EU membership referendum debate thread

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 01 Jul 2016, 09:18

You might be right. However, more will be cancelled because of the referendum result (not because of leaving the EU). Some will be held back until people see what is going on. That itself will have a substantial economic impact.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 01 Jul 2016, 09:23

You cannot know that. Given the state of the world economy, which is why there is an adjustment in UK interest rates, there are many problems with the economy, and it would be a good idea to grasp the nettle, and try to find a new way instead of trying to maintain BAU.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 01 Jul 2016, 09:45

As someone who has run his own business since 1983 I can know that uncertainty as to the macro situation will cause people to hold back on investments.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 01 Jul 2016, 11:15

fuzzy wrote: That is not a good article. It talks about the philosophy of food supply without actually bothering to list the details. Landowners are paid a subsidy by the EU if they produce crops or not - as long as you own 5 hectares, so crofters are stuffed. The UK used to grow a lot of produce in the channel islands before they decided to be tax havens instead of producers. Now we have cheap produce imports from sunnier places because of IT logistics/no fuel tax on aviation/chilled distribution tech/44 tonne double fuel tank HGV trucks [introduced by the EU] so Spanish lorry drivers can do a round trip without paying UK fuel prices so no contribution to our road costs.

All of these things could change if any govt cared, since the options were previously limited by EU rules. We could grow most food with modern polytunnels all over the UK but the rich are paid not to bother. Even this EU common market access scare is a crock of shite. Mutual tariffs would cause the EU to lose more since they sell us more, and it would encourage home production. The wasted extortion fee for access could be pumped into helping UK SME companies instead of helping multinational tax fiddlers in a common market..

I'm sure that Tim Lang (see ken's signature) could give you a long list of the details if you wanted. The point is that we are not prepared for it, and we cannot easily switch to another model at the drop of a hat (particularly not agriculture), especially when we don't even know what we are doing on so many fronts,

Peter.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 01 Jul 2016, 11:21

Lord Beria3 wrote:http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/

Greer has a superb column on brexit this week.

I disagree, I thought that it was rather weak. He makes the general point well that there are a host of people who have been left behind and that they wanted to stick two fingers up to the man; but I thought that even in that analysis he failed to identify the causes well (long term the deindustrialisation of Thatcher; and short-term the vicious austerity of the Tories).

Secondly, I thought that he was off on many of the details, e.g. the LibDems in 2010, were sticking to their ideals since they thought that they needed to show people that coalitions worked; and the shy Tories in 2015 weren't voting Tory to get the referendum - those people would have voted UKIP; they were shy about austerity.

Peter.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 01 Jul 2016, 12:42

Came back to PS expecting to see a long thread on the referendum [result] full of intelligent and irenic arguments. Was not disappointed.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 01 Jul 2016, 13:21

Tess wrote:irenic arguments

You just can't kick that religion, eh?

Peter.

P.S. Had to check, irenic = a part of Christian theology concerned with reconciling different denominations and sects. So, very appropriate here.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 01 Jul 2016, 13:26

Blue Peter wrote:
Tess wrote:irenic arguments
You just can't kick that religion, eh?

Peter.

Lol! No, indeed, I'm training to be a priest

in the C of E down in Truro. So rapidly becoming a Cornish nationalist.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 01 Jul 2016, 13:44

Well done, and good luck,

Peter.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 01 Jul 2016, 13:46

johnhemming2 wrote:I was referring to the archdruid report.

In terms of the money we actually pay to the EU (because we get a rebate and don't pay the full £250) minus that which we get back. I did some analysis on my blog
http://johnhemming.blogspot.co.uk/2016/ ... euros.html

The big question is what the UK taxpayer gets from the passporting rules for banks and the ability to clear Euro denominated bonds. There are loads of taxes on these activities not just corporation tax. There is a good link explaining all of this.

There are also things like Vodafone's international HQ and the investment by people like SIemens (cancelled) and EDF (probably not proceeding).

All of these affect the UK tax take. The OBR will do calculations on this.

£13Bn [from your link] is 250 million a week. Any farming subsidy coming in does not reduce my costs - I don't get it back, it's the Earl of Buccleuch and the Saxe Coburgs who trouser it.

Norway pays the extortion for no EU duty levied presumably because they are an oil exporter and it would reduce their sales by adding to the sale price of a fungable product. We are oil importers and any tariffs levied by the govt in a tit-for-tat with EU would go into gov coffers. No wonder the neocon globalists hate the idea.

Vodafone is an example of the sort of company HMRC can't be arsed to tax properly. These clowns have been making threats since Dave Hartnetts greasy ways were made public.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 01 Jul 2016, 15:47

johnhemming2 wrote:As someone who has run his own business since 1983 I can know that uncertainty as to the macro situation will cause people to hold back on investments.

No you can't, it's just speculation. There may be many reasons why people hold back on investments. I know from experience it has been difficult to get investment since at least 2008, and probably a few years prior to that. I also know that there are several reasons why the investment might not be forthcoming, and until recently none of them have had anything to do with suggestions of leaving the EU, that is just this month's round of excuses.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 01 Jul 2016, 16:14

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36681794

Mark Carney says there is a deteriorating outlook. He will have better information than me. I just know things like when it rains you might get wet if you don't have an umbrella.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 01 Jul 2016, 16:27

There has been a deteriorating outlook for the past several years. Why else have we had such low interest rates? Now everyone who voted remain is trying to blame the leavers. It's a world problem, not just a SE UK problem. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs to WAKE UP!!!!!!!!!

Post by **clv101** » 01 Jul 2016, 17:20

woodburner wrote:There has been a deteriorating outlook for the past several years. Why else have we had such low interest rates? Now everyone who voted remain is trying to blame the leavers. It's a world problem, not just a SE UK problem. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs to WAKE UP!!!!!!!!!

Indeed, a vote for Remain wasn't a vote for another couple decades of business and usual, it was a vote for a slightly different flavoured collapse at a slightly different time.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 01 Jul 2016, 17:33

Here is Mark Carney's speech
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publicat ... ech915.pdf

The vote to leave the EU has done economic harm. It is not as harmful as a resource depletion peak, but it will still impact on people's lives.

Even if we don't leave the EU some harm will have been done.