Brexit process

Post by **clv101** » 17 Oct 2017, 19:28

How could we be forced into the Euro? Seems highly unlikely to me.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 17 Oct 2017, 20:29

I've started subscribing to Eurointelligence (for free and it keeps coming after 3 days) and they say that Continental lawyers don't think you can revoke article 51 because it will act as a dangerous precedent.

Countries like Poland could activate Article 51 and change their mind during the course of the negotiations as a form of political blackmail on the rest of the EU to give in to their demands.

Summary, despite what the English lawyers thinks, it isn't on the cards. Once you activate Article 51 YOU ARE LEAVING.

https://www.eurointelligence.com/

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Oct 2017, 22:17

Lord Beria3 wrote:I've started subscribing to Eurointelligence (for free and it keeps coming after 3 days) and they say that Continental lawyers don't think you can revoke article 51 because it will act as a dangerous precedent.

That sounds more like a reason why the EU wouldn't want Article 50 to be revoked, than why it is actually illegal.

Countries like Poland could activate Article 51 and change their mind during the course of the negotiations as a form of political blackmail on the rest of the EU to give in to their demands.

Maybe so. But the EU is currently engaged in political blackmail of the UK.

Summary, despite what the English lawyers thinks, it isn't on the cards. Once you activate Article 51 YOU ARE LEAVING.

https://www.eurointelligence.com/

You are leaving because the EU wants you to leave?

This is not the way the legal system works (anywhere). You don't just interpret the law to mean whatever you happen to fancy it means.

Although in this instance it sounds like nobody actually knows what the legal situation is.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Oct 2017, 22:18

http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-brexit ... ked-2017-3

EU leaked document: Britain can reverse Article 50

LONDON â€” The European Union's official response to Prime Minister Theresa May triggering Brexit states that Article 50 can be reversed, meaning Britain could, in theory, change its mind at some point in the two-year negotiation process.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Oct 2017, 22:31

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/t ... t-11372932

in response to a freedom of information request by the Mirror, her own department admÂitted plans for quitting the EU with No Deal were â€œwell under wayâ€� three months ago.

Our probe shows other major Government departments were in the same boat.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 20 Oct 2017, 00:49

Saw an article in the FT today portraying Corbyn in a sympathetic light re. his meeting with EU counterparts.

The FT!!

Truly, we live in strange times.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 20 Oct 2017, 07:52

I think this brexit thing is a red herring. We have been saying for years the world and Euro economies are in sh1t street, and could tip at any moment, regardless of EU membership. Why is brexit now the reason it's happening? There are no sound reasons because economics is just a posers game, and not a science.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 20 Oct 2017, 11:28

woodburner wrote: Why is brexit now the reason it's happening? There are no sound reasons because economics is just a posers game, and not a science.

Economics is difficult because part of it is perceptions. If people believe that something is likely to happen then they are likely to work to protect themselves from the consequences. Hence Markets tend to predict problems.

No deal, with the cessation of air flights to some countries and stopping JIT manufacturing would be a problem. Hence if it is a probability people will protect themselves by avoiding being in a difficult situation post Brexit. We will start seeing this more seriously after about March 2018.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 20 Oct 2017, 14:21

johnhemming2 wrote: No deal, with the cessation of air flights to some countries and stopping JIT manufacturing would be a problem.

I'M hearing this more and more lately. Last night on question time for example the labour MP for Wigan? said if a no deal Flights would be grounded.

Do politicians seriously think this will happen?

How would the game theory go?

EU stops flights to the UK, So EU planes are stuck on the ground. Within hours major UK and EU airlines are staring bankruptcies in the face. Would national carriers add hours to their flights by obviating UK airspace because they could not fly over it? So flights to the EU TO USA would take hours longer because of the detour?

I don't know but has anybody gamed this?

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 20 Oct 2017, 15:42

johnhemming2 wrote:

Hence Markets tend to predict problems.

Pull the other one. Problems like economic crashes?

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 20 Oct 2017, 18:22

stumuz1 wrote:How would the game theory go?

EU stops flights to the UK,

Most tickets are not bought on the day. You will find that travel companies are building into their contracts the ability to cancel tickets without notice or compensation in the event of no deal.

It is important to remember that the impact on the UK of no deal is much greater as a proportion of the economy than any EU country.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Oct 2017, 18:33

johnhemming2 wrote:
stumuz1 wrote:How would the game theory go?

EU stops flights to the UK,
Most tickets are not bought on the day. You will find that travel companies are building into their contracts the ability to cancel tickets without notice or compensation in the event of no deal.

It is important to remember that the impact on the UK of no deal is much greater as a proportion of the economy than any EU country.

That may be true, but it should not be a reason to allow the EU to dictate that we accept a truly terrible deal. It would be far better to walk away with no deal. Yes, it will be extremely painful, for both the UK and the EU. But this country has survived worse things, and anything is better than surrendering our sovereignty to these arrogant, unelected bastards.

