Gas alert as demand and prices rise

Post by **adam2** » 16 Jul 2016, 19:40

I view this with considerable concern.
We are now much more reliant on gas for electric power generation than was the case even one year ago.

A lot of gas imports come from unstable parts of the world, any interruption could reduce electricity availability within a week or two.

I find it significant that gas storage data is no longer shown on the "prevailing view" website, a cynic might suspect that "they" have something to hide and that the position is even worse than it may appear.

In recent weeks it would appear that some of the emergency OCGT generating plant has been tested, with rather variable results !
I wonder if the testing included operation on oil ?

Some such plant CAN burn light distillate oil instead of natural gas, but almost never DOES burn oil.
Regular oil burning in OCGT plant would probably require the declaration of a state of emergency, but it still seems a good idea to see if the facility still works!

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 16 Jul 2016, 20:24

The storage issue looks more like a bug to me.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 16 Jul 2016, 22:18

Let's hope it's not a feature..

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 16 Jul 2016, 22:28

There were detailed downloads. If those have gone then market participants would cause a stress. I assume they are still available.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 16 Jul 2016, 22:50

Here's something, don't know how good/bad it is Graph

Post by **adam2** » 16 Jul 2016, 23:08

woodburner wrote:Here's something, don't know how good/bad it is Graph

It appears to be the same information as currently shown on the "prevailing view" website.
Not updated for several weeks and therefore not indicative of stocks at present or in the recent past.

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 17 Jul 2016, 22:05

From the bbc link above:

"Technical problems have been ongoing at Rough for a while, but the market clearly did not anticipate this."

Markets never seem to anticipate things that will cost them money to prevent...

ok, maybe not never, but certainly where there is little cost to them if things don't work out.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 17 Jul 2016, 23:53

AFAIK Rough is all the Long Term Storage.

Post by **mikepepler** » 18 Jul 2016, 13:19

I looked into the missing data too. I periodically download a range of variables from this site:
http://marketinformation.natgrid.co.uk/ ... lorer.aspx
Last week I went to do a download, as Prevailing View was missing the storage data, only to find it is missing in the Data Item Explorer too....

As has been said, it could be viewed with suspicion.

Has anyone seen any long-range winter weather forecasts yet? I know they're of dubious value at this stage though....

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 18 Jul 2016, 13:31

We may be entering El nino. Does that affect UK winter temperatures?

Edit

I meant of course La Nina.

Currently the nino/lina balance is about neutral. Either way, there is no concensus on the impact on UK winter weather conditions.

So, as you were. Predictions are difficult, especially about UK weather...

Post by **mikepepler** » 18 Jul 2016, 13:51

I've done a short post on it with a few numbers in it. Last data available showed Rough 1/3 full (13727GWh on 14 July).
http://peakoilupdate.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... 01617.html

Post by **adam2** » 18 Jul 2016, 17:21

The consensus of (perhaps not that well informed) internet opinion seems to be that the coming winter will be colder than average.
Excluding the daily express who are predicting a new ice age that will persist for 50 years or more.

So, Rough is about one third full, and no more gas can be stored therein, at least not before next spring. But they MIGHT be able to make limited withdrawals from storage, presumably at a much reduced flow rate via only a limited number of wells, for the winter peak.

Hopefully the short and medium term stores are being filled ?

We will probably muddle through as we usually do, provided that imports are available without interruption, and that nothing goes wrong.

Post by **clv101** » 18 Jul 2016, 20:20

adam2 wrote:The consensus of (perhaps not that well informed) internet opinion seems to be that the coming winter will be colder than average.

Six months out, a forecast for the UK has next to no skill. There's approx. 50:50 chance of this winter being cooler than average.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 18 Jul 2016, 20:33

clv101 wrote:There's approx. 50:50 chance of this winter being cooler than average.

But has the average changed?

Post by **mikepepler** » 20 Jul 2016, 15:04

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditi ... FL8N1A6254

"British spot gas prices fell on Wednesday as excess supply created by a major cut in inventory restocking pushed exports to Europe to the highest monthly rate since at least 2011.

The closure of Britain's largest gas reservoir Rough until March next year released large volumes of gas earmarked for storage onto the open market, stimulating exports to Belgium through a under-sea gas link.

Sterling's sharp drop against the euro also makes UK gas even cheaper for European buyers, helping sustain a 1 penny spread between British and European day-ahead gas prices."

So, the gas that was going to go into storage is now going abroad, thus depressing prices, so we're earning less from the exports than we would have done, and will have to pay a premium to buy gas back in the winter...

I wonder if there would ever be a national realisation that if we all cut our gas use, not only would we get a lower bill as a direct result, but that the overall cost of gas might also drop slightly, bringing down bills further still?