Gas alert as demand and prices rise

Post by **clv101** » 28 Nov 2016, 11:29

Here's the latest from Met Office:
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/11/2 ... uary-2017/

...the risk of cold conditions at the start of winter is now greater than it has been in recent winters.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 28 Nov 2016, 12:36

I always like something quantitative as one can draw conclusions from that.

Post by **mikepepler** » 30 Nov 2016, 10:45

Rough should be back online by 9 Dec... http://peakoilupdate.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... 16-17.html

Post by **mikepepler** » 30 Nov 2016, 11:37

Chris, that chart shows a significant shift into the 'below average' compared to the one from a month ago...

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 30 Nov 2016, 13:42

Imagine if we got an extremely cold winter like we had in December 2010! I recorded -12c at midday on the 22nd Dec 2010. It was an extreme month, but they can still happen if the synoptics are right.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 30 Nov 2016, 15:45

adam2 wrote:
fuzzy wrote:It makes a mockery of Thatcher piling up coal stocks at every power stations so the miners could not affect electricity supply. Now we have a knife edge supply from Russia, French/Spanish/German owned infrastucture, and the ISIS funding international uber-capitalist ME countries.
YES, coal though a polluting fuel did have the merits of being largely produced within our own country, and of being easy to stockpile against exceptional demand or industrial disputes.

We are now very reliant on natural gas much of which is imported, and with only limited stocks to cover any interruption to these imports.

IF nothing major breaks
IF no new wars, coup,s or revolts occur in gas producing countries or transit routes.
IF terrorists refrain from attacking gas infrastructure
If no one else outbids us for gas supplies

Then we should muddle through, too many "IF"s though for my liking !

I see there was a power cut for part of London Friday. Just a failed cable but 2600 properties and the streetlights in the area effected for a few hours. A taste of things to come?

Post by **adam2** » 30 Nov 2016, 15:57

Indeed a sign of things to come, but last Fridays power failure in central London was NOT related to any shortage of generating capacity.

It was simply a lack of maintenance and the deferring of upgrades and replacements, or if you believe the power company it was just bad luck.

Post by **mikepepler** » 30 Nov 2016, 16:53

And although Rough is back online soon, there's a problem with our elec interconnector to France:

Storm Angus is suspected to have caused damage to undersea power cables connecting the UK and France, slashing electricity flows through the link by half until the end of February next year.

Citing a statement from the National Grid, The Telegraph said a fault developed on the Interconnexion France-Angleterre (IFA) link between Folkestone and Calais on 20 November.

Four of the eight cables of the link have been severed, possibly by a ship dropping anchor during the storm.

It comes at a time when Britain's capacity margin is already tight and raises fears of a power crunch during the winter.

Storm Angus battered the south coast of England last week, causing widespread flooding and disruption.

The IFA link allows Britain to import up to 2 gigawatts of power from the continent, but damage to the interconnector cables has diminished its maximum capacity to 1 gigawatt until the end of February 2017.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/power-crisis-l ... es-1594122

Of course, the impact of this is mixed, as France doesn't have much spare power to send us right now, and has been importing from us quite a bit. But nonetheless, the reduction in flexibility won't be a good thing and could result in more gas being burned in CCGTs.

Post by **clv101** » 30 Nov 2016, 20:29

snow hope wrote:Imagine if we got an extremely cold winter like we had in December 2010! I recorded -12c at midday on the 22nd Dec 2010. It was an extreme month, but they can still happen if the synoptics are right.

An extreme winter like 1962/63 can still happen - the impact of such a winter would be very serious for today's Britain. I wonder how the impact would vary today compared to then though? How many excess deaths? How many work days lost?

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 30 Nov 2016, 23:09

Winter is a time for beings, human or otherwise, to die. There shouldn't be wringing of hands and wailing because of deaths in winter, it's what nature does. If hadn't been for the persistent interfering in such matters by well meaning humans, we would be facing a much smaller problem nowadays.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 01 Dec 2016, 00:55

clv101 wrote:
snow hope wrote:Imagine if we got an extremely cold winter like we had in December 2010! I recorded -12c at midday on the 22nd Dec 2010. It was an extreme month, but they can still happen if the synoptics are right.
An extreme winter like 1962/63 can still happen - the impact of such a winter would be very serious for today's Britain. I wonder how the impact would vary today compared to then though? How many excess deaths? How many work days lost?

We live in a very different world now than we did in the early 60's. Back then people knew to prepare for hard times in the winter. Country folk were used to being cut off. People walked much more back then. Traffic was nowhere near the level we have now. No computers, much lower expectations and the concept of entitlement hadn't materialised!

Today, everything is Just In Time - the supply chain is massive and has many links which can break - it is seriously vulnerable. Everything now depends on computer systems which depend on the internet, which depend on computers, which depend on networks, which all depend on electricity. The more complex and sophisticated we have made our world, the more likely it is to cock-up - which leaves us stranded. And I haven't even mentioned health and safety which constrains lots of remedial actions.

I would suggest that the death toll would be no greater, but the work days lost would be significantly higher. For instance, our trains can't run due to a catalogue of issues - leaves, rain, wind, ice, snow, etc. You know the story...

The above is just a flavour of the differences - you could write a book on it!

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 01 Dec 2016, 04:40

snow hope wrote:
Today, everything is Just In Time - the supply chain is massive and has many links which can break - it is seriously vulnerable.

I don't know as it is a vulnerable as many people think. Think about it. Everything you need is one to two days away from you and the means to deliver it on time is in place. And not every supply you need is on the same supply train. Everybody involved needs to deliver to get paid. They will find a way. Our older warehouse systems evolved from agricultural barns that were filled once a year at harvest time and fed out over the year as needed. Dockside warehouses followed the same pattern with ships delivering on occasion and their cargoes being fed out as needed in a way that did not create boom and bust cycles and maximized the profits of the shippers and warehouse owners. If your ship sinks your out of luck for a year as is the farmer if his crops fail for two years in a row. With just in time deliveries most disruptions will last days not months or years.
Granted if the input side of the supply chain fails totally it will not matter which method of delivering it to the consumer is used. Zero in equals zero out.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 01 Dec 2016, 17:23

It's not so much whether just in time (JIT) makes any or no difference, but 50 years ago people were more self reliant. They would grow vegeables, the excess of the right products they would bottle, or salt or dry. They would have enough of other foods to get them by. Many country people would keep pigs, chickens or both.

Now there is little of that, people treat most supplies as something that camn be imported to their home, at will. If the system breaks, most people have no backup.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 02 Dec 2016, 04:21

Most houses at that time had a chimney and their own store of fuel. Most houses built since then have no chimney and if they are lucky they will have an electric heater as well as gas central heating. But if the electricity goes off they have nothing, in many cases not even a gas cooker as they have an interlock to the electricity supply.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 02 Dec 2016, 09:11

kenneal - lagger wrote:Most houses at that time had a chimney and their own store of fuel. Most houses built since then have no chimney and if they are lucky they will have an electric heater as well as gas central heating. But if the electricity goes off they have nothing, in many cases not even a gas cooker as they have an interlock to the electricity supply.

You stove top gas burners can't be lighted with a match? The oven and broiler on American gas ranges do have thermocouple valves but the top burners do not.