EU membership referendum debate thread

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 27 Jun 2016, 23:59

Little John wrote:I agree with you on the point about article 50 being a pile of bullshit and how the system was set such that it is more or less impossible to Leave.

Which is precisely why we are absolutely right to leave, no matter how difficult that process may be.

I think the situation is more complicated than that. As things stand I think it is practically impossible to leave - as in it is theoretically possible, but only under such conditions as even most leave supporters - yourself included - would almost certainly not want to leave.

There is no point in leaving the EU if we end up keeping most of the things we don't want at the same time as losing those things that are actually good about being in the EU. And that is precisely what would happen if we leave via the Article 50 mechanism.

The only way we can actually leave the EU, without totally shooting ourselves in the head, would be to negotiate an alternative exit procedure. We need to be able to negotiate terms in a situation where the power isn't completely in the hands of the EU. But the EU can't offer us that without it being agreed by all 27 other member states, and it is a safe bet that even if 26 of them agreed, France would veto it.

So where does that leave us? I think we have no choice but to threaten to destabilise the EU. Far from triggering Article 50 ASAP like they want us to, we have to make clear that we are going to be extremely awkward customers unless the EU either offers us favourable exit terms or a concession on freedom of movement followed by a second referendum. And we can be very awkward customers indeed. As things stand, we remain full members of the EU and there is nothing the EU can do to kick us out. That means we are technically capable of throwing a massive spanner in the works - we can veto everything veto-able and hobble every commitee we have a representative on. The EU would end up with a full member whose only goal was to be as disruptive as possible until such time as we are granted favourable exit terms or a major concession on freedom of movement. And we would be justified in doing so, both morally and legally, because we've been put in an impossible position by the EU itself - by an unusable treaty and an EU leadership that refused to negotiate before Article 50 is triggered.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Jun 2016, 00:02

Little John wrote:In case you missed this because I added it after:

Part of our negotiating tactic should be to shout from the rooftops about how the article 50 mechanism is designed to **** over leaving nations in order to make it effectively impossible to properly negotiate an orderly exit. This, in turn, will cause the population of various EU countries to become even more antipathetic to the EU project than they already are and the EU architects will want to avoid that at all cost

I did miss it. I have posted again since then.

Yes, we should make very clear that article 50 is unusable, but this should not stop at shouting. We are perfectly capable of completely f*cking up the EU from inside if we're not offered a better way out. That is why the EU are desperate for us to trigger article 50 ASAP. I think that there are people in the EU who already understand what we are just figuring out now.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Jun 2016, 00:02

If leaving meant I was living in a field eating boiled grass this time next year, I would still vote to leave, I can assure you. I also agree, if we have to play dirty to gain an equitable exit, then that is what the UK must do.

In other words, the UK must do whatever it takes.

Post by **clv101** » 28 Jun 2016, 00:27

I've just spent the evening with an air-ambulance nurse (French) and a teacher (Spanish). Their comprehension of European politics was far greater than the vast majority of Brits I know, additionally, their understanding of UK politics was superior to most Brits.

They couldn't believe we could be so stupid (to even offer the referendum, let alone the result), but also both believed the EU-proper would be a lot better off without the UK awkward-squad.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Jun 2016, 00:40

clv101 wrote: both believed the EU-proper would be a lot better off without the UK awkward-squad.

I suspect they ain't seen nothing yet. If this goes the way I think it is going, we are going to have to redefine "awkward".

But the referendum itself was probably unavoidable, because of the presence and political/electoral rise and relevance of UKIP. Cameron had to offer it in the tory manifesto at the last general election in order to prevent tory voters and MPs defecting to UKIP, and if he'd ended up in another coalition then the referendum would not have happened. But he ended up with a slim majority. Why? Because working class voters in industrial areas defected from Labour to UKIP.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Jun 2016, 00:40

clv101 wrote:I've just spent the evening with an air-ambulance nurse (French) and a teacher (Spanish). Their comprehension of European politics was far greater than the vast majority of Brits I know, additionally, their understanding of UK politics was superior to most Brits.

They couldn't believe we could be so stupid (to even offer the referendum, let alone the result), but also both believed the EU-proper would be a lot better off without the UK awkward-squad.

Would you care to expand on the reasons for their observations of our "stupidity"? Otherwise, we may regard your post as just another example of condescending rhetoric

3rdRock · Post by **3rdRock** » 28 Jun 2016, 05:44

Here's a prophetic pre-referendum video-clip from Owen Jones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FqAaD_lsRw

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 28 Jun 2016, 07:14

clv101 wrote:I've just spent the evening with an air-ambulance nurse (French) and a teacher (Spanish). Their comprehension of European politics was far greater than the vast majority of Brits I know, additionally, their understanding of UK politics was superior to most Brits.

They couldn't believe we could be so stupid (to even offer the referendum, let alone the result), but also both believed the EU-proper would be a lot better off without the UK awkward-squad.

They sound like racist xenophobic bigots to me.

3rdRock · Post by **3rdRock** » 28 Jun 2016, 07:42

Latest from Polly Townbee

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... emy-corbyn

This is now Project Betrayal – and we are all victims

The blame falls entirely on the Tories for this referendum – and on Boris Johnson for his despicable campaign. Did the voters take back control? No

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Jun 2016, 08:25

3rdRock wrote:Latest from Polly Townbee

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... emy-corbyn

This is now Project Betrayal – and we are all victims

The blame falls entirely on the Tories for this referendum – and on Boris Johnson for his despicable campaign. Did the voters take back control? No

I don't agree that the blame for the referendum lies entirely on the tories - I think UKIP were a major factor. But I do agree