General Election June 8

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 07 Jun 2017, 16:07

UE, what is your facebook Id so I can share that post

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Jun 2017, 16:35

Little John wrote:UE, what is your facebook Id so I can share that post

Looks like you found it....

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 07 Jun 2017, 19:01

My head says that it will be a relatively modest increase in the Tory majority to 60/70.

This is in line with Nadeem of Market Oracle who has a superb track record in predicting UK elections/referendums and Lord Ashcroft's independent modelling.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/as ... estimates/

The Conservatives remain on course to win a majority in the general election, according to new figures from the Ashcroft Model. Our “combined probabilistic model”, which calculates the sum of each party’s win chances in all the seats in which it is standing, estimates 357 Tory seats, or a potential majority of 64 (up four from the previous update published last Friday)

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article59295.html

And so here is my UK General Election 2017 final forecast conclusion on the basis of the sum of my analysis of the past 6 weeks which is for the Conservatives to win the election with a 66 seat majority by increasing their seats total from 331 to 358. I expect Labour to drop by 20 seats to 212 with the Lib Dems gaining 4 to 12, and I expect the Scottish nationalists to lose 10 seats by dropping from 56 to 46.

On the other hand, Nadeem also states that he would not be surprised if the Tories do better then expected and win around a 100 seats on the night (his second most likely outcome).

This tallies with Moszynski, who successfully predicted the 2015 Tory majority, the Leave result (I published his article a day before the referendum on this forum!) who predicts a Tory majority of 105.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LONDONadman/ ... 97/photo/1

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

According to the latest forecast by University of East Anglia's Chris Hanretty, Conservatives majority of 100

Summary... going with my gut instinct with a Tory majority of 104 (with a margin of error of 20 seats either way - e.g. 82 to 122 seats).

However, wouldn't be shocked if the Tory majority turns out to be half that on the night.

Will be writing a blog post tonight on the subject going into detail on why I think this is most likely outcome which I will publish later on this evening.

AutomaticEarth · Post by **AutomaticEarth** » 07 Jun 2017, 21:10

Despite Theresa May's best efforts to lose the election, it looks like the Tories could get a 100 seat majority after all, at least according to the Torygraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06 ... -election/

45 seat gains would see the Tories end up with a majority of 100 in Parliament, with May's 375 MPs dwarfing the 275 MPs of all the other parties.

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 07 Jun 2017, 21:35

There are indeed many ifs, coulds and maybes!

One stand out bit of the torygraph article is :-

" An astonishing 246,487 young people registered to vote on the cut-off for being eligible for the election.

This figure eclipses the equivalent of 137,400 on the last day for registrations in 2015 and means that over one million 18-24 year olds have registered since the election was called on April 18.

Younger voters tend to be much more likely to vote for Labour so this news will encourage Jeremy Corbyn.

However, younger voters are also far less likely to actually turn out and vote on election day - with just 43 per cent of 18-24 year-olds doing so in 2015 compared to an average of 66 per cent across all ages.

Labour's chances of success on June 8 will, in part, be reliant on how many of these younger voters will turn up to the polling booth."

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 07 Jun 2017, 22:07

https://forecastingintelligence.org/201 ... rediction/

Here you go folks.

Will find out soon if I have got this totally wrong!

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Jun 2017, 22:53

Potemkin Villager wrote:There are indeed many ifs, coulds and maybes!

One stand out bit of the torygraph article is :-

" An astonishing 246,487 young people registered to vote on the cut-off for being eligible for the election.

This figure eclipses the equivalent of 137,400 on the last day for registrations in 2015 and means that over one million 18-24 year olds have registered since the election was called on April 18.

Younger voters tend to be much more likely to vote for Labour so this news will encourage Jeremy Corbyn.

However, younger voters are also far less likely to actually turn out and vote on election day - with just 43 per cent of 18-24 year-olds doing so in 2015 compared to an average of 66 per cent across all ages.

Labour's chances of success on June 8 will, in part, be reliant on how many of these younger voters will turn up to the polling booth."

Yes. If you assume they all turn out, and that the polling data is accurate when it suggests two-thirds will vote for Labour and only one sixth will vote tory, and then distribute them across all the constituencies equally, this would be worth about 1000 votes for Labour in each of them. If nothing else changed from 2015, that would mean Labour taking 18 seats of the tories.

Unfortunately I don't think it is going to make enough difference to swing the result.

AutomaticEarth · Post by **AutomaticEarth** » 07 Jun 2017, 23:32

Some interesting points were raised on Newsnight by Paul Mason just now.

He pointed out that you do not get many hecklers at any rallies now, either for Labour or the Tories, and mentioned that this is a bad sign for democracy in general.....

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 08 Jun 2017, 13:43

Wishing the best of luck to you UK voters today and may the winner turn out to be a good and competent leader regardless of party.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 08 Jun 2017, 15:55

vtsnowedin wrote:Wishing the best of luck to you UK voters today and may the winner turn out to be a good and competent leader regardless of party.

Cheers. Wait until 10pm GMT this evening when the exit poll is released and things might start to get very interesting. This is the strangest UK general election I've ever witnessed. Very hard to predict the outcome.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 08 Jun 2017, 20:25

Remarkable range of final polling forecasts by the polling agencies... from a 1% Tory lead to a 12% Tory lead! Somebody must be right!

Or maybe they are all wrong? Oh well, will find out soon enough!

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 08 Jun 2017, 21:27

Lord Beria3 wrote:Remarkable range of final polling forecasts by the polling agencies... from a 1% Tory lead to a 12% Tory lead! Somebody must be right!

Actually, one poll yesterday put Labour 3 points ahead.

http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election ... ive-winner

Final election poll gives Jeremy Corbyn the lead over Theresa May for the first time

Eve-of-vote poll by research company Qriously gives Labour a slender advantage over the Tories for the first time

AutomaticEarth · Post by **AutomaticEarth** » 08 Jun 2017, 21:59

Tories leading by 8 points. Not good enough to get a good majority.

What does everyone else think?

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 08 Jun 2017, 22:06

She's toast!

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 08 Jun 2017, 22:15

Lord Beria3 wrote: Summary... going with my gut instinct with a Tory majority of 104 (with a margin of err

So, Beria, seen the exit poll?