General Election June 8

[UndercoverElephant]

Theresa May is truly hopeless. Her interview with Paxman tonight was a terrible. No wonder she's not willing to go face to face with the other leaders.

Ha! Just watching it now. I love the murmur from the audience when Paxman says the words "social care". And this on Sky.

[clv101]

And this on Sky.

And YouTube (rewind, at least for an hour or so?) for those without a TV:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZ ... r_embedded

[Little John]

What is becoming increasingly clear to me is that May has something very brittle about her personality. She looked in that interview like she was going to explode on one or two occasions. She does not look like she is coping too well psychologically. There is something of Gordon Brown about her.

[vtsnowedin]

And this on Sky.

And YouTube (rewind, at least for an hour or so?) for those without a TV:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZ ... r_embedded

Your link does not appear to work for me, at least not today. But let me say that what videos I have seen of PM May leads me to believe she is a professional politician with the skills required to move the UK forward.
I wish I could say as much about Trump.

[UndercoverElephant]

And this on Sky.

And YouTube (rewind, at least for an hour or so?) for those without a TV:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZ ... r_embedded

Your link does not appear to work for me, at least not today. But let me say that what videos I have seen of PM May leads me to believe she is a professional politician with the skills required to move the UK forward.
I wish I could say as much about Trump.

Being more professional than Trump is not anything to write home about.

[vtsnowedin]

And YouTube (rewind, at least for an hour or so?) for those without a TV:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZ ... r_embedded

Your link does not appear to work for me, at least not today. But let me say that what videos I have seen of PM May leads me to believe she is a professional politician with the skills required to move the UK forward.
I wish I could say as much about Trump.

Being more professional than Trump is not anything to write home about.

I think she is more then just slightly ahead of Trump.

[UndercoverElephant]

Here we go again. The SNP are having more difficulties understanding the basic realities of Scottish Independence.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40091999

Independence

Reinforce the Scottish Parliament's right to decide when an independence referendum should happen

Continued Tory attempts to block the referendum would be "democratically unsustainable"

If Scotland chooses to become independent, it should be a member state of the EU

Dear SNP

Re: "Reinforce the Scottish Parliament's right to decide when an independence referendum should happen"

You cannot "reinforce" something that doesn't exist. Holyrood has no right to decide when an independence referendum can happen. All it can do is ask permission from Westminster, which retains full sovereignty over the issue.

Re: "Continued Tory attempts to block the referendum would be "democratically unsustainable"

Firstly, it isn't just the tories who are opposed to a second referendum - it is also every other UK political party, as well as a clear majority of the people of Scotland. Secondly, Westminster doesn't need to "attempt to block such a referendum" - it has absolute power to refuse it. Thirdly, the exercise of this power is perfectly "democratically sustainable", since a majority of both British MPs and the British people do not want a second referendum.

Re: "If Scotland chooses to become independent, it should be a member state of the EU"

Then it will have to apply to join, just like any new member.

It is very hard to take the SNP seriously when they come out with delusional nonsense like this. It is all just talk, with very little connection to reality. I can't believe they are treating the Scottish people with such contempt for their intelligence. Either that or the SNP actually believe their own bullshit.

[clv101]

The latest three polls (ICM, Survation, YouGov) put the Labour vote on 33, 37 and 36% respectively, averaging 35.3%. This compares to past elections; Miliband (2015) 30.4%, Brown (2010) 29.0%, Blair (2005) 35.2%. This is quite incredible after two years of negative media coverage and the universally propagated view that Corbyn is 'unelectable'.

[PS_RalphW]

An analysis from an ?ICM poll expert is that it all boils down to who can motivate their supporters more. Large numbers of 18-24 yo registered in the last week and most will support Corbyn. Equally a lot of the retired will be very nervous of may. If everyone who expressed a political preference actually voted we would never have another Tory government.

[clv101]

If everyone who expressed a political preference actually voted we would never have another Tory government.

This is a key truth that more people need to recognise.

[UndercoverElephant]

The latest three polls (ICM, Survation, YouGov) put the Labour vote on 33, 37 and 36% respectively, averaging 35.3%. This compares to past elections; Miliband (2015) 30.4%, Brown (2010) 29.0%, Blair (2005) 35.2%. This is quite incredible after two years of negative media coverage and the universally propagated view that Corbyn is 'unelectable'.

Yes, it seems pretty incredible, but it also seems incredible that Theresa May could have made such of a pig's ear of the situation she was in. She didn't even need to call an election, let alone totally screw up the campaign. I think a lot of Labour's positive gain in the polls, even their gains from the minor parties rather than the tories, have a lot to do with the Tories making themselves look so beatable when they should have been unbeatable.

Corbyn ought to have been unelectable, and it was on that basis that the election was called. And he would still be unelectable if Theresa May had not demonstrated so clearly that she is incompetent. She's made Corbyn look like a Strong and Stable alternative to herself.

[Lord Beria3]

The latest three polls (ICM, Survation, YouGov) put the Labour vote on 33, 37 and 36% respectively, averaging 35.3%. This compares to past elections; Miliband (2015) 30.4%, Brown (2010) 29.0%, Blair (2005) 35.2%. This is quite incredible after two years of negative media coverage and the universally propagated view that Corbyn is 'unelectable'.

Hang on a minute. The polls leading up to 2015 ge showed Labour higher then what they actually got (30.4%). Polls have usually (barring 1983) have under-estimated Tory support and over-estimated Labour support.

Remember all that talk about hung parliament. I think Labour were on about 33/34% in average polls up to election day.

It is possible that you will see a similar drop in the Labour vote on the ge itself. My Labour friend certainly thinks so. He has bet £10 that Labour will do worse then Ed in 2015 in terms of national vote share.

My own view is that Labour will do a bit better then Ed because enough of the youth vote will come out to support Corbyn unlike previous elections. We will see...

Been reviewing Lord Ashcroft models on the election which makes fascinating reading.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/05/as ... more-15279

You can also access his constituency based predictions as well. My own gut instinct, I suspect, is that the actual result will be somewhere between the 80 odd seat majority and the 160sh odd majority forecast... so around 130.

However, we have still a week to go so all to play for!

[UndercoverElephant]

Remember all that talk about hung parliament.

Remember all that talk about a Theresa May landslide and Corbyn being unelectable?

You look increasingly like a man who is clutching at straws.

[Lord Beria3]

Tories still ahead by 10 per cent in polls.

You are clutching at straws thinking of a Corbyn government.

[clv101]

My own gut instinct, I suspect, is that the actual result will be somewhere between the 80 odd seat majority and the 160sh odd majority forecast... so around 130.

I don't think she'll return a majority over 100. I certainly think she'll win, but a win with only small increase in majority won't look like a win, especially if Corbyn betters Miliband's vote share. It's a bit like LePen, even when she lost, she won...

Corbyn's PLP will likely have fewer MPs next month, but they will likely be less troublesome bunch and his unexpectedly strong performance, must, surely, earn him more respect and co-operation amongst the remaining PLP.

It's the incompetence of Tories these days that's so hard to understand. May, Johnson, Davies, Gove, Fox, Hammond etc... these folk simply aren't the cream of the crop, aren't inspiring and really aren't the people I think are capable of steering the country through the next decade in anything that could be described as successfully.

I'm not saying Corbyn's Labour are more competent, just disappointed the current crop of 2nd-rate Tories.