That's headline figure labels itself as a polling average. Always a favorite to use by a side that thinks it may be losing ground. Nonetheless, I am aware there is slight movement in the other direction as well (see post below). The point still being that Trump has clearly regained ground since the early summer.
I wasn't linking to the headline figure - but rather all the individual polls immediately under the figure, the data clearly show you 'latest poll' was no longer the latest and was an outlier.
My point was that you paid unwarranted attention you an isolated data point, cherrypicking.
That's headline figure labels itself as a polling average. Always a favorite to use by a side that thinks it may be losing ground. Nonetheless, I am aware there is slight movement in the other direction as well (see post below). The point still being that Trump has clearly regained ground since the early summer.
I wasn't linking to the headline figure - but rather all the individual polls immediately under the figure, the data clearly show you 'latest poll' was no longer the latest and was an outlier.
My point was that you paid unwarranted attention you an isolated data point, cherry picking.
No it's not cherry picking. Or, rather, it's no more cherry picking than picking one which was carried out a day or two later. The polls could, of course move significantly in either direction over the remainder of the campaign. However, the chorus of propaganda over the summer that Trump was miles behind Clinton with little prospect of ever catching up are shown to be what they were by the poll I have cited which shows Trump in the lead by a point or two and which was carried out just days ago. Namely, propaganda.There are other polls since with put Clinton a point or two ahead instead. What happens next is clearly, unpredictable. But, what is also clear is that the narrative that Trump's electoral support was on an inexorable slide is erroneous.
The CNN poll may be a outlier, but it is part of a broader trend of Trump recovering in the polls.
I suspect that the poll of polls will show Clinton narrowly ahead of Trump into the 1st presidential debate later on this month.
If, and it is a big if, Trump out-performs expectations during that debate, I expect the polls to show a bounce, similar to the Republican convention, with Trump heading to a narrow lead over Clinton.
I think that this hides the depth of his support. Shy Trump voters who don't want to admit on the phone that they plan to vote for him plus folks who aren't been asked because they aren't considered likely voters are factors as well.
We saw a similar theme in the Brexit referendum. The polling agencies made turnout assumptions that were wrong. Working class folks voted who never voted before across England.
I suspect you will see something similar on 8 November 2016.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
It is obviously always possible he will win. He will then make a big mess of things and cause a load of stress. It is all well and good to be unhappy with the way things are, but it is best to look for practical and better alternatives rather than just smash all the windows.
johnhemming2 wrote:It is obviously always possible he will win. He will then make a big mess of things and cause a load of stress. It is all well and good to be unhappy with the way things are, but it is best to look for practical and better alternatives rather than just smash all the windows.
Only if one lives in the nice house with the windows.
If, on the other hand, one is on the outside looking in then one has nothing left to lose by smashing them. Now, of course, the people on the inside are never going to understand this until they find a brick in their lap and someone like Trump is that brick. But, if the people on the inside manage, one way or another, to stop him, they will find it is a bomb in their lap the next time around.
Change is coming; not just in America but across the world and it will not be stopped. The only question that now remains is how violent that change will be in the making and what final form it takes.
Last edited by Little John on 09 Sep 2016, 10:29, edited 1 time in total.
Little John wrote:Only if one lives in the nice house with the windows.
This goes back to the argument as to how awful life really is. I accept the point that there is in one sense greater insecurity. However, at the the same time there is considerable government support for the low paid and those who are not working (of working age) as well as those who are retired.
There are a small number actually sleeping on the streets. However. the idea that everything should be smashed up is not rational. There is, however, a lot of anger causing irrationality and the support of irrational politicians.
My neighbour is a man who is a low-skilled labourer who is out of work in an area of high unemployment. He has been forced onto a shitty zero hours contract by the Universal Credit agency. Which means he has an active benefit claim that he must use whenever his work is insufficient. Not only is the first week of a claim "not applicable", claimants now have to wait a further four weeks following that first week before they receive any money. On top of that, my neighbour consistently finds what money he is due never arrives on the due date. His only recourse is to telephone a national number that is provided. This costs 45 pence per minute. When he calls up he is usually in a queue for around 15 minutes So, around twenty minutes in total. Typically, he will have to phone them up two or three days on the trot before they finally put his money in. This will cost him tends of pounds in telephone calls.
He is in just such a position right now and I am currently keeping him and his family fed till his money comes in. He is a decent, honest, hard working man and he is at breaking point. I bet him and his family's circumstances are being mirrored all across this land.
