EU membership referendum debate thread

[Little John]

All those things are true whether or not we decide to play awkward before triggering Article 50.

The bottom line is this: the people who drafted and agreed on Article 50 didn't want anybody to use it.

Our negotiating postion after a Leave victory in the referendum, without a subsequent referendum and without triggering Article 50, is much stronger than our negotiating position after triggering Article 50. The problem is that the moment we trigger Article 50 we give away all our existing powers and rights without getting anything in return, but if we make life difficult for the EU before triggering Article 50 then they are highly likely to give us a much better deal.

I think we need to hang on in there for a while longer. As soon as the EU gets a whiff that the British public understand the situation, they will suddenly be very compliant in doing a deal to get this sorted!!!

Of course we will give away our rights. That was the point. We don't want those rights because we don't want the responsibilities that come with them. Again. that's the point. What we get in return is our sovereignty and, to repeat once more, that's the point.

Everything else is up for negotiation and so EU regs for how a nation leaves are neither here nor there. It will come down to economic bargaining power and we hold the greatest number of those cards. So, I fail to see any good reason for now delaying. It is in the EU's interest as much if not more so than the UK's that a deal is struck quickly for the sake of their own economies. Thus, an invocation of article 50 immediately will focus minds in achieving that on both sides.

[UndercoverElephant]

You are suggesting we start from a 50/50 position which isn't a 50/50 position because the EU is much bigger than the UK, when we can alternatively start from a position where we have the EU's arse over a barrel!

Why do you think the EU are demanding we trigger article 50 ASAP and refusing any prior negotiations? Why should we do what they want???

Seriously Steve. We would be crazy to trigger Article 50 now. We have the EU by the bollocks. You are suggesting we let go and play by the Queensbury rules when we are out of our weight class.

[Little John]

You are suggesting we start from a 50/50 position which isn't a 50/50 position because the EU is much bigger than the UK, when we can alternatively start from a position where we have the EU's arse over a barrel!

Why do you think the EU are demanding we trigger article 50 ASAP and refusing any prior negotiations? Why should we do what they want???

Seriously Steve. We would be crazy to trigger Article 50 now. We have the EU by the bollocks.

I don't see how we have them by the bollocks pre-invoking invoking article 50 any more than we would post invocation of it/ Right now, we are in precisely the same position we were the day before the referendum and will remain so until article 50 is invoked. at which point, i am pretty sure minds will get focused very quickly indeed on both sides of the channel. I need you to explain to me what precisely the EU can do to us if we invoke article 50 right now that would otherwise not occur.

[UndercoverElephant]

You are suggesting we start from a 50/50 position which isn't a 50/50 position because the EU is much bigger than the UK, when we can alternatively start from a position where we have the EU's arse over a barrel!

Why do you think the EU are demanding we trigger article 50 ASAP and refusing any prior negotiations? Why should we do what they want???

Seriously Steve. We would be crazy to trigger Article 50 now. We have the EU by the bollocks.

I don't see how we have them by the bollocks pre-invoking invoking article 50 than we would if it were post-invocation. Right now, we are in precisely the same position we were the day before the referendum and will remain so until article 50 is invoked. at which point minds will get focused very quickly indeed.

We are not in precisely the same position we were the day before the referendum because everybody, including myself, Boris, Gove, Cameron and the leadership of the EU thought the result would be a victory for Remain. Now it is an historical fact that Leave won. In other words, the EU leadership has been shown to have miscalculated very badly about how seriously the electorate in north-west Europe, including in France and Germany, and in a major way in Denmark and Sweden, are sick to the back teeth of the EU, especially of unlimited freedom of movement. Right now the pro-EU powers are absolutely desperate for one of two things to happen - either the UK triggers Article 50, putting a time limit on "the troubles", or there is a second referendum in the UK which Remain wins. That is our Ace, Steve. You are suggesting we play it blind, when we could keep it in our hand knowing full well that the opposition are desperate for it to be gone.

[Little John]

You are suggesting we start from a 50/50 position which isn't a 50/50 position because the EU is much bigger than the UK, when we can alternatively start from a position where we have the EU's arse over a barrel!

Why do you think the EU are demanding we trigger article 50 ASAP and refusing any prior negotiations? Why should we do what they want???

Seriously Steve. We would be crazy to trigger Article 50 now. We have the EU by the bollocks.

