1) the Gulf States have ended all relations with Qatar, blockading its ports and leaving the tiny gas rich state with only 3 weeks worth of food.
2) terrorist attack in Iran today targeting the Iranian parliament. Islamic State have declared responsibility. Iran has accused Saudi Arabia of being behind the attack.
Lets repeat that, Iran has just accused Saudi Arabia of orchestrating a terror attack on its parliament!
If this crisis escalates, missiles could start flying across the Gulf and the critical oil and gas supplies will be stopped.
The apparently coordinated assaults have been blamed by Iran’s hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Saudi Arabia and, whatever the truth of the allegation, they are likely to have a big political impact far beyond Iran, stoking tensions with the US, Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Muslim monarchies of the Gulf.
Islamic State quickly claimed responsibility – if true, it would mean the militant group has finally succeeded in importing its divisive brand of random terror into the home of its principal Shia Muslim adversary.
This is definitely something worth monitoring...
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
Certainly cause for concern.
It will PROBABLY all blow over as this sort of thing usually does without much effect on the wider world.
However eventually one of these local arguments will get out of control and have most serious consequences for the price and availability of oil and natural gas.
It would be well to review ones preps for both shortages of transport fuel, and for power cuts due to scarcity of natural gas on which we are increasingly reliant for electricity generation.
Even if THIS crisis blows over, what about the next one, and those following ?
Eventually the ME is going to blow up, it is full of people who hate each other.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Sarajevo 1914, Doha 2017? We could be at a historic moment akin to the assassination of the heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, which resulted in what became known as the Great War. This time, though, the possible clash is between a Saudi-United Arab Emirates force and Iran. Washington is going to have to act quickly to stop the march to war, rather than wait for the carnage to begin.
The nominal target of Saudi Arabia and the UAE is Qatar, which has long diverged from the Arab Gulf consensus over Iran. Riyadh and a growing list of Arab countries broke ties Monday with the gas-rich emirate, and Saudi Arabia announced that it had halted permission for Qatari overflights, closed the land border, and banned ships bound for Qatar transiting its waters. This is a casus belli by almost any definition. For perspective, the Six-Day War, which occurred 50 years ago this week, was prompted by Egypt’s closure of the Straits of Tiran, thus cutting off Israel’s access to the Red Sea.
In response, Iran reportedly announced it will allow Qatar to use three of its ports to collect the food imports on which the country is dependent — a gesture that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi will probably see as only confirming Doha’s treacherous ties with Tehran.
Agree Adam that it will probably blow over and cool heads prevail.
On the other hand, the Middle East is not known for cool heads and various parties might prefer to escalate matters (Iranian hardliners, ISIS and factions within Saudi Arabia).
Adam - what is your takeon the supply implications of actual war breaking out?
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
The degree of disruption to oil supplies would be very dependant on the length of the war.
A brief war in which one side soon wins would have relatively little effect on oil supplies. The winning side would probably be keen to restore exports ASAP as they would want the money.
A longer drawn out war could be much more serious since supplies would be affected for the duration, and more infrastructure damage is likely meaning that even peace would not bring normal supplies.
The worst option of all (excluding a nuclear conflict) would be a long drawn out terrorist war with gradual but random attacks on oil related infrastructure.
Consider as an illustrative example.
Week 1 use a missile to sink a random oil tanker.
Week 2 use another missile on a major oil port.
Week 3 blow up the ME headquarters of a major oil company.
Week 4 blow up an LNG terminal in the UK.
Week 5 do nothing but publicly promise a "major escalation"
Week 6 blow up a LNG tanker.
Week 7 blow up a consulate or embassy in a major oil producer.
Week 8 blow up a few random oil wells.
Week 9 blow up an important oil pipeline.
Continue broadly similar attacks in an unpredictable and random way for a year or so.
That could be serious.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Saudi Arabia and its allies have issued an extraordinary ultimatum to Qatar that sets the stage for a dramatic escalation of the confrontation that began with the imposition of a diplomatic and economic blockade in early June. Qatar has been given 10 days to agree to a sweeping list of 13 demands or face unspecified consequences. Acquiescence would transform the tiny, energy-rich Gulf state into a political vassal of Riyadh.
The demands, which were published yesterday, are a calculated provocation, which, as Saudi Arabia and its allies understand only too well, will almost certainly be rejected. According to the Associated Press (AP), Qatar’s neighbours are insisting that their demands are a bottom line—that is, non-negotiable—and are warning of further penalties beyond the existing restrictions on air, sea and land routes.
Yousef al-Otaiba, United Arab Emirates (UAE) ambassador to the US, told AP that there would be “no military element� to the sanctions on Qatar, but no credence can be placed in this assurance. The imposition of a blockade by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE and Bahrain is tantamount to an act of war and provides ample opportunity for a provocation that could precipitate military conflict.
Things are heating up in the Middle East.
Reminds me of Austria-Hungarian ultimatum to Serbia which triggered WW1.
Not sure how this crisis will evolve in the coming weeks.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
As Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets points out in a new note, Trump in the White House means that MBS will encounter minimum opposition from Washington and a far freer hand in pursuing his ambitions in the region. Arms deals to help him pursue them follow naturally.
The dangers are obvious – a newly empowered young prince unafraid, as we have seen in Yemen and now Qatar, to pursue regional conflict, emboldened by a world superpower.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
The Saudi ultimatum ends on July 3, the anniversary of the Saudi sponsored military coup against the Qatari backed Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt. One demand in the ultimatum is for Qatar to end all support for the Brotherhood.
The ultimatum will likely be rejected. Qatar will simply not respond until the Saudis and others lift their blockade of the country. If the Saudis want war they should launch it right away, the Qatari ruler thinks. Doha is sure that the U.S. will not allow that. Ten-thousand U.S. troops are stationed in Qatar. It hosts a major U.S. air base and the important Central Command, which leads the war against ISIS and Syria. Qatar just bought U.S. fighter jets for $12 billion and is offering to take a 10% share of American Airlines.
Turkish troops have arrived to protect the sheikdom. One unexpected Saudi demand is that all Turkish troops leave Qatar. The Erdogan government, a Muslim Brotherhood branch, responded with a snippy "Make me do so":
A load of threats but will KSA actually follow through with their threats? After all the Saudi military has not performed with any great valour in Yemen - if anything quite the reverse.
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
This convoluted trail of events does corroborate the famous December 2015 memo by the BND – German intelligence, according to which the House of Saud had adopted “an impulsive policy of intervention�, with then Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince MBS, a “gambler�, bound to cause a lot of trouble.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
"Gulf sates give Qatar another 48 hours to comply with demands"
Not certain if this is a climb down "they did not do what we wanted so we will give them more time" or whether it is an escalation "keep up the pressure by issuing more threats"