You do not a have a f***ing clue what you are talking about John Hemming
Little John wrote:My neighbour is a man who is a low-skilled labourer who is out of work in an area of high unemployment. He has been forced onto a shitty zero hours contract by the Universal Credit agency. Which means he has an active benefit claim that he must use whenever his work is insufficient. Not only is the first week of a claim "not applicable", claimants now have to wait a further four weeks following that first week before they receive any money. On top of that, my neighbour consistently finds what money he is due never arrives on the due date. His only recourse is to telephone a national number that is provided. This costs 45 pence per minute. When he calls up he is usually in a queue for around 15 minutes So, around twenty minutes in total. Typically, he will have to phone them up two or three days on the trot before they finally put his money in. This will cost him tends of pounds in telephone calls.
He is in just such a position right now and I am currently keeping him and his family fed till his money comes in. He is a decent, honest, hard working man and he is at breaking point. I bet him and his family's circumstances are being mirrored all across this land.
You do not a have a ******* clue what you are talking about John Hemming
I genuinely believe that it's an unwritten tory policy to allow or even force poor "unproductive" people to either starve to death or commit suicide because of the stress.
Little John wrote:You do not a have a ******* clue what you are talking about John Hemming
I have done a lot of casework in dealing with how the benefits system works over a period of 26 years. I do know of cases where people have had problems and I accept the argument that zero hours contracts have been abused by employers. However, I suggest you compare how things work here to other countries in the world.
Universal Credit helpline
Telephone: 0345 600 0723
Textphone: 0345 600 0743
Monday to Friday, 8am to 6pm
Calls to this number can cost up to 9p a minute from a landline, or between 8p and 40p a minute from a mobile (your phone supplier can tell you how much you’ll pay) - you can call and ask them to call you back.
They no longer call back. They stopped that recently. Plus the 45p rate was also recently reintroduced. Plus they lie/are incompetent and so people are given false information about when they are due to receive their money, thus causing it to be impossible for them to budget. Not to mention the impossibility of budgeting when one is spending a significant portion of one's payment on phone calls.
Little John wrote:Only if one lives in the nice house with the windows.
This goes back to the argument as to how awful life really is. I accept the point that there is in one sense greater insecurity. However, at the the same time there is considerable government support for the low paid and those who are not working (of working age) as well as those who are retired.
There are a small number actually sleeping on the streets. However. the idea that everything should be smashed up is not rational. There is, however, a lot of anger causing irrationality and the support of irrational politicians.
John, the really scary thing is you are an observant politician, prepared to interact, but you cannot see what has been lost over about 40 years that I know - maybe ~60 years is a closer guess. It is a shame that you represent Birmingham, which always survives quite well like London.
Anyone of average ability/commitment in most other UK regions, needs great luck or nepotism to land a job that has any good long term prospects. A job today typically will involve trying to persuade others - to buy shit they don't need, to pay more, to trick them with false information or to sell them something from china.
Before the neocon financial adventure, a job centre anywhere had vacancies. Claimants weren't obliged to hustle applications to qualify for benefits, so employers only got interested applicants. Now there are few real vacancies advertised in the jobcentre system except in labour shortage regions, because genuine employers don't want 1000 unsuitable applicants who are obliged to apply in thatcherworld. So now the only way into employment is agency parasites.
Little John wrote:They no longer call back. They stopped that recently. Plus the 45p rate was also recently reintroduced. Plus they lie/are incompetent and so people are given false information about when they are due to receive their money, thus causing it to be impossible for them to budget. Not to mention the impossibility of budgeting when one is spending a significant portion of one's payment on phone calls.
I have looked up the DWP website and it states a maximum rate of 45p when calling from specific mobile phones. A minimum rate of 3p.
Obviously making an online application would not cost anything. If you are willing to assist people you can help them do online applications and it costs 0p per hour.
I got the calling back stuff from Citizens Advice. I don't know what the current situation is, but personally I would recommend that people do this online. I have myself made online applications for other people in the past.
Little John wrote:They no longer call back. They stopped that recently. Plus the 45p rate was also recently reintroduced. Plus they lie/are incompetent and so people are given false information about when they are due to receive their money, thus causing it to be impossible for them to budget. Not to mention the impossibility of budgeting when one is spending a significant portion of one's payment on phone calls.
I have looked up the DWP website and it states a maximum rate of 45p when calling from specific mobile phones. A minimum rate of 3p.
Obviously making an online application would not cost anything. If you are willing to assist people you can help them do online applications and it costs 0p per hour.
I got the calling back stuff from Citizens Advice. I don't know what the current situation is, but personally I would recommend that people do this online. I have myself made online applications for other people in the past.
I am not referring to applications. I am referring to enquiries on existing applications. Enquiries about missing payments cannot be made online anymore. It has to be by phone and it has to be by a national number at 45 pence per minute rate between the hours of 8am and 6pm. Whatever the official narrative, this is the reality. Bearing in mind, of course, that many claimants are on pay as you go contracts with mobiles in any event and have no landline because they could not possibly afford to tie themselves to a fixed monthly payment for a phone.