I don't see how we have them by the bollocks pre-invoking invoking article 50 than we would if it were post-invocation. Right now, we are in precisely the same position we were the day before the referendum and will remain so until article 50 is invoked. at which point minds will get focused very quickly indeed.

We are not in precisely the same position we were the day before the referendum because everybody, including myself, Boris, Gove, Cameron and the leadership of the EU thought the result would be a victory for Remain. Now it is an historical fact that Leave won. In other words, the EU leadership has been shown to have miscalculated very badly about how seriously the electorate in north-west Europe, including in France and Germany, and in a major way in Denmark and Sweden, are sick to the back teeth of the EU, especially of unlimited freedom of movement. Right now the pro-EU powers are absolutely desperate for one of two things to happen - either the UK triggers Article 50, putting a time limit on "the troubles", or there is a second referendum in the UK which Remain wins. That is our Ace, Steve. You are suggesting we play it blind, when we could keep it in our hand knowing full well that the opposition are desperate for it to be gone.

I still don't follow what, precisely, this hand is. Or, rather, in what way a pre-article 50 hand looks any different to a post article 50 hand. What exactly is it that we are gaining by holding off with article 50. I need you to be specific UE. Does the EU currently hold some of our money or other assets?

[UndercoverElephant]

Before we trigger article 50: We can veto large amounts of normal EU business, with no end in sight for those in power in the EU, while there is dissent in other NW European countries.

After we trigger article 50: If we put a toe wrong, the EU says "f*** you, in two years you are out. Want some table scraps?"

Those are the relative NEGOTIATING POSITIONS.

[Little John]

Before we trigger article 50: We can veto large amounts of normal EU business, with no end in sight for those in power in the EU, while there is dissent in other NW European countries.

After we trigger article 50: If we put a toe wrong, the EU says "f*** you, in two years you are out. Want some table scraps?"

Those are the relative NEGOTIATING POSITIONS.

After we trigger article 50, if the EU say's "F--k you" on the slightest pretense, presumably you mean in economic terms. In which case our "F--k you" back would hurt them far more than it would hurt us. So, why would they do that? Or, to put it another way, if that really was going to be their intention, then playing silly beggers with them pre-article 50 is not going to make any difference save for making such economically suicidal behavior on their part more likely, not less. The game-theoretical logic of what you are arguing just doesn't stack up, it seems to me.

We just need to get this shit over with and resume business on the renewed footing of once again being a sovereign nation on the edge of Europe. Furthermore, the longer this delay keeps going, the more that our political class will use it to introduce drift into the original full-on Brexit. Or, worse, use it to trigger another referendum down the line in order to get the "right" result.

No. Article 50 needs to be invoked now.

[UndercoverElephant]

I think maybe this discussion would benefit from some input from some other regulars before you and I continue.

[kenneal - lagger]

If we do trigger Article 50 now the EU can just sit back and say you're out in 2 years on WTO terms and nothing else. Most trade on WTO terms is, I believe, on a maximum 3% tariff for most things with a few others up to 10%. Neither side can impose anything over those figures because they have been agreed worldwide.

Our requirement is for tariff free access without freedom of movement and without contributing to the EU budget just the same as the US and Canada have with TTIP and CETA. We can only get that by being awkward and threatening to cause trouble within other states which have an indigenous Out campaign.

As the Commission have announced that they are seeking further integration soon with the right to impose quotas of migrants on countries the former Eastern Bloc countries are up in arms. They had looked to us for support against this measure before Brexit. If we stay in the EU would be embarrassed on this further integration. If we stay in and vote against such measures it could stop the Commission getting their further integration.

I have heard a rumour, though, that our Dave gave away our right to veto such a measure as the price for the "reforms" that he announced before the referendum. If this is true and we stay in for too long we could find ourselves dragged further into the EU, into the Eurozone, and not getting out.

[Little John]

No, I have been thinking about his more and more. Those who would criticize the UK on the grounds we can't have our cake and eat it have a legitimate point. If we want to stick around to make changes, then we should not have voted Leave. But we did vote Leave for good or for ill. From my own perspective for good, of course. That being the case, the sooner we get this over with the better.

All of the issues you speak of regarding the EU giving the UK a hard time in terms of trading with the EU would certainly hurt the UK. However, they would hurt the EU even more. So, again, I ask why would they do this? It makes no game theoretical sense. Not least because how long do you think the workers of such countries would stand for it as German car workers or their bosses, for example, saw their factories close down on the back of their leaders' antagonism to trade with the UK?

