Is Britain a basket case?

[skeptik]

And who the hell is the man in the middle its always the quiet ones to look out for. Putin also looks like he's not listening and thinking about what is really going to happen

Bush cant speak English and Putin's no great linguist. He qualified as a lawyer before being recruited by the KGB.

The man in the middle is the Murkan-Russian translator. Putin isnt listening to Dubya. He's just politiely waiting for Bush to finish so he can get the Russian version whispered in his ear.

[GD]

And what is wrong with being at "higher up the value chain?" Do we really want the low paid , making cheap plastic crap jobs anyway?

Shop floor jobs are still minimum wage stuff. Even engineering ain't what it used to be.

Surely in terms of "skills", higher end stuff is better?
...
We have our problems, and things will be bad , BUT PLEASE , let us have some CONTEXT FOR GOD SAKE!

The problem is ... what's the next logical step?

Chindia move up in the intellectual property and value added arenas, and we get cut out altogether... ( or PO renders this discusison meaningless )

[Totally_Baffled]

Shop floor jobs are still minimum wage stuff. Even engineering ain't what it used to be.

Not sure what you mean? The guys on the production line at the local ford transit van factory in Southampton earn clucking good money.

Indeed assembly workers at car manafacturers are no way minimum wage (the UK exports 1.6 million cars per year BTW)

Likewise the guys at BAE etc!

The problem is ... what's the next logical step?

Don't know - but even assuming no PO, China/India et al are soon going to reach a glass ceiling in manafacturing growth if US/UK demand hits a spending limit (because we simply cannot borrow anymore money!!)

Also the supression of the Yuan and other asian currencies is unsustainable.

Chindia move up in the intellectual property and value added arenas, and we get cut out altogether... ( or PO renders this discusison meaningless )

I agree on the PO meaningless comment - my point being, I cannot understand the argument that huge manafacturers like China will be any better off post peak just because they "make more stuff".

China and India has to import most of the materials and energy for said manafacturing output. Therefore there current manafacturing capabities are largly irrelevant.

[GD]

Not sure what you mean? The guys on the production line at the local ford transit van factory in Southampton earn clucking good money.

Indeed assembly workers at car manafacturers are no way minimum wage (the UK exports 1.6 million cars per year BTW)

Likewise the guys at BAE etc!

Anectdotals. Does not describe the reality across the sector as a whole. But you may have a point here - the UK has guns and bombs, armoured vehicles, tanks, helicopters, jet planes and ships - and will sell them to any bugger. Invest in the perpetual war portfolio.

I cannot understand the argument that huge manafacturers like China will be any better off post peak just because they "make more stuff".

I certainly never argued for that.

[Erik]

What EXACTLY does Britain have to offer the world?

Surely in a post-PO world, once globalization has been largely reversed, Britain (and other countries) won't and shouldn't be too concerned about what they have to offer the world. They will be mainly occupied with looking after themselves as best as they can with the resources that they have locally.

In the next decades what service or goods will we be able to export or trade for oil and/or gas?

As I think I've mentioned on previous posts, at least the UK has some oil and gas, albeit increasingly less - but it'll be a long time before it runs out entirely. Other countries (obviously I'm thinking about Spain mainly!) already depend 100% on imports for their oil and gas... so we're really f***ed.

[clv101]

As I think I've mentioned on previous posts, at least the UK has some oil and gas, albeit increasingly less - but it'll be a long time before it runs out entirely.

I wouldn't been too optimistic about the UK's North Sea oil and gas. Not only are we looking at pretty rapid depletion taking us down something like 80-90% by 2020 but more seriously the age and generally decrepitness of offshore infrastructure means we won't see a long tail.

[Totally_Baffled]

http://www.eurofound.eu.int/ewco/2006/07/DE0607019I.htm

Anectdotals. Does not describe the reality across the sector as a whole. But you may have a point here - the UK has guns and bombs, armoured vehicles, tanks, helicopters, jet planes and ships - and will sell them to any bugger. Invest in the perpetual war portfolio.

Hourly labour costs
In 2004, the total hourly labour costs in the German private sector extended only slightly above the EU15 average and were lower than in most northern and western EU Member States. This can be attributed to the relatively low level of hourly labour costs in the services sector.

Yet you dont mention , Automotive, Aviation, chemicals, steel, clothing/footwear, food, paper, plastics, drugs , electronics, textiles, and shipbuilding....

