk away and MUST ensure the EU knows this to be true.

MUST be but are not and cannot be, without another general election. It is not in the hands of Theresa May or David Davis or BJ or MG. Parliament is sovereign, and while there is a Commons majority for a reasonable-deal Brexit, there is no such majority for a no-deal Brexit. Which means it won't happen - somehow or other, the anti-no-deal majority in the Commons will make sure that either they can veto a no-deal Brexit, or they will bring down the government and force a general election. They are not going to let May and Davis implement a hard brexit, and the EU is not going to allow them a reasonable soft brexit.

We need a general election to sort this out. And this time, people are going to have know exactly what they are voting for. The candidates need to make their individual positions on Brexit clearly known.