Gas supplies for the coming winter continue to be a cause for concern.
The "prevailing view" website is often out of date or has missing data, but I suspect cock up rather than conspiracy.
After all they did have a software "upgrade" a few weeks ago !
The current position is.
Short term storage is empty. Bit surprised that it is not being filled, perhaps to be no longer used ?
Medium range storage, varies daily but averages just under 13,000 which is nearly full.
Long range storage, virtually unchanged at 13,715. There appears to have a minute withdrawal of just 7, perhaps for some test or investigation or for "pigging"
Note that the long range storage probably wont be available, and that if it does become accessible the withdrawal rate will be very low.
LNG imported stocks, varies daily but seems to average about 9000.
If all goes well, we should muddle through, if however all does NOT go well then we are vulnerable to any interruption to imports.
All figures in GWH.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
As an aside a friends son was in St Petersburg recently and visited a gas pipeline. He asked them how quickly they could turn off the gas to Western Europe - 10 minutes apparently!
Long range storage------unaltered at 13,715
Medium range storage--slight increase to about 14,000
Short range storage-----empty, presumably not to be used
LNG storage-------------varies but averages around 7,000, slightly less than previously.
Of more note is the price, as predicted by Ralph, prices have increased substantially, and today stand at more than 50% higher than in the summer.
The markets may also be pricing in the traditional Russian threat to cut off the gas. The risks are arguably greater due to the Syrian situation.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Which also is one explanation for why th UK is not being more overtly hostile to Russian actions in Syria. The fact that we don't have a clue what to do there is probably a bigger factor.
Now that I work for a PV wholesaler. I think I should buy a big battery backup and inverter at cheap rates before the falling pound pushes prices up again.
Medium range storage about 14,000
Long range unaltered, probably can not be used.
Short range storage, empty, presumably no longer used
LNG, about 7,000
Weather forecast for the coming winter is for colder than average, according to the Met office and reported on BBC news.
Gas burnt for electricity production is likely to increase as compared to last winter, due to the closure of significant coal burning capacity.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
This is starting to look a bit worrying.
UK gas demand for electricity generation is increased by the closure of coal burning capacity.
Demand will now be further increased by the reduction in electricity imports from France.
French gas demand for electricity production is at an all time record.
Any lack of other generating capacity will increase use of OCGT plant which is of low efficiency and therefore consumes gas at an alarming rate.
BTW, French nuclear output has been fairly steady at about 40GW for months, it has not suddenly dropped. But at this time of year, French nuclear output SHOULD be increasing to at least 50GW in response to the colder weather and increased heating demand. This has not happened.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
There's certainly an increasing likelihood of a combination of events leading to blackouts... Whether the likelihood has increased from 0.1% to 1% or 1% to 10% or 50% is hard to say!!
For example, if the UK had a winter similar to 1946-47 or 1962-63 - There'd certainly be blackouts!
The increase in gas burnt for electricity generation is certainly significant, It looks as though over 20GW from CCGT is the new normal almost every weekday, and not for a brief peak but for 12 or 14 hours a day.
OCGT plant was also run every weekday evening last week which is unusual to say the least.
Use of OCGT plant can sometimes be justified even when other capacity is available, but regular use, sometimes for a couple of hours is a bit concerning.
It must be about time for Russia to make the traditional threats regarding cutting off gas supplies.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