German employers paid their employees, on average, ?26.22 per hour worked in manufacturing. In Denmark, Sweden, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, the Netherlands and Finland, total hourly labour costs were higher than in Germany, ranging from ?26.80 to ?30.70 per hour worked. However, labour costs were slightly lower in Austria and the United Kingdom (UK), amounting to ?25.30 and ?24.70 respectively per hour worked.

24.7 Euros / 1.5 = ?16.47 per hour. The minimum wage is ?5.35 per hour.

Indeed , this study showed wages were lower in the service sector at 24.5 euros per hour! (see table in attached study)

[Vortex]

Bush cant speak English and Putin's no great linguist.

Putin can speak fluent German.

That makes two languages .. one more than most Yanks or Brits.

[Totally_Baffled]

As I think I've mentioned on previous posts, at least the UK has some oil and gas, albeit increasingly less - but it'll be a long time before it runs out entirely.

I wouldn't been too optimistic about the UK's North Sea oil and gas. Not only are we looking at pretty rapid depletion taking us down something like 80-90% by 2020 but more seriously the age and generally decrepitness of offshore infrastructure means we won't see a long tail.

I'm sure you are right about this , particulrarly under "normal" conditions.

But in an energy poor world - is there no way that what remains in the NS can be exploited?

In a energy starved world - wont any oil that is EROEI positive be exploited (energy profit = financial profit?)

Just out of interest how much infrastructure is required? Presumably there is a number of fields that could produce small amounts , cant the oil be extracted via a platform and then put on a tanker ? (rather than lots of complex pipeline networks which are required when the volumes are so large?)

[GD]

24.7 Euros / 1.5 = ?16.47 per hour. The minimum wage is ?5.35 per hour.

Indeed , this study showed wages were lower in the service sector at 24.5 euros per hour! (see table in attached study)

TB there's no breakdown to these stats, i.e. are they averaging engineer's / technician's and operator's salaries together? If so I'm not surprised it's so high as, like I said, most of what's left is higher up the chain. Manufacturing is not the employer it used to be:



And even engineering wages ain't what they were. If shop floor isn't minimum wage, then they're a sheet of paper above.

[Totally_Baffled]

TB there's no breakdown to these stats, i.e. are they averaging engineer's / technician's and operator's salaries together? If so I'm not surprised it's so high as, like I said, most of what's left is higher up the chain. Manufacturing is not the employer it used to be:

Its average salary for employees working in manafacturing , there doesn't need to be a breakdown. If the average shop floor worker was earning minimum wage this average would be a lot lower (they would out number the higher end workers in numbers and hence the lowere average)

Yes , I agree what is left is higher up the chain - but that isnt a bad thing - we shouldnt even try and compete on the low end stuff.

And no - it isnt the employer it once was , BUT the point is - the sector is still worth $400 billion (20% of the economy), which is the fifth largest manafacturing output in the world.

Indeed only the top 25 economies have there entire economies that big!!!

Im glad you posted that chart - it clearly shows it is the same for all western economies.

Employment is down , but importantly ouput/productivity is up.

Come to think of it - what are we debating here GD? - I think we may of gone on a wild tangent!!? LOL

[GD]

Seems like re-arranging deckchairs to me

[Totally_Baffled]

Seems like re-arranging deckchairs to me

Which is actually more fun! LOL

[Erik]

As I think I've mentioned on previous posts, at least the UK has some oil and gas, albeit increasingly less - but it'll be a long time before it runs out entirely.

I wouldn't been too optimistic about the UK's North Sea oil and gas. Not only are we looking at pretty rapid depletion taking us down something like 80-90% by 2020 but more seriously the age and generally decrepitness of offshore infrastructure means we won't see a long tail.

Fair enough, but for me it's not really a question of optimism. I think the future's looking fairly bleak everywhere, worldwide, so the UK is going to be in trouble along with everyone else, but at least it will still have some access to a small amount of oil and gas which it can call it's own. This remaining 10-20% of oil and gas in 2020 could still, at a stretch of the imagination, be put to good use, whatever it costs to get the stuff out of the ground (economically and/or energetically speaking). Long tail, short tail, at least the UK will have a tail!

[acrowe]

Interesting talk on the global market place and where things really do 'come from'

http://www.mises.org/multimedia/video/ss06/Shenoy.wmv