However, given that we have voted to leave, to then hang around causing trouble in order to try and get concessions really is, I would argue, more likely to produce the negative outcome you mention.

In other words, if it is in the EU's interest to F--k us over post Brexit, then they can wait as long as it takes in order to do that. So, dithering about invoking article 50 just looks like we haven't got the balls to carry through with that which we voted for. In terms of how our relationship with Europe pans out post Brexit, it will be what it will be. It's time to stop pissing about now and just get on with it.

[Blue Peter]

All of the issues you speak of regarding the EU giving the UK a hard time in terms of trading with the EU would certainly hurt the UK. However, they would hurt the EU even more. So, again, I ask why would they do this? It makes no game theoretical sense.

I think it's a mistake to view it as people wanting or not wanting to trade with the UK. No one wants to trade with the UK per se; they want to buy widgets. If Mr. Widget is the best option, they will buy from him, and thereby add to the UK trade figures. However, if Mr. Widget becomes a less favourable deal, say through non-tariff trade barriers, then I am sure people will buy from Monsieur le Widget or Herr Widget just as readily. This will add to the trade figures of France or Germany, and explains why those governments, and others, might be quite happy for the UK to make trade with Europe harder (e.g. see France and Germany angling for UK financial business),


Peter.

[Catweazle]

I won't pretend to understand all the politics involved, but in simple terms it seems to me that the EU will try to punish us as a lesson to the other countries who are considering an exit. To counter this we must loudly proclaim that we are ready to sign trade deals with other exiters and are ready to talk about them now. If the EU want to hang onto their wavering members they'll need to give us a reasonable deal.

Declare 50 now, declare the UK open for business now. We were screwed as soon as we actually held the referendum, now we have to recover as best we can and pussy-footing around won't do it.

[johnhemming2]

From a negotiating perspective the only real control we have is on when we give an Article 50 notification. Therefore it has to be sat on until we have some idea as to where we are aiming to end up.

[UndercoverElephant]

I won't pretend to understand all the politics involved, but in simple terms it seems to me that the EU will try to punish us as a lesson to the other countries who are considering an exit. To counter this we must loudly proclaim that we are ready to sign trade deals with other exiters and are ready to talk about them now. If the EU want to hang onto their wavering members they'll need to give us a reasonable deal.

Declare 50 now, declare the UK open for business now. We were screwed as soon as we actually held the referendum, now we have to recover as best we can and pussy-footing around won't do it.

There is nothing preventing us from negotiating trade deals in principle with non-EU states, before invoking Article 50.

This isn't about "pussy-footing". This is about cold, hard negotiating, and unfortunately the situation we find ourselves in has been designed by politicians in the past who had no intention of making it easy to leave the EU. As John Hemming has pointed out, our trump card is when we invoke article 50, and the EU is very keen that we play it now. Not surprisingly, because the moment we play it then we lose it.

This is what we should say to the EU.

Dear EU

The people of the UK have voted to leave the EU, but the existing procedure for leaving has never been used and looks like wasn't designed to be used. It was designed by politicians/bureaucrats who wanted to satisfy the condition that leaving the EU was possible in theory while making it totally impractical. We need to negotiate the future relationship between the UK and the EU, and we need to do so before we invoke Article 50, because if we leave it until afterwards then we fear that the EU will take advantage of our weaker negotiating position in order to punish the UK for leaving, as a warning to other states that are considering leaving. We really would like these negotiations to take place in good faith and in a constructive manner. Unfortunately, at the moment you are point blank refusing to discuss these matters until we invoke Article 50, and this has led to something of an impasse. We don't want to threaten you, because that might start turning things sour, but we feel we should point out that there are other EU member states who are less than satisfied with the current state of the EU, and where anti-EU parties are breathing down the necks of the pro-EU incumbent governments. We would also like to remind you that until we invoke Article 50, the UK retains a veto over a considerable amount of EU business. Now...those pre-Article-50 negotiations...

Love from the UK

[Blue Peter]

To counter this we must loudly proclaim that we are ready to sign trade deals with other exiters and are ready to talk about them now.

We're not:

Britain does not have the negotiating resources for that endeavour and even if it did the timescale would be impossible.

From: Here


Peter.