UKIP WATCH

AutomaticEarth · Post by **AutomaticEarth** » 10 May 2015, 14:21

Mark,

You raise good points.

80 seats for UKIP may make people choke on their breakfast, but the Greens would have got 24.

Even though I voted Conservative, I think that the first past the post system needs to be looked at. When you get the Greens and UKIP almost on the same side you know something is wrong.

SNP with 1.45 million voters getting 50+ seats? That is a good reason to sort out this system. Btw I have nothing against the SNP. I think they ran a superb campaign.

I work with a lot of people outside the UK, and they laugh at our system.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 10 May 2015, 20:37

marknorthfield wrote: I've had a few (non-Green) friends express the opinion that because 80 odd UKIP MPs would have been the result of PR, then they're content to stick with the system we have. I disagree with them on principle, because I think a system giving 5 million or so people 2MPs breeds contempt.

I think there's an error in this argument. A lot of people didn't vote Green because they thought it would be a 'wasted' vote. While A lot of UKIP voters may have been just sticking a finger up to the incumbency but not actually wanting a UKIP government. Under PR we should expect more Green Votes and fewer UKIP votes.

jonny2mad · Post by **jonny2mad** » 11 May 2015, 11:23

with the ukip vote growing would people like a ukip govt taking the position of the conservatives in a non PR system .
They were second in 120 seats this election if they keep improving at the rate they are eventually they might win a election even under this system.

if your in those 120 seats ukip already are credible to get elected in those seats

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 11 May 2015, 13:42

jonny2mad wrote: with the ukip vote growing would people like a ukip govt taking the position of the conservatives in a non PR system .
They were second in 120 seats this election if they keep improving at the rate they are eventually they might win a election even under this system.

if your in those 120 seats ukip already are credible to get elected in those seats

I think you're right. It's basically what happened with the SNP. The SNP didn't achieve their landslide as a result of First Past The Post. They did it in spite of FPTP, by simply achieving majorities in each of the constituencies they won. In many cases they overturned the incumbent's comfortable majority and replaced it with their own comfortable majority. If you win enough hearts and minds, that's what happens.*

I don't think UKIP are winning enough hearts and minds yet, but if they did, I think we'd see a "phase change" from very few seats to, suddenly, a lot under the current system.

They may have missed their opportunity though. The prospect of an in-out EU referendum should be enough to stem the frustrations of those who are concerned with immigration but feel nothing is being done about it.

* ETA: by way of an example, in my own constituency, the SNP went from a distant third in the 2010 election, behind the LIb Dems and Labour, to very clear winners last week.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 11 May 2015, 13:52

I strongly suspect that UKIP are the bette noir de jour, a safety valve for the disaffected and marginalised middle aged working class male. Takes the heat off the Tory leadership with their neo-liberal immigration policy keeping wages down, by enabling them to get less right wing MPs elected in the backwater constituencies.

UKIP are different from previous bette noirs - they are a rural and small town party, BNP, EDL are / were inner city young male thugs. UKIP are much less of a threat to civil order and so can be safely ignored and marginalised like the greens.

UKIP will not last - they have no-one to follow Farrage as a charismatic leader and their demographic is already ageing and has the lowest life expectancy of any party membership.

However, without constraints, the Tories will perform vicious welfare cuts, leaving millions at or below the breadline, just as the economy goes back into recession, and PO / shale oil collapse sends oil prices back to three figure territory.

Riots in the streets within 2 years.

jonny2mad · Post by **jonny2mad** » 11 May 2015, 15:14

farage said he will step down but most likely will put himself forward in a leadership race.

I dont know whats going to happen with them long term lots of conservatives would vote ukip if the conservatives annoyed them enough or they thought they had a chance of winning .

They might suprise you

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 11 May 2015, 16:38

Well, Farage has shown his usual ability to stick to his word - and decided against resigning.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 11 May 2015, 17:39

PS_RalphW wrote:Well, Farage has shown his usual ability to stick to his word - and decided against resigning.

It was the National Executive wot did it!

jonny2mad · Post by **jonny2mad** » 11 May 2015, 19:01

if he resigned he would have stood again and won that election anyway as hes very very popular with ukip .

He may have lost his seat and the party got only one vote but they would be crazy not to be pleased in getting 4 million people to voted for them

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 12 May 2015, 14:42

jonny2mad wrote:The greens and ukip and the liberals etc should forget they hate each other and mass protest for PR, forget all other issues .

Good idea says another idealist.

AutomaticEarth · Post by **AutomaticEarth** » 06 May 2016, 11:21

Not a bad result for UKIP. Gaining 20 seats in the England council elections, 6 seats in the Welsh Assembly.

In one local ward (Little Thurrock Blackshots), they missed out by just a single vote after 3 recounts

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 04 Jul 2016, 11:18

Nigel resigns. Again.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 04 Jul 2016, 13:06

Who's next?

Following Farage’s announcement on Monday, Carswell tweeted only a smiley-faced emoji to describe his mood. His eccentric, almost academic style and liberal views on immigration put him well out of step with most of the party membership. And Carswell has said that he is not interested in the leadership, on Monday putting his chance of running at “somewhere between nil and zero” ...............

There are others link

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 03 Aug 2016, 12:41

UKIP implosion a la Corbyn's Labour

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... rom-ballot

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 03 Aug 2016, 13:46

So Nigel Farage was right when he said they were a waste of space.