USA presidential elections 2016

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 14 Sep 2016, 16:10

Media presenters and commentators generally rely on things called "fact cards" prepared by researchers. They are highly paid to read these out in an authoritative sounding and convincing manner.

Researchers are more studious and retiring types. They generally have "trusted sources" from whence they glean their facts. I have never heard a satisfactory explanation or the philosophical basis as to how researchers and their trusted sources distinguish fact from fiction.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 14 Sep 2016, 16:33

Potemkin Villager wrote: I have never heard a satisfactory explanation or the philosophical basis as to how researchers and their trusted sources distinguish fact from fiction.

The researchers rely on particular sources. Sources such as the government are supposed to be honest. The way they mislead people tends to be on assumptions, but they do try to be honest or at least not obviously dishonest.

Researchers get used to how is more reliable and who is less reliable. Much media reports come from other media reports.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 14 Sep 2016, 21:53

Markets starting to rethink their base line assumption of a Clinton landslide.

With the polls showing a narrow Clinton lead that strikes me as long overdue.

A Trump presidency is a very real possibility.

The debates will be key. If Trump performs well, than his momentum will accelerate, with the fallout from Hilary's health issues still on-going and he will go on to win.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 14 Sep 2016, 22:01

I suppose if you want/expect to see:

Lord Beria3 wrote:a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction

That is a thesis you are likely to support.

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 14 Sep 2016, 23:11

Zero Hedge: Trump Soars in Latest Polls: Has 5 Points Lead in Ohio

In other words, in the race between the two most unpopular candidates in US presidential history, Hillary suddenly finds herself on the back foot. Indeed, Trump's strength in Ohio, a state critical to his path to the White House, comes even as seven in 10 say they view one of his signature campaign pledges, to build a wall along the southern U.S. border funded by Mexico, as unrealistic.

The survey shows a strong majority of likely Ohio voters, 57 percent, are skeptical of trade deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement that was backed by Bill Clinton when he was president and that Trump has used to his political advantage. One in five say such deals help increase exports and employment, and 23 percent aren’t sure. More than four in 10 Clinton supporters see NAFTA as a bad deal, compared to seven in 10 Trump loyalists

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 15 Sep 2016, 19:50

johnhemming2 wrote:I suppose if you want/expect to see:

Lord Beria3 wrote:a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
That is a thesis you are likely to support.

I have explained before why I think that Donald Trump, flawed candidate as he is, is the best alternative to the possibility of widespread violence and civil unrest in the States.

Trump is an opportunistic populist but not a extremist. Like Greer, I think that if Clinton gets elected you could see a urban insurgency start within the States within 10 years if the ordinary people, the "left behind", feel that they have no way to change things via the ballot box.

I don't want warfare, violence and destruction but they are a fact of life throughout most of our history. I certainly hope we can avoid such a fate in the future but I'm am not massively optimistic tbh.

What I do know for certain is that status quo/BAU politics, which Clinton represents, is ruining the world. And yes, it will drive the USA and the rest of the world to total disaster.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 15 Sep 2016, 20:20

John,

Suggest you read this article:

http://atimes.com/2016/09/deplorables-o ... rld-unite/

It might make you understand why so many people are planning to vote for Trump in the States. Ditto Brexit in the UK and maybe Le Pen in France next year.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 15 Sep 2016, 20:41

I do understand people's motivations, but it remains that I don't think an approach which is to smash it all up will actually do any good for the people inclined to support him.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 15 Sep 2016, 20:49

johnhemming2 wrote:I do understand people's motivations, but it remains that I don't think an approach which is to smash it all up will actually do any good for the people inclined to support him.

It didn;t have to be smashed up. The establishment could have chosen to allow Sanders to come through. They did not and now they will get what they have allowed through. The same goes this side of the Atlantic. Either Corbyn and what he represents will be allowed through or, If he is not, then we will get UKIP and worse.

Change IS coming.

Get used to it.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 15 Sep 2016, 20:57

Allowed through is not the issue. I think their proposals are dangerous for lots of people particularly for the poorer members of society.

Sadly I do see things moving to the extremes. That does not necessarily mean that change is coming, but it does probably mean the trend towards greater violence will continue.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 15 Sep 2016, 22:30

johnhemming2 wrote:I do understand people's motivations.

Nothing you have posted on this forum suggests that this is true, and much of what you post suggests it is not true.

Well, for starters, the degradation of the middle and working classes. While wealth (defined as income-producing assets) becomes ever-more concentrated in the symbolic top one percent, with some of the fruits thereof passed down to their servitors in the “ten percent”: lawyers, accountants, managers, technicians, politicians and so on, the rest of society is stagnant or declining.

You, Mr Hemming, are firmly in this category of "ten percent". You do the bidding of the 1%. In your case, it takes the form of peddling insidious propaganda that is intended to mislead people and to obscure any truths that harm the interests of the 1%. You are a lackey of the 1%, posing as an independent intellectual.

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 16 Sep 2016, 05:30

johnhemming2 wrote:What amount of firepower is it reasonable for a community to allow individuals to have and which individuals should be prevented from lawfully having any fire power.

That just shows exactly why the typical Brit doesn't get it. The question is non-sensical. I get it. But then I live here and have gone Native.

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 16 Sep 2016, 05:33

Lord Beria3 wrote:The CNN poll may be a outlier, but it is part of a broader trend of Trump recovering in the polls.

What the leftist media aren't getting with their insistence in trying to label Trump supporters as "deplorables" as Hillary put it, is that many of them are the very groups that Hillary claims Trump supporters hate. Trump will take a large minority of Latino and African American votes. In the red states it will be a landslide. The further Trump looks like he will win states like Ohio, however, will give an indication if he will win.

From what I can see and here over here I think it's about 60/40 in favour of Trump.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 18 Sep 2016, 08:54

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... r-politics

Good review of the downside of the internet - it magnifies the impact of propaganda and drowns out reasoned debate to the level of the sheep in Animal Farm, and has reduced confidence in the electoral system to the point of destroying democratic consent.

We are in the age of post truth politics and it bodes ill for all of us.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 18 Sep 2016, 09:14

Terrorist attack in the States.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... says-mayor

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... -stabbings