British GE - Powerswitch decides

[UndercoverElephant]

I was talking to a 20 year old today - who's voting Corbyn (pretty safe Tory seat). Also said, all his mates, basically everyone he knows are doing likewise. This is a bunch of people (not these same people, but the demographic) who weren't at all interested in latter stage Blair, Brown or Miliband. I wonder how polls are capturing or modelling how the shape of turnout may well be different this time.

This Yougov model is the way forward, even if this time round they still haven't ironed out all the wrinkles. National swing statistics are of limited use, even if you get the national figure right. Plus there's a lot of different demographic-specific nuances, some of which (like your example) are enough to substantially influence the final seat tallies.

My head is telling me the youngsters won't turn out in such great numbers, as usual, and that the tories are going to get modest two-figure majority. But my intuition is telling me something else - that maybe this time it is different, and maybe also the pollster's attempts to compensate for previous pro-Labour biases in their results, are skewing most of the traditional polls. Maybe Yougov have got it right, in which case they will have spectacularly stolen a march on the the other polling companies.

Can't wait for Thursday now. And I don't think I will completely give up hope even if the exit poll gives the tories a 4 or 5% lead, because clever voting in marginal constituencies could still deprive Theresa May of her majority. It might be very close indeed, and we still won't know whether she's going to limp over the finish line with a majority until 5am.

[RenewableCandy]

The "haven't got a heart...haven't got a head" thing is olde hat.

Even if it were true in Churchill's day, it's no longer the case now.

Churchill (aIui) cheerfully *didn't* murder the then-newly-minted NHS. Tax rates under his govt were more progressive than anything Corbyn dare propose right now.

Today's Labour is in about the same L-R position as yesterday's Tories.

Today's Tories are basically just asset-strippers on behalf of the super-rich. May's doing badly because she isn't very good at disguising the fact.

[Little John]

BBC Radio 4 PM show going into full on North Korea mode to push Tory line on the London attacks and to trash Corbyn vis a vis those attacks this evening.

I haven't looked. but my guess is the rest of the BBC will be doing the same.

[vtsnowedin]

The "haven't got a heart...haven't got a head" thing is olde hat.

Even if it were true in Churchill's day, it's no longer the case now.

Churchill (aIui) cheerfully *didn't* murder the then-newly-minted NHS. Tax rates under his govt were more progressive than anything Corbyn dare propose right now.

Today's Labour is in about the same L-R position as yesterday's Tories.

Today's Tories are basically just asset-strippers on behalf of the super-rich. May's doing badly because she isn't very good at disguising the fact.

It maybe older then dirt but peoples thinking does change as they age and gain real experience beyond their schooling. As to Churchill's tax rates and support of the NHS you have to recall first that it was war time and shortly after and their were tremendous bills to pay both for the war effort and the rebuilding of the bombed out industry and housing and second in 1945 what the doctors and hospitals could do for you didn't amount to more then first aid by today,s standards so the bills were just a fraction of what they are now.
My own entrance into this world cost my father's insurance in 1955 just $116.95 which was discounted $7.50 if the bill was settled within two weeks.
That did not include the attending physician's bill but did include five days for my Mother's stay at $15.00 per day and $17.50 for my infant care.

[UndercoverElephant]

BBC Radio 4 PM show going into full on North Korea mode to push Tory line on the London attacks and to trash Corbyn vis a vis those attacks this evening.

I haven't looked. but my guess is the rest of the BBC will be doing the same.

The report I saw from Norman Smith was making clear that May is vulnerable to accusations that she oversaw a large cut in police numbers.

[Little John]

Yes, there are small, tentative signs at the edges of the MSM of some breaking of ranks as a few of the rats are beginning to sense the ship may sink.

[Potemkin Villager]

Reasons to be cheerful especially on a Monday morning in Hastings and Rye.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/

[clv101]

BBC Radio 4 PM show going into full on North Korea mode to push Tory line on the London attacks and to trash Corbyn vis a vis those attacks this evening.

