General Election June 8

[Lord Beria3]

The polls and the overall projected Tory majority do reflect the Scotland and Wales seats.

I repeat, have you got any polling evidence that suggests that Labour are within 5 points behind he Tories which would result in a very small Tory lead/hung parliament?

[UndercoverElephant]

The polls and the overall projected Tory majority do reflect the Scotland and Wales seats.

I repeat, have you got any polling evidence that suggests that Labour are within 5 points behind he Tories which would result in a very small Tory lead/hung parliament?

I've already explained this, but you apparently did not understand the explanation. The overall poll level does NOT take account of the situation in Scotland. All you get is a headline figure - a percentage. That percentage includes Labour polling less than 10% in Scotland, where most of the anti-tory vote is going to the SNP. But that 10% figure is included in the national polling statistics, which therefore understates Labour's position in England and Wales. Add in some anti-tory tactical voting and Theresa May's landslide vanishes. Even if the polls stay where they are right now, there will be no tory landslide. She'll be lucky to get a 50 seat majority. Probably more like 30, and if Labour continues to improve and the tories continue to totally mess their campaign up, we're into hung parliament territory. Although who knows what effect this bombing will have.

[clv101]

Although who knows what effect this bombing will have.

I expect the bombing will be a significant advantage for the Tories. It's provided May with a 'Time-Out' just when she really needed it. The social care, u-turn, pensioner benefits, ivory trade, school meals fiasco has dropped off the media agenda completely to be replaced by May in a black suit looking and sounding all 'strong and stable'.

I'm not for a moment suggesting any kind of government conspiracy but it's certainly helped May's campaign.

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/general-election-2017/

Still don't understand you UE.

The poll on polls, which the Spectator link shows, and the equivalent seats from the parties, include the sizable Scottish contingent.

Assuming the Tories keep their impressive 13% lead over Labour they will get 100 plus majority in the Commons. The SNP will keep the bulk of their seats with the Tories getting a few back from the SNP.

So no benefit to Labour.

The tragic Islamist terror attacks will strengthen the Tories as Corbyn is known as soft on terrorism, including the historic years of IRA terror and current Islamic terrorism.

[Lord Beria3]

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi- ... ndary=2015

This is rather fun. Have a play at the polling and the projected outcome.

[clv101]

The tragic Islamist terror attacks will strengthen the Tories as Corbyn is known as soft on terrorism, including the historic years of IRA terror and current Islamic terrorism.

That's an interesting view. If Corbyn is 'soft of terrorism' what is May? And who's approach is more successful? I would suggest much of the Islamist terrorism threat has arisen as a result of the west's 'War on Terror'.

I expect we'd be facing less of a threat had Corbyn been PM for the last decade+ instead of Blair/Brown/Cameron! 'We' aren't the innocent good guys here and need acknowledge the contribution our foreign policy has had on the threat we now face.

[clv101]

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi- ... ndary=2015

This is rather fun. Have a play at the polling and the projected outcome.

You've got Carmarthen East and Dinefwr as a CON gain from NAT Jonathan Edwards. This is next door to me and seems unlikely, Edwards is a pretty popular local MP and the Labour vote is holding up around here if the locals are an indication. I very much doubt Conservatives will take Carmarthen East.

[Little John]

There are many sound reasons to suspect this attack was a false flag. Or, at the very least, that one of the many Islamic extremist nut-jobs that are in circulation at any one time was allowed to get through.


http://landdestroyer.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... rists.html

[cubes]

This came at the right time for May, she was starting to look weak (strong and stable my arse, if you have to tell people...) and now with the terrorist killings in Manchester as someone said above she's had a chance to regroup. I suspect this may have got her a bigger majority than she would otherwise have had. A few days at "critical" to remind the public and job done for her.

I'll have to admit that during this campaign that Corbyn has grown on me somewhat, not someone I would normally pick for PM but perhaps the better of the 2 main contenders. If nothing else, you know what he stands for.

[vtsnowedin]

There are many sound reasons to suspect this attack was a false flag. Or, at the very least, that one of the many Islamic extremist nut-jobs that are in circulation at any one time was allowed to get through.


http://landdestroyer.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... rists.html

I have to ask how if you are setting up a false flag event how do you get an operative to blow themselves up for something they don't believe in?

[Little John]

Either you are being ridiculously naive or ridiculously disingenuous V.

[emordnilap]

Electoral outcome prediction tool

This is rather fun. Have a play at the polling and the projected outcome.

Fun but also highlights the idiocy of the UK's first-past-the-post system. Even giving Labour a very significant majority of votes, percentage-wise, still keeps them out of power.

[Lord Beria3]

Utter nonsense.

Was the Westminster attack a "false flag" attack as well.

The Tories knew they would take a hit in the polls when they took on wealthy OAP benefits. They did it for the national interest and were aware that they would lose 5% in the polls.

When you are still in double digits in the polls, heading towards a comfortable victory you can afford to take that decision with your core vote.

The Manchester attack is a sign, for those who bothered reading the intelligence reports/media coverage, of the escalating number of plots the security services are trying to stop. There are 3000 dangerous Islamists which the police are supposed to monitor and 500 hardcore jihadi's who are likely to be actively plotting attacks.

The police can't intern these individuals and one potential terrorist, if monitored 24 hours a day, will need up to 20 policemen on that ONE operation.

You don't need to be an Einstein to work out that the security services are overwhelmed and not surprisingly some of these plotters are starting to get through the security firewall.

The idea of a conspiratorial Deep State in some kind of totalitarian control of all these thousands of Islamist nutters may be comforting for some on this forum, but it is far from the truth.

The reality, which in many ways is far more terrifying, is a security/police system overwhelmed by the scale of the threat. As the percentage and sheer number of young Muslims rise, year on year, expect the threat to carry on rising and more plotters to get through.

[Lord Beria3]

civ102 - the threat is Islamist radicalism. They want to impose an Islamist state on Britain, with sharia law, suppression of gay and women rights and imposing second class rights for all non-Muslims.

Our foreign policy is therefore not central to whether they attack us or not.

Saying that, I have been a long opponent of the post-9/11 approach of Western intervention in the Middle East and it hasn't helped matters. It is not the cause.

The biggest reason why we have a serious terrorist threat in the UK was the decision by the Labour government to let in large numbers of Muslims, which has massively increased the burden on our security services.

Without those additional millions of migrants, the terror threat would be far lower.

[UndercoverElephant]

Lets see UE.

Yes, Let's.

All the polls show that May is way ahead of Corbyn on perceptions of competence when it comes to handling Brexit.

I therefore find it rather odd that you say that I am not being realistic when all the polling evidence shows that in every single poll done the Tories are still miles ahead of Labour. If Labour were within 5 points then it would be a different matter but they are not.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 56421.html

Labour slashes Tory lead to just five points

The tories have alienated exactly the people they need to vote for them - the "reasonably well off" but "not exactly rich" in marginal seats. They are in deep trouble. Theresa May doesn't just have to win to save her skin - she has to win big, or she's going to face ongoing problems managing her party and the Brexit negotiations. Calling this election now, when she really didn't need to, and then f*cking up the manifesto and underestimating the opposition.... Not good.