2017 predictions

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 21 Dec 2016, 14:10

vtsnowedin wrote:...
5. I'll have an increasing number of funerals to attend.
6. I'll have a couple of weddings to attend.

Tempus fugit my friend. Its a function of age. Also add christenings to that list as the younger generation try to keep life going as normal.

7. The guardian of the checkbook and I will celebrate our 40'th anniversary.

Congratulations on that milestone, VT. Many people tell me how unusual we are being together for such a long time but, looking at our friends, I think it is the serial divorcees who give the marriage (or should that be divorce) statistics such a bad slant.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 21 Dec 2016, 14:38

We just did our 30th this April. Met her at 21. Married her at 23. We don't mess about up north. Or, at least, not if you are as big and ugly as I am. I figured I might not get another one daft enough to say yes.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 21 Dec 2016, 14:45

Little John wrote:. I figured I might not get another one daft enough to say yes.

Quite the same here.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 21 Dec 2016, 14:50

Yes, I was lucky to find someone who doesn't mind me making our lives an abnormal one.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 21 Dec 2016, 15:30

emordnilap wrote:Yes, I was lucky to find someone who doesn't mind me making our lives an abnormal one.

Oooooohhhhh! Yeeeehhhhh!!! Hallelujah!! Aaaameeen to that!

Although I don't think that my now wife realised it at the time.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 21 Dec 2016, 15:54

kenneal - lagger wrote:
emordnilap wrote:Yes, I was lucky to find someone who doesn't mind me making our lives an abnormal one.
Oooooohhhhh! Yeeeehhhhh!!! Hallelujah!! Aaaameeen to that!

Although I don't think that my now wife realised it at the time.

She was attracted at the time to this financially embarrassed, slightly loopy vegetarian musician and it didn't put her off. It's all gone downhill since.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 22 Dec 2016, 21:48

Well, here are a couple of my predictions, the full list will be published on my forecasting website, in the New Year.

Here are (some) of my forecasts for next year;

1) Geert Wilders of the Party of Freedom will become the biggest party in the March elections, leading to either political paralysis, becoming part of a coalition government in some capacity or the formation of an anti-Wilders coalition of the other parties.

2) Marine Le Pen will likely narrowly win the French presidential elections on the back of a huge surge of support from unemployed youth, the blue-collar working class as well as a middle class “shy Le Pen” vote, assuming she gets through the first round. The left-leaning electorate will largely abstain due to the economically Thatcherite and socially conservative policies of Fillon, which they loathe. The key factor that will likely win the election for Le Pen will be converting a critical section of the nominally leftist public sector middle class vote on a traditionally socialist and anti-austerity message which promises to protect the bloated public sector state from reform and mass redundancies. I would place the probabilistic chance of Le Pen winning at 60%.

3) The German elections will see the populist and anti-establishment AfD narrowly beat the Social Democrats into second place with approximately 20% of the vote. Assuming Merkel runs again, she will be re-elected but will be an increasingly lame duck leader.

4) At least one major West European country will elect a anti-Euro government into power (most likely candidates France or Italy if the latter has elections next year) which will cause a deepening political crisis in the euro zone with a prospect of the disintegration of the currency zone becoming a issue of serious concern for the financial markets.

I realize that the most eye catching one is the Le Pen victory forecast which goes against pretty much all pundit, expert and polling opinion. Will be interested to know what the rest of you guys think about it.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 22 Dec 2016, 23:43

As I stated in my own predictions I don't think Merkel has a chance at reelection.
She has said she will run but I would not be surprised if she sees the writing on the wall and drops out.
I haven't followed the French politics enough to have an opinion there.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 23 Dec 2016, 06:32

PS_RalphW wrote:My younger daughter will go to school for at least one day. My wife will get fitter and a little healthier walking our new puppy Whippets (who are unbearably cute). My new job will continue in spite of it being a money loser for my boss because he believes in making renewable energy as easy and accessible as possible. Hopefully I will not have another family funeral to attend. My older daughter will attend therapy for many many sessions and will begin to realise that the world is not really as scary and dangerous as her brain constantly tells her it is.

(In fact it is, but she is not ready to know that).

I am certain that a lot of bad and scary things will happen in the world, and some small echo of them will reach our sheltered little corner, but I have to focus on my family, because it is only now I have realised just how damaged and frightened my girls have been. I have collected as large and eco friendly a buffer as I can,
and I know it can't last for ever, but for now I must filter it out for my family's and my own mental health.

I am guessing we will see less of you, for all the right reasons. It sounds like you have a lot of responsibilities, and listening to our grim predictions is correctly a low priority. All the best for your family in 2017.

Lurkalot · Post by **Lurkalot** » 23 Dec 2016, 09:09

Lord Beria3 wrote:Well, here are a couple of my predictions, the full list will be published on my forecasting website, in the New Year.

Here are (some) of my forecasts for next year;
.

Apologies if you would rather save it 'till the new year but do you have any predictions on how Trump's presidency will go? I ask partly because facebook seems to be full of people claiming to foresee a very bleak few years ahead of us ranging from financial meltdown to nuclear war. It might be they are correct but the whole thing does appear very one sided and overly pessimistic.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 23 Dec 2016, 12:27

Donald Trump has called for the US to "greatly strengthen and expand" its nuclear capabilities.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38410027

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 23 Dec 2016, 18:46

trump is a despot opinion.......

Moments later, Trump tweeted: “Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!”

Boeing shares immediately took a hit. As it turns out, Boeing doesn’t even have a $4 billion order to make Air Force One planes.

Nothing you don't know, just keeping it in the news.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 23 Dec 2016, 21:08

woodburner wrote:trump is a despot opinion.......

Moments later, Trump tweeted: “Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!”

Boeing shares immediately took a hit. As it turns out, Boeing doesn’t even have a $4 billion order to make Air Force One planes.
Nothing you don't know, just keeping it in the news.

That's pretty old news. Latest on the issue the CEO of Boeing met with Trump in the Northern White house (Trump tower ) and they "Negotiated a better deal" !!
I'm reminded of the line from the movie Fifth Element where Bruce Willis as Corbin Dallas asks"Dose anybody else want to Negotiate?

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 23 Dec 2016, 21:53

I think Trump basically is not that bothered about the rule of law or any principles beyond the principle of self-interest.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 24 Dec 2016, 17:30

Regarding Trump, I expect him to govern in line with my FI post in September, and so far it seems to be gearing up as I expect.

https://forecastingintelligence.org/201 ... residency/

I will be forecasting a American-Russian grand strategic reset at some point next year, with a superpower conference between Putin and Trump and the easing/end of the sanctions regime by next summer.

This is in line with my prediction of a pivot to Russia with the goal of integrating Russia in a global Trump led anti-Chinese alliance.

Trump will also push for trade tariffs with a goal of at least partially restoring manufacturing to the Rust Belt heartland states over the course of the next 5/10 years. Contrary to most pundits, this is a good idea and restoring an industrial base in America is in the countries long-term economic and strategic interests as we enter the world of Scarcity Industrialism.

Overall, I think that Trump will be a good president and will put the Deep State, the corporate elite and Washington back in its box. Ultimately the elites within America rule with the consent of the people and their elected leader, the president. For too long, the Deep State and the financial/corporate oligarchy have ruled and treated presidents as mere front-man and elections as a big charade. No longer.

My view of Trump is similar to Ian Marsh, he is a asshole, but a useful asshole.

http://www.ianwelsh.net/trump-and-the-t ... oligarchs/

http://www.ianwelsh.net/the-trump-china ... h-reality/