I haven't looked. but my guess is the rest of the BBC will be doing the same.

I only caught a snippet today, but is was a pretty fair account of how armed police numbers have been cut under May's Home Office.

[raspberry-blower]

BBC Radio 4 PM show going into full on North Korea mode to push Tory line on the London attacks and to trash Corbyn vis a vis those attacks this evening.

I haven't looked. but my guess is the rest of the BBC will be doing the same.

I only caught a snippet today, but is was a pretty fair account of how armed police numbers have been cut under May's Home Office.

https://www.thecanary.co/2017/06/05/ano ... ng-public/

Mark Serwotka of the Public and Commercial Services union was at the conference representing PCSOs. He said in regards to recent terror attacks:

‘
Nobody here will say: ‘If it wasn’t for this cut, that wouldn’t have happened.’ It would be folly to say so. But what we can say is that the figures speak for themselves and questions need to be asked – you need to put resources in to continually keep people safe.

It would be a dereliction of duty if those people representing frontline workers did not get the message across that the swingeing cuts that took place under Theresa May’s watch are having a very real impact.
’

[UndercoverElephant]

Yes, there are small, tentative signs at the edges of the MSM of some breaking of ranks as a few of the rats are beginning to sense the ship may sink.

There are also quite a few people like myself, who genuinely believed that for all his good intentions, Corbyn simply wasn't capable of making a real difference in a general election. He's been helped by Theresa May's woefully incompetent performance, but he's also surprised a lot of people with the quality of his own. There's a difference between criticising Corbyn because you don't want him to do well, and criticising him because you think he isn't capable of doing well and because you don't want a tory government. For people in the latter category, it is obvious that now is the time to admit we under-estimated his appeal.

[Little John]

I don't think Corbyn is fundamentally the appeal, if I am honest. It is what he is a place-holder for. The truth, also, is that I have significant disagreements with him on some of his more woolly liberal values. But, in terms of his fundamental socialist instincts, I am on the same page.

There is clearly a shift in the zeitgeist across much of the West and, indeed, the world born of all the underlying structural stresses we have all discussed at length on here. And it can go both ways - either the left or the right. Our job is to make sure it goes to the left. However, there are many more battles yet to be won and moral dilemmas to be faced in the years to come that a man like Jeremy Corbyn is not capable of facing.

But, one battle at a time......

[UndercoverElephant]

Reasons to be cheerful especially on a Monday morning in Hastings and Rye.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/

Yes. Unless the polls are considerably over-stating Labour's position, and the tories get a decent majority, Corbyn has won, and both the Blairites and the Tories have lost even if they numerically win. Theresa May's "brand" cannot be rehabilitated. She could resign as party leader, but given the Brexit timetable and the fact that 6 weeks have already been wasted, can the tories really waste more time having a divisive leadership election? Is that "strong and stable"? What would the pro-EU tory MPs do, well aware that the Brexit negotiation has been well and truly f**ked up even before it has started? But if she stays as PM then it is still all going to go tits up very quickly indeed, because the EU now hold nearly all the cards, and they will smell blood. It is surely a recipe for the tories bombing in the polls, because, as the article points out, the tories aren't even preparing for the possibility of walking away without a deal. Meanwhile, Corbyn will be free to finish the job of re-inventing the Labour Party, this time without the Blairites stabbing him in the back and the left/liberal parts of the MSM writing him off as unelectable. The tory press will keep smearing him, of course, but that isn't likely to make any difference, because the readership of those newspapers constitutes the 25% of the electorate who would vote tory even if the candidate was a dog.

It looks to me like Corbyn has already won, even if he loses.

[UndercoverElephant]

I don't think Corbyn is fundamentally the appeal, if I am honest. It is what he is a place-holder for. The truth, also, is that I have significant disagreements with him on some of his more woolly liberal values. But, in terms of his fundamental socialist instincts, I am on the same page.

