General Election June 8

[Blue Peter]

20+ points to this, and Theresa May had the advantage of knowing there was going to be election while Corbyn did not. Although I am beginning to wonder whether she just had a funny moment one night and decided to call an election even she wasn't expecting.

It's *so* annoying that *someone* called an election right when Theresa May was trying to concentrate on Brexit


Peter.

[raspberry-blower]

An interesting view was posited on the House Price Crash forum here . If this is Theresa May's strategy I think I can spot a fatal flaw in it. Well several, in fact.

My own view is that the Tories know that an economic recession is well on the way - for example Nationwide BS today announced house prices have declined for 3 months running . They could try and lose overall control and then say "but the economic crash didn't happen on our watch" - although their policies will be responsible.

As an aside, Theresa May was in Plymouth yesterday - the local rag was distinctly underwhelmed.

Plymouth Herald: Three minutes of nothing

Actually underwhelmed is being polite:

Before 8.30am today, I had never interviewed a Prime Minister.

Heading back to the office to transcribe my encounter with Theresa May at Plymouth's fish market, I couldn't be certain that had changed

Ouch!

[UndercoverElephant]

An interesting view was posited on the House Price Crash forum here . If this is Theresa May's strategy I think I can spot a fatal flaw in it. Well several, in fact.

My own view is that the Tories know that an economic recession is well on the way - for example Nationwide BS today announced house prices have declined for 3 months running . They could try and lose overall control and then say "but the economic crash didn't happen on our watch" - although their policies will be responsible.

I know several people who have been tending towards thinking she's deliberately trying to lose the election ever since she said she wanted to bring back foxhunting. That just seemed like a completely pointless thing to do - it could only lose her votes in important seats, but gained her nothing. But there's also the alternative explanation that she was just incredibly arrogant and so certain that she was going to win a huge majority that she could say anything she liked and still win.

I still think it is an almighty c*ck-up, born out of over-confidence and underestimating Corbyn. I don't think she'd sacrifice her own personal reputation and career in order to achieve some perceived greater good. Plus it is just too risky - too hard to avoid the nightmare scenario (if that theory is correct) of ending up with a majority of less than ten. Or, if that yougov model turns out to be about right, ending up with a hung parliament where no credible combination of parties can form a coalition, or where a coalition is formed with Labour leading it, which subsequently reforms the electoral system and locks the tories out of power forever.

No...as usual, when it could either be a c*ck-up or a conspiracy, it is nearly always a c*ck-up.

[UndercoverElephant]

http://evolvepolitics.com/theresa-may-t ... ing-weird/

[Potemkin Villager]

http://evolvepolitics.com/theresa-may-t ... ing-weird/

Thanks for the link UE. The language is delightful. I particularly like the imagery of:-

That’s basically the essence of it. They want to lose. The Tories can no longer polish the turd of Brexit, they know the country is absolutely f**ked – they’ve pushed us off the cliff, and now wish to be as far removed from the inevitable bloodbath as humanly possible. They literally cannot deliver their vacuous promises.

[Lord Beria3]

So, the consensus on this thread is that the Tories are trying to lose the ge.

Lets sort the boys from the men, who has placed money on a Corbyn victory on 8 June.

Talk is easy, lets see who is prepared to put real money on the table. Remember, I put £700 on a Trump victory (and I don't earn a fortune) on the back of my political conviction.

I'm a man. Which are you?

[UndercoverElephant]

So, the consensus on this thread is that the Tories are trying to lose the ge.

No, I don't think so. I think it is just a monumental f*ckup.

And anyway, whether or not they are trying to lose it is something we'll probably never know, so you can't bet on it. Will they actually lose it? Right now I'd say they'll probably win by about 10 seats. (I predicted remain would win by about 52%-48%, and a Trump victory.)

Also, Labour is vanishingly unlikely to win. The key question is whether or not Tory+DUP can muster an overall majority. If they can't then Corbyn will be the next PM.

[clv101]

So, the consensus on this thread is that the Tories are trying to lose the ge.

How'd you work that's out? I don't, you don't, not many do, hardly a consensus?

[Lord Beria3]

OK, maybe not a consensus but certainly one strand of thinking. Either way, cock-up or conspiracy, the logic of those who think the Tories will barely scrape by would suggest that there is now a realistic possibility of a Corbyn government.

Given the odds, surely worth a flutter? If you really think the Tories may only get a 10 seat majority, then it doesn't take a huge leap of logic to think that Corbyn could still edge it into 10 Downing Street.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/ju ... heresa-may

Interesting article. The "Settlers" voting block is fascinating and I am probably a "mild" version of it (a sign of getting older?!). The Tories are doing very well among this crowd.

