Gas alert as demand and prices rise

Post by **adam2** » 23 Jul 2016, 23:20

Although the "storage" pages on the prevailing view website have not been updated for some weeks, it would appear that a "one off" list of storage levels has been published earlier today.

Short range storage, empty
Medium range storage, 11,149 GWH
Long range storage, 13, 722 GWH.

Note that the long range storage is of very limited relevance as no gas can be injected until at least next spring, and considerable doubts exist as to whether withdrawals will be possible.
If withdrawals are possible it is likely that rates will be very limited.

If the data is accurate, then the medium range storage has been partialy refilled.

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 23 Jul 2016, 23:31

Time to stock up on jumpers and blankets for the winter then? (and sources of light)

Post by **adam2** » 23 Jul 2016, 23:43

cubes wrote:Time to stock up on jumpers and blankets for the winter then? (and sources of light)

Yes, we will probably muddle through as usual, but it would be well to prepare just in case our luck runs out.

Post by **clv101** » 24 Jul 2016, 07:31

cubes wrote:Time to stock up on jumpers and blankets for the winter then? (and sources of light)

I would hope/expect PowerSwitch readers were already well stocked for jumpers, blankets and sources of light!

Post by **mikepepler** » 25 Jul 2016, 14:44

adam2 wrote:Although the "storage" pages on the prevailing view website have not been updated for some weeks, it would appear that a "one off" list of storage levels has been published earlier today.

Short range storage, empty
Medium range storage, 11,149 GWH
Long range storage, 13, 722 GWH.

Note that the long range storage is of very limited relevance as no gas can be injected until at least next spring, and considerable doubts exist as to whether withdrawals will be possible.
If withdrawals are possible it is likely that rates will be very limited.

If the data is accurate, then the medium range storage has been partialy refilled.

For comparison, the same figures a year ago today were:
Short range storage, 37 GWh
Medium range storage, 5,540 GWh
Long range storage, 25,053 GWh

The current MRS level is the highest it's been since the data I have began (in 2007) - the nearest was in 2014, when it was at 10,135GWh.

The highest I've seen it was actually 14 Jan 2016, when it was at 14,120 GWh. So it's not far off full now, and presumably will be kept full as long as possible into the winter, but won't really make much of a dent in the gap left by Rough.

This really shows the folly of having most of a country's gas storage in one single site. Other large sites have been given planning permission but have not gone ahead because the economics didn't stack up. Apparently one of the factors was high business rates being charged for the sites, which just seems still for critical national infrastructure...

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 26 Jul 2016, 15:52

clv101 wrote:
cubes wrote:Time to stock up on jumpers and blankets for the winter then? (and sources of light)
I would hope/expect PowerSwitch readers were already well stocked for jumpers, blankets and sources of light!

Yes, sensible precautions in any winter let alone one where there might be gas issues.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 26 Jul 2016, 16:56

We try to keep at least a year's supply of bottled gas in at any one time. I'll have to nail it down more securely though.

Post by **adam2** » 27 Jul 2016, 15:01

It appears that gas storage data is now put daily on the prevailing view website, but in the form of a message rather than graphically.
The message appears each morning but not at any particular time of day.

MRS now at 11,900 GWH which is nearly full, others unchanged.

In the event of a supply shortage this winter, I very much doubt that the domestic gas supply will be cut off, but rota power cuts are possible if the gas to power stations is interrupted.

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 28 Jul 2016, 12:41

Which is as good as turning off people's gas heating (without the issues with pressure etc)

Post by **adam2** » 28 Jul 2016, 13:01

cubes wrote:Which is as good as turning off people's gas heating (without the issues with pressure etc)

Yes, most of US know that all common types of gas central heating also require electricity, but a surprising proportion of the sheeple do NOT know this and may be in for a shock.

A lot of people seem to believe that "they" would not cut off especially deserving customers. In fact it is done by geographical area with no exceptions.
Others have no understanding that the electricity supply is either on as normal or it is cut off. They seem to imagine that someone is controlling each light or appliance.
"they would have to leave the heater on in the babies room"
"they cant turn lifts off"
"they must leave street lights near schools on"

Some people may be in for a shock.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 28 Jul 2016, 13:23

Especially the ones who have recently removed chimney breasts to make more room, and have replaced it with a gas fire

Post by **adam2** » 05 Aug 2016, 20:47

The "prevailing view" website is now more or less working after a software upgrade.

Short range storage empty
Medium range, about 13,300 GWH
Long range, 13,722 GWH as before.

Note that the LRS is probably useless as it cant be used at present.

Gas demand varies continually, but remains in general well above the average or expected figure. Due to increased gas used for electricity production.

In PREVIOUS years many have doubted that our gas storage capacity was adequate, and we are going into THIS winter with probably only about one quarter of that available last year. And increased gas consumption.

Provided that both imports and domestic production continue uninterrupted we should muddle through as usual.
Any significant interruption to supplies could prove "interesting"

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 05 Aug 2016, 21:15

The difference is Milford Haven. Still does not make things easy, however.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 06 Aug 2016, 11:54

woodburner wrote:Especially the ones who have recently removed chimney breasts to make more room, and have replaced it with a gas fire

Gas fires are the answer to electricity cuts. You can light any open flame appliance with a match etc. and it will stay lit.

Post by **adam2** » 06 Aug 2016, 12:03

fuzzy wrote:
woodburner wrote:Especially the ones who have recently removed chimney breasts to make more room, and have replaced it with a gas fire
Gas fires are the answer to electricity cuts. You can light any open flame appliance with a match etc. and it will stay lit.

In general, yes. A minority of modern gas fires DO need electricity to operate, not just for ignition.
Likewise SOME gas hobs need electricity but most do not.

If considering a new gas fire or a new gas hob, I strongly suggest checking with the supplier that it will function without electricity.