General Election June 8

[Potemkin Villager]

I am going to bed happier but I would have been much happier if that obnoxious evil she devil Crudd has been booted out. Generally a night to remember.

[PS_RalphW]

This is the worst possible result for Brexi t negotiations. We have shown the EU that we totally split as a nation and have no idea who or how we will negotiate. May could survive on the basis that there is no-one who could get a majority of Tory MPs to agree on. The EU will simply dig their heels in and say stay or go. There is nothing to talk about, and no one to talk with..

[UndercoverElephant]

I am going to bed happier but I would have been much happier if that obnoxious evil she devil Crudd has been booted out. Generally a night to remember.

Yes and yes. I took the dog for a walk about half an hour ago and ran into a couple of people coming back from the count. Sad locally, but very happy with the bigger picture.

[Lord Beria3]

This is the worst possible result for Brexi t negotiations. We have shown the EU that we totally split as a nation and have no idea who or how we will negotiate. May could survive on the basis that there is no-one who could get a majority of Tory MPs to agree on. The EU will simply dig their heels in and say stay or go. There is nothing to talk about, and no one to talk with..

Agree. May has no mandate, no consensus re the type of brexit to pursue and our position massively weakened.

The failure of Labour/UKIP Leave voters to vote Tory will lead to a softer brexit with less focus on immigration. Why would the Tories bother if the Midlands and north never go Tory?

[adam2]

I predict a period of weak, unstable government unable to do anything much.
A coalition between conservative and lib-dem seems unlikely as last time the lib-dems did that it cost them dearly in the subsequent election.
Any such coalition would have a tiny majority and be very vulnerable to any defections, resignations or deaths.

A coalition between the conservatives and the DUP might be a theoretical possibility but would have an even smaller majority and be even more vulnerable.

A conservative and SNP coalition seems too improbable to be seriously considered.

A coalition between labour and most of the others looks a theoretical possibility, but would need a lot of "others" with widely differing views.
A labour and SNP coalition would not have a majority.
Even a 3 way coalition of labour SNP, AND lib-dem would still fail to exceed the conservatives, let alone achive an overall majority.

[UndercoverElephant]

I predict a period of weak, unstable government unable to do anything much.
A coalition between conservative and lib-dem seems unlikely as last time the lib-dems did that it cost them dearly in the subsequent election.
Any such coalition would have a tiny majority and be very vulnerable to any defections, resignations or deaths.

A coalition between the conservatives and the DUP might be a theoretical possibility but would have an even smaller majority and be even more vulnerable.

A conservative and SNP coalition seems too improbable to be seriously considered.

A coalition between labour and most of the others looks a theoretical possibility, but would need a lot of "others" with widely differing views.
A labour and SNP coalition would not have a majority.
Even a 3 way coalition of labour SNP, AND lib-dem would still fail to exceed the conservatives, let alone achive an overall majority.

It is a total and utter f*ckup, to the extent that not even another election offers a safe way out. At the most critical point in modern political history.

Strong and stable, oh yes.

[PS_RalphW]

Agreement with DUP announced. Working majority 3

[raspberry-blower]

One thing that has been largely overlooked until now is that of Sterling.

It has been sliding recently and will continue to be extremely volatile - certainly for the short term at least. I suspect that this may go on for longer and will adversely impact the currency markets.

At what point does the BoE intervene to try and stabilise the Pound? Mark Carney only knows one trick - cut interest rates to create massive housing bubbles that eventually burst - and is hopelessly out of his depth here.

Don't expect this concern to be reflected in the FTSE100 - at least not initially. The FTSE100 is not a barometer of how the UK economy is doing as many of the companies listed here are multi-nationals. A weaker £ actually benefits them as in earnings per share etc converted into sterling makes them look good for investors.

[UndercoverElephant]

Agreement with DUP announced. Working majority 3

Not exactly a recipe for strong and stable government. Who knows where this will lead, but my guess is another General Election before Christmas.

[AutomaticEarth]

Agreement with DUP announced. Working majority 3

Not exactly a recipe for strong and stable government. Who knows where this will lead, but my guess is another General Election before Christmas.

Yes I think a GE before Christmas could be on the cards. I can't see the Tories hanging in there for long. Wouldn't be surprised if May is gone in the next few weeks either, but who'll replace her. Hopefully someone 'strong and stable'.

You've got to hand it to Corbyn - he put the effort in, got out there, and manged to get young voters and some angly UKIP'ers to vote for Labour.

I'm also wondering if the 'grey vote' collapsed and cost the Tories their majority?

[UndercoverElephant]

Agreement with DUP announced. Working majority 3

Not exactly a recipe for strong and stable government. Who knows where this will lead, but my guess is another General Election before Christmas.

Yes I think a GE before Christmas could be on the cards. I can't see the Tories hanging in there for long. Wouldn't be surprised if May is gone in the next few weeks either, but who'll replace her. Hopefully someone 'strong and stable'.

Until this morning, the obvious candidate was Amber Rudd, but Rudd is now sitting on a majority of 300. Boris Johnson will put his hat in the ring, but I can't see him lasting long.

I'm also wondering if the 'grey vote' collapsed and cost the Tories their majority?

It didn't collapse, but it did go a bit soft, I think.

[johnhemming2]

Plus the DUP the tories have 328 against a reliable opposition of 317. I am not personally expecting an election (but I did not expect this one).

They would only have an election if they were defeated on something material. Any rebellious MPs would have the whip removed for such an election and hence be de-selected.

[Potemkin Villager]

Agreement with DUP announced. Working majority 3

A marriage made in hell if ever there was one. Believe me his will not end at all well.

[UndercoverElephant]

Plus the DUP the tories have 328 against a reliable opposition of 317. I am not personally expecting an election (but I did not expect this one).

You also expected a comfortable tory majority - your recent predictions about political events have been consistently wrong.

Theresa May has no authority, no mandate and her reputation is smashed into tiny pieces. She herself called this election, she said, because the country needed "strong and stable leadership", and that required her to have a bigger majority than she had. Now she's heading a minority government, and at the same time the opposition is far become far stronger. There's absolutely no way she can sustain this position for very long - behind the scenes the knives will already be out for her. It is only a matter of time before she's replaced as tory leader and I strongly suspect that whoever replaces her calls another election.

They would only have an election if they were defeated on something material.

We'll see. I believe the Brexit negotiations will be the end of her, and quite soon.

[johnhemming2]

Politics is moving towards more extreme positions (see Northern Ireland for an example). I don't personally see that as positive.