USA presidential elections 2016

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 27 Oct 2016, 21:55

The establishment got rid of Sanders. They are now reaping what they have sown.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 28 Oct 2016, 10:05

Little John wrote:
woodburner wrote:A vengeful culture may be related to poverty, but it is not necessarily so as illustrated by many peoples around the world who's existence is mainly one of poverty. Despite this they are not vengeful in the main. There may be some in those populations who are, but no more so than richer groups. Look at trump, a greedy bully (a very nasty being if you happen to be in the way of his getting what he thinks is another money making scheme moving), but a tad away from living in poverty I think.
In terms of those populations where poverty exists but where there is less of a vengeful culture, this is true to some extent and I would not discount a certain degree of variation based on culture alone. But, on this I would add the following qualifications. Firstly, if the "poverty" is merely defined as lack of modern technology, then I might question the definition. For me, poverty is a lack of technology where it is needed to maintain security of life. So, if a population lacks a well, but has easy access to a clean river two miles away, this is technologically inconvenient. But, they are in no more poverty than a population with a well. Indeed, if the population with the well is relying on a technology (in terms of the maintenance of that well) that they otherwise have little access to or understanding of, they are arguably in a greater state of poverty than the population that requires only that they take themselves to the river to drink and wash.

Which leads me onto the other issue about poverty. Namely that of stability. A population that is, by any metric, living under conditions of poverty, but whose poverty is stable; that is to say, notwithstanding the privations it imposes, life is predictable and therefore navigable, will tend to have a stable culture and one, I would argue, that will also tend to be relatively free of the kind of destructive vengeful cultural practices mentioned earlier. In other words, vengefulness, as with any other destructive cultural practice, is born of extreme stress of one form or another and there is no greater stress than unpredictable poverty.

As for the vengefulness one might find in very rich sub-populations, this is born of another phenomenon entirely, I would argue. Such sub-populations tend to have a very high proportion of congenital psychopaths amongst them and this provides a purely genetic driver of destructive behaviors like vengefulness all by itself.

The bottom line is that I do not intend to argue categorically that cultural practices such as vengefulness cannot ever exist independently of economic factors and certainly not in the short term. What I am arguing, however, is that economic uncertainty coupled with poverty is very often the driver in the medium term and, in the long term, is always the driver.

Yes and I think most (but by no means all) on this forum know this instinctively, even if they can't express themselves as eloquently, LJ.

Re-restating - sorry - in (my) simplistic terms, one becomes used to what little one has; even happy. It's when that changes for the worse that problems arise.

Plus, you know, equality. If everyone were equally poor, there'd still be some that wanted other peoples' stuff but in the main there would be far more contentedness.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 28 Oct 2016, 20:34

Now this has got a lot more exciting!

Bad news for Clinton as FBI reopen her email investigation - this is a remarkable step to take 10 days before the election!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37805525

Snail · Post by **Snail** » 28 Oct 2016, 22:05

Just seen this on the news. I think trump must be considered favourite now. Tempted to put money on it (if the odds are decent).

Its funny that the news are now saying its a tight race. Couple days ago, Hillary was supposedly way out on front.

I've been finding Hillary's campaign (the bits I've seen of it) almost vomit-inducing.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Oct 2016, 22:16

I don't believe she was ever way out in front. The Yank presidential polls are as big a pile of bullshit as the EU referendum polls were here.

I'll tell you something I have noticed over the last several days. Up till around this morning. if you did a search on the latest US presidential election polls, at the very top of the Google searches would come the hit "Hilary Clinton in massive lead" etc etc. However, over the last day or two, certain polls have started showing Trump pulling back to level pegging (assuming he was ever as far behind as many of the polls have been suggesting). Today, when I search in Google using precisely the same search term, there are no current polls coming up anywhere on the first search page. In other words, you have to make quite a bit more effort to find them. Google is clearly manipulating the "news"

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 29 Oct 2016, 02:16

Google is clearly manipulating the "news"

No surprise there.
Some have pointed out that there has to be something big in this new finding that can't be sat on until after the election without destroying the FBI's credibility. I agree with that but wonder just what it is. Perhaps copies of classified documents that are now three computers away from where they should be or a conversation between Hillary and Huma about how and what to delete clearly showing that Hillary knew what she was doing was illegal.
It certainly isn't conversations about Yoga classes or wedding arraignments.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 29 Oct 2016, 05:35

Agree Little John, my own view is that Trump has managed to get this election to a virtual tie after being a bit behind in the polls.

Of course, this latest FBI news will give him momentum going into the last 10 days.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article57000.html

I did enjoy Nadeem's video showing Trump as the Terminator. Nadeem has forecast that the most likely outcome is a Trump victory.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 29 Oct 2016, 06:56

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/d ... ers-230411

Those battleground state polls that paint such a grim picture of Donald Trump's prospects against Hillary Clinton? Most Republican insiders don't believe they're accurately capturing Trump’s true level of support.

That’s according to the POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 key battleground states. More than seven-in-10 GOP insiders, 71 percent, say the polls understate Trump’s support because voters don’t want to admit to pollsters that they are backing the controversial Republican nominee

Agree that the shy Trump voters issue is definitely real.

I have written about it my latest piece on the US elections;

https://forecastingintelligence.org/201 ... ll-it-off/

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 29 Oct 2016, 09:01

Lord Beria3 wrote:Agree that the shy Trump voters issue is definitely real.