They are trying to blackmail us into giving up our sovereignty, and we must resist regardless of the consequences. We should be preparing for a no-deal Brexit now, and make it clear to the EU that that is precisely what we are doing. And we need to mean it.

Juncker, Barnier et all need to be taught a lesson about what happens to foreigners who try to shaft the British people. They need to read their history books. We are not like them. The British Isles have not been successfully invaded for nearly 1000 years, nor have our borders changed (apart from internally). We resisted nazis alone, and we succeeded where they all failed. We defeated the French and the Spanish repeatedly before that, even though both those nations had larger populations and greater resources.

Yes, a no-deal Brexit will hurt the UK and cause a huge amount of disruption and change, much of it unwelcome. But it will also leave a monumental hole in the EU budget, and seriously screw up all sorts of things for them too. No more tariff-free exports of German cars to the UK. No more European boats stealing our fish. Bring it on.

Post by **clv101** » 20 Oct 2017, 20:51

I think the chance of a no-deal Brexit is vanishingly small. Westminster will do whatever it takes to avoid that 'shock' happening on their watch. A semi-permanent state of transition seems more likely.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 20 Oct 2017, 21:24

UndercoverElephant wrote: That may be true, but it should not be a reason to allow the EU to dictate that we accept a truly terrible deal. It would be far better to walk away with no deal. Yes, it will be extremely painful, for both the UK and the EU. But this country has survived worse things, and anything is better than surrendering our sovereignty to these arrogant, unelected bastards.

They are trying to blackmail us into giving up our sovereignty, and we must resist regardless of the consequences. We should be preparing for a no-deal Brexit now, and make it clear to the EU that that is precisely what we are doing. And we need to mean it.

Juncker, Barnier et all need to be taught a lesson about what happens to foreigners who try to shaft the British people. They need to read their history books. We are not like them. The British Isles have not been successfully invaded for nearly 1000 years, nor have our borders changed (apart from internally). We resisted nazis alone, and we succeeded where they all failed. We defeated the French and the Spanish repeatedly before that, even though both those nations had larger populations and greater resources.

Yes, a no-deal Brexit will hurt the UK and cause a huge amount of disruption and change, much of it unwelcome. But it will also leave a monumental hole in the EU budget, and seriously screw up all sorts of things for them too. No more tariff-free exports of German cars to the UK. No more European boats stealing our fish. Bring it on.

Who do the fish really belong to.

Putting that aside.

a) The EU commission as not directly elected (much like most council executives in the UK), but they are appointed by elected officials.

b) I thought this was about getting the best deal for the UK rather than stuffing Johnny foreigner.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 21 Oct 2017, 08:38

johnhemming2 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote: That may be true, but it should not be a reason to allow the EU to dictate that we accept a truly terrible deal. It would be far better to walk away with no deal. Yes, it will be extremely painful, for both the UK and the EU. But this country has survived worse things, and anything is better than surrendering our sovereignty to these arrogant, unelected bastards.

They are trying to blackmail us into giving up our sovereignty, and we must resist regardless of the consequences. We should be preparing for a no-deal Brexit now, and make it clear to the EU that that is precisely what we are doing. And we need to mean it.

Juncker, Barnier et all need to be taught a lesson about what happens to foreigners who try to shaft the British people. They need to read their history books. We are not like them. The British Isles have not been successfully invaded for nearly 1000 years, nor have our borders changed (apart from internally). We resisted nazis alone, and we succeeded where they all failed. We defeated the French and the Spanish repeatedly before that, even though both those nations had larger populations and greater resources.

Yes, a no-deal Brexit will hurt the UK and cause a huge amount of disruption and change, much of it unwelcome. But it will also leave a monumental hole in the EU budget, and seriously screw up all sorts of things for them too. No more tariff-free exports of German cars to the UK. No more European boats stealing our fish. Bring it on.
Who do the fish really belong to.

Not the Spanish.

a) The EU commission as not directly elected (much like most council executives in the UK), but they are appointed by elected officials.

Which means they are no answerable to the public.

b) I thought this was about getting the best deal for the UK rather than stuffing Johnny foreigner.

It is not possible to "get the best deal" if the person you are dealing with is more interested in punishing you than getting a fair deal. That is the problem here. The EU sees making sure the UK pays a heavy price for leaving the EU as its number one priority. They are putting politics above economics, and not for the first time. That leaves the UK with a choice between a deal that is extremely bad for the UK and very good for the EU, or no deal at all, which would be bad for both the UK and the EU. In those circumstances, the only sensible thing to do is walk away. This may prompt EU leaders to tell their bovver-boys to offer us a fairer deal, in which case we can return to negotiating. But we must also be prepared to go it alone.