Labour are increasingly the party of the liberal middle classes and upper-middle classes who strongly backed Remain during the referendum. Certainly my posh liberal lawyer acquaintances on social media are all big Labour supporters.

[UndercoverElephant]

OK, maybe not a consensus but certainly one strand of thinking. Either way, cock-up or conspiracy, the logic of those who think the Tories will barely scrape by would suggest that there is now a realistic possibility of a Corbyn government.

Of course it is a realistic possibility. We've just had a Yougov model predicting the tories 20 short of a majority, and it is widely accepted that this is a very hard election to predict, making the margin of "realistic possibility" wider than it might otherwise be.

Given the odds, surely worth a flutter? If you really think the Tories may only get a 10 seat majority, then it doesn't take a huge leap of logic to think that Corbyn could still edge it into 10 Downing Street.

Eh? If the tories get a majority of 1 then May will continue as Prime Minister (for a while at least). Tory + DUP needs to be 326. Anything less than that and we are in no-mans-land until Lab + LD + SNP + PC + Green + SDLP = 326.

[Potemkin Villager]

A minute Tory majority might just be a less worse outcome than a minute Labour majority whilst a hung parliament would at least reflect the narrow margin of the Britex referendum.

Whatever the outcome expect tempers to fray as reality sinks in.

[clv101]

OK, maybe not a consensus but certainly one strand of thinking. Either way, cock-up or conspiracy, the logic of those who think the Tories will barely scrape by would suggest that there is now a realistic possibility of a Corbyn government.

Given the odds, surely worth a flutter? If you really think the Tories may only get a 10 seat majority, then it doesn't take a huge leap of logic to think that Corbyn could still edge it into 10 Downing Street.

There's a massive difference between a small Tory majority and a Corbyn Prime Minister! The idea that the Tories won't win the election is crazy talk in my opinion. The 'earthquake' is that it looks like being a small Tory majority rather than a 100+ landslide. A hung parliament (Tories largest block by some margin) is an outside possibility. Labour winning is for the birds.

[UndercoverElephant]

There are potentially huge political consequences if the Tories only get a sub-20 majority. Theresa May will still be Prime Minister, but she'll be very seriously damaged. This is unlike anything I can think of in British political history - a Prime Minister calling an unnecessary election at a critical moment, claiming she needs to increase her majority and authority in order to deal competently with Brexit, only to totally screw up the campaign and end up with the same number of seats. This will mean she has effectively wasted two months when everybody relevant should have been working 24/7 on Brexit, and worse, it means she ends up with less authority instead of more, both in terms of malcontents in her own party, and the EU she's supposed to be negotiating with. When you win an election, you are supposed to have a honeymoon period full of hope and renewed energy, but instead Theresa May would have a bucketful of an entirely self-inflicted new problems to deal with. Meanwhile it will be the loser, Jeremy Corbyn, who'll come out smelling of roses, having silenced the Blairites once and for all and demonstrated that his re-invention of the Labour Party has a future.

It all adds up to something unlike anything we've ever witnessed before, and that's in the case of the tories winning! She needs a majority of at least 40 to be able to claim the election was worth it, and more like 60 or 70 for that claim to be convincing. And even if she manages that then she'd be damaged goods.

A hung parliament would be an unspeakable catastrophe for the tories, but there's one possible outcome that is just about apocalyptic, and that is if Tory + DUP total is just a few seats short of 326. This would leave Sinn Fein and the UUP holding the balance of power between the Tories/DUP on one side and all the other parties on the other. I am guessing this would lead to another election, immediately, at which the tories would inevitably lose more seats.

[johnhemming2]

It looks like 40-80 tory majority to me.

[UndercoverElephant]

Today's Yougov projection has the tories on 317, 9 short of a majority. The NI parties aren't broken down, so let us assume none of them change hands. The DUP has 8 seats. That would leave a tory-DUP coalition one short of a majority, which would leave Theresa May with a nightmare choice:

try to govern the UK, through Brexit, for 5 long years, as a minority government totally at the mercy of a handful of malcontents in her own party and, if they fancied causing a problem, 4 Sinn Fein MPs

OR

call another election, wasting another couple of months of valuable Brexit negotiating time, making herself look like a complete idiot while the EU and everybody else wonders where the hell this is all leading.

Or she could always resign as tory party leader, creating an even bigger mess for somebody else to sort out.