I think you are probably right about this. There may also be shy Clinton voters, but Trump is more embarrassing and therefore people are more likely to be shy to admit support.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 29 Oct 2016, 13:33

My take on the FBI October surprise...

1) it was clearly triggered by the discovery of new emails during the investigation into the sexting by Weiner and massive internal pressure by FBI investigators have succeeded in reopening the case, 11 days before the election.

2) As WSWS points out, the United States is in a profound political crisis. Broad layers of the American public consider Hilary Clinton a crook and will not accept her as an legitimate president. Trump supporters have openly talked of occupying Washington and unleashing massive civil unrest should they consider the election "rigged" or stolen by a victorious Clinton.

The key factor is that Trump supporters are generally heavily armed, unlike Democrats and enjoy the massive support of the ranks of the police and the lower levels of the internal security apparatus (Homeland Security units, National Guard as well as ordinary solders who will vote for Trump).

My take is that influential factions within the military-intelligence establishment have concluded, after behind-the-scenes war-gaming of post-election unrest, that there is a very real risk of massive instability should Clinton won. These same forces have concluded that they can't rely on the police and solders to suppress an armed uprising by supporters of Donald Trump.

To conclude, these same forces have decided that ensuring that Trump wins is the lesser evil and have decided to throw their weight behind the Trump campaign by sinking Clinton.

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/10 ... s-o29.html

It is at this point impossible to determine with precision the motivation behind Comey’s letter and the political forces for which he is speaking. However, his attempt to present the letter as a politically disinterested response to the discovery of new information lacks any credibility.
This direct intervention into the election by the top police-intelligence agency can only be an expression of deep crisis and profound tensions within the American ruling class and the state. The election as a whole has been dominated by the growth of social anger and antiestablishment sentiment, yet it has ended in a contest between two right-wing representatives of the richest 1 percent who are despised by huge sections of the electorate.

It has plumbed the depths of political debasement on the part of both candidates—the fascistic billionaire Trump seeking to channel discontent along the most right-wing, chauvinist and racist channels; the multimillionaire Clinton relying on sex scandals and a McCarthyite attack on Trump as an agent of Russian President Vladimir Putin to bury incriminating revelations of corruption and lying and to swing public opinion behind a policy of military escalation and confrontation with nuclear-armed Russia.

The entire process has been surrounded by an aura of violence and a breakdown of public confidence in the political system. It has unfolded under conditions of deepening economic crisis, mounting international tensions and worsening crises for US imperialism around the world, i.e., the ongoing debacle of Washington’s war for regime change in Syria, the signs of disarray in the anti-Chinese “pivot to Asia,” the emergence of open conflicts with imperialist “allies” in Europe, particularly Germany.
The convergence of these crises is generating bitter conflicts within the American ruling class over policy questions, magnified by fears of a rising tide of social opposition at home.

Whether the intention of Comey’s letter was to inflict fatal damage to Clinton’s candidacy, shore up endangered Republican majorities in the Senate and House, or fire a shot across the bow against an incoming Clinton administration, it makes clear that the next administration will be mired in crisis from the day it takes office.

One former Justice Department official suggested that Comey was under intense pressure from within the FBI over his previous declaration that no competent prosecutor would bring charges against Clinton over her use of the private server. If true, this means that sections of the federal police agency are in open revolt against the candidate who may shortly become their nominal “commander-in-chief.”

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 29 Oct 2016, 14:22

To me it appears to be more like incompetence on the part of the FBI rather than a plot.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 29 Oct 2016, 18:23

Lord Beria3 wrote:My take on the FBI October surprise...

2) As WSWS points out, the United States is in a profound political crisis. Broad layers of the American public consider Hilary Clinton a crook and will not accept her as an legitimate president. Trump supporters have openly talked of occupying Washington and unleashing massive civil unrest should they consider the election "rigged" or stolen by a victorious Clinton.

Your beloved WSWS is far from a respected unbiased source. I know of no group that has signed on to the above. Many will certainly consider her illegitimate if she wins but investigations and impeachment are the preferred remedies. Riots are used by the residents of ghettos. Trump supporters are smart enough to not burn down their own housing.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 29 Oct 2016, 19:02

We are not talking "riots" when it comes to a certain section of Trump supporters V. We are, quite possibly talking "armed insurrection" and other guerrilla tactics. Indeed, the fact they are [currently] Trump supporters is secondary. There is a section of the American citizenry whose anger has been always there sufficient to be motivated to mount such an insurrection. But, whose confidence in doing so has been significantly increased due to their ranks now being swelled by a vast swathe of the proletariat.

Change is coming, not just to the US, but across the Western world. It could, in principle go either way; Left or Right. It could, in principle, be via the ballot box. However, in practice, the ballot box is been denied, via a variety of means. Futhermore, in America, a ballot-box Left alternative to BAU has been thwarted. So, a last ditch attempt by the far Right at the ballot box is happening with the Trump candidacy. If that too is thwarted, then change will come about by other means.

National Socialism or National Facism. Either way, nationalism is back out of the box and it will not be put back in.

Spenglar was right.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 29 Oct 2016, 20:01

There would only be armed insurrection in the USA if the government tried to take the arms away from the citizenry.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 30 Oct 2016, 09:03

If Trump wins there probably will be riots in several inner cities and if Hillary wins there will be yet another surge in gun sales and a shortage of ammo.
If I was feeling under gunned I'd go down to the gun shop this week and pick up anything I wanted before the prices get jacked up. I just bought the missis a new living room set so am feeling weak in the check book so will just wait it out with the few I have. Can't shoot more then one at a time anyways.