Gas alert as demand and prices rise

[mikepepler]

Yes, I noticed OCGT had been running quite a bit in the past week or two. This was also true back in winter 2011/2012, so perhaps too early to draw much of a conclusion from that, but the recent spike certainly did coincide with the switch of the French interconnector from UK imports to UK exports.

[kenneal - lagger]

Didcot was running on Friday. It was particularly noticeable because the sky was clear apart from a long plume of steam originating at the power station.

[mikepepler]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/france-po ... KL8N1DG2F5

EDF will not be able to restart seven nuclear reactors undergoing safety checks for at least another 45 days, France's nuclear watchdog ASN said on Tuesday, suggesting a potential setback in EDF's plans to restart the reactors by the year-end.

[adam2]

In the very near term of the next week or two, I see no problem.
Heating demand is reduced by mild weather, and some prolonged windy spells have reduced the gas burnt for electricity production.
An LNG cargo has just arrived.

December looks more interesting with colder and calmer weather expected to drive up demand both here and in France.

[clv101]

Both the super-cold winters of 1946-47 and 1962-63 came about as result of persistent high pressure systems to the north east, blocking Atlantic depressions and bringing cold air from the north and east. There's no indication we're in for a repeat - but I think it's worth remembering what can happen and what the impacts might be.

There is some skill in seasonal forecasting (1-3 months) in the UK (but other areas are a lot easier!). Here's the latest temperature season output from Met Office. Suggests weaken westerly flow and blocking of Atlantic depressions...
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/co ... ndj-v2.pdf

[fuzzy]

And the winter of 62-63 came after the detonationation of Czar Bomba [~50 M tons] above the arctic.

[mikepepler]

Significant drop in gas supply through the St Fergus terminal this morning, visible here on 24 hour view at the time of posting:
http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/Industr ... ne-graphs/

Will be interesting to see where the gap is filled from...

[mikepepler]

Ah, National Grid now has a note on Prevailing View saying "Please be aware that due to ongoing compressor issues at St Fergus..."
http://marketinformation.natgrid.co.uk/ ... gView.aspx

So far the flow from LNG and medium range storage has been stepped up, but this isn't the kind of breakdown we need on top of Rough and the French nuclear problems. Hopefully they'll get it fixed quickly, but every time this happens it eats into stored gas a bit more...

[mikepepler]

Back to normal now at St Fergus, so the net effect is a chunk of gas taken out of storage that would have stayed there otherwise. I wonder which part of our creaking infrastructure will be next to develop a fault?

[mikepepler]

In the MSM now, with another interesting snippet at the end here (my emphasis):

Supplies from the UK continental shelf dropped sharply in the early morning, with flows from NSMP St Fergus down around 20 million cubic metres (mcm) per day and from St Fergus Mobil by around 10 mcm.

A sharper-than-expected 12 mcm decline in Norwegian imports through the Vesterled pipeline contributed to the lower NSMP St Fergus flows.

Imports through the Langeled link form Norway also briefly fell by around 9 mcm.

Planned maintenance at NSMP's St Fergus will meanwhile cut output from Nov. 20 for 28 days by 12 mcm, squeezing supply.

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOil ... FL8N1DJ2CY

[fuzzy]

Golly, can we last 28 days without 12 million cubic m/day?

1 torpedo takes out a Qatar LNG ship and it's game over for the domestic UK until June 2017!

[mikepepler]

Throw in some chilly weather and continued elec exports to France from our CCGTs, and missing 12mcm is not good...

[adam2]

I see no near term problem, unless of course something else breaks, or some geo political event occurs that interrupts or reduces gas imports by tanker or pipeline.

A LNG cargo has just arrived and taken total LNG to just over 10,000. At the minimum withdrawal rate of say 1000 a week, that will last until the new year.
At the maximum likely withdrawal rate, it will last several weeks.

Our admittedly very minimal storage is full.

It does however look as though our limited stocks may be needed in order to satisfy a moderately higher than normal demand, leaving little in reserve for any exceptional event.

[fuzzy]

It makes a mockery of Thatcher piling up coal stocks at every power stations so the miners could not affect electricity supply. Now we have a knife edge supply from Russia, French/Spanish/German owned infrastucture, and the ISIS funding international uber-capitalist ME countries.

[adam2]

It makes a mockery of Thatcher piling up coal stocks at every power stations so the miners could not affect electricity supply. Now we have a knife edge supply from Russia, French/Spanish/German owned infrastucture, and the ISIS funding international uber-capitalist ME countries.

YES, coal though a polluting fuel did have the merits of being largely produced within our own country, and of being easy to stockpile against exceptional demand or industrial disputes.

We are now very reliant on natural gas much of which is imported, and with only limited stocks to cover any interruption to these imports.

IF nothing major breaks
IF no new wars, coup,s or revolts occur in gas producing countries or transit routes.
IF terrorists refrain from attacking gas infrastructure
If no one else outbids us for gas supplies

Then we should muddle through, too many "IF"s though for my liking !