There is clearly a shift in the zeitgeist across much of the West and, indeed, the world born of all the underlying structural stresses we have all discussed at length on here. And it can go both ways - either the left or the right. Our job is to make sure it goes to the left. However, there are many more battles yet to be won and moral dilemmas to be faced in the years to come that a man like Jeremy Corbyn is not capable of facing.

But, one battle at a time......

Corbyn is no spring chicken. His role in this is to break neoliberalism in the UK, and re-invent the Labour Party. I doubt he'll still be leader if the next election is in 2022. As far as the things you are talking about are concerned (i.e. immigration, the relationship between the UK and the EU), Corbyn alone cannot and will not decide this. It will either be left in the hands of a Tory party which doesn't have a plan, or there's going to have to be some sort of agreement between Corbyn and the SNP, and probably the LDs, as to how to proceed. As you say - one battle at a time - and right now the priority is to get the tories out of power. I don't think it is helpful to guess what might happen next. Cross that bridge when we come to it.

[vtsnowedin]

I don't think Corbyn is fundamentally the appeal, if I am honest. It is what he is a place-holder for. The truth, also, is that I have significant disagreements with him on some of his more woolly liberal values. But, in terms of his fundamental socialist instincts, I am on the same page.

There is clearly a shift in the zeitgeist across much of the West and, indeed, the world born of all the underlying structural stresses we have all discussed at length on here. And it can go both ways - either the left or the right. Our job is to make sure it goes to the left. However, there are many more battles yet to be won and moral dilemmas to be faced in the years to come that a man like Jeremy Corbyn is not capable of facing.

But, one battle at a time......

Corbyn is no spring chicken. His role in this is to break neoliberalism in the UK, and re-invent the Labour Party. I doubt he'll still be leader if the next election is in 2022. As far as the things you are talking about are concerned (i.e. immigration, the relationship between the UK and the EU), Corbyn alone cannot and will not decide this. It will either be left in the hands of a Tory party which doesn't have a plan, or there's going to have to be some sort of agreement between Corbyn and the SNP, and probably the LDs, as to how to proceed. As you say - one battle at a time - and right now the priority is to get the tories out of power. I don't think it is helpful to guess what might happen next. Cross that bridge when we come to it.

Ahem!!
Not wanting to butt in on your national business but would it not be important for the opposition to the Tories to have a plan about the way to proceed that a majority would rally around?

[UndercoverElephant]

I don't think Corbyn is fundamentally the appeal, if I am honest. It is what he is a place-holder for. The truth, also, is that I have significant disagreements with him on some of his more woolly liberal values. But, in terms of his fundamental socialist instincts, I am on the same page.

There is clearly a shift in the zeitgeist across much of the West and, indeed, the world born of all the underlying structural stresses we have all discussed at length on here. And it can go both ways - either the left or the right. Our job is to make sure it goes to the left. However, there are many more battles yet to be won and moral dilemmas to be faced in the years to come that a man like Jeremy Corbyn is not capable of facing.

But, one battle at a time......

Corbyn is no spring chicken. His role in this is to break neoliberalism in the UK, and re-invent the Labour Party. I doubt he'll still be leader if the next election is in 2022. As far as the things you are talking about are concerned (i.e. immigration, the relationship between the UK and the EU), Corbyn alone cannot and will not decide this. It will either be left in the hands of a Tory party which doesn't have a plan, or there's going to have to be some sort of agreement between Corbyn and the SNP, and probably the LDs, as to how to proceed. As you say - one battle at a time - and right now the priority is to get the tories out of power. I don't think it is helpful to guess what might happen next. Cross that bridge when we come to it.

Ahem!!
Not wanting to butt in on your national business but would it not be important for the opposition to the Tories to have a plan about the way to proceed that a majority would rally around?

Not at this point in the proceedings, no.

Ask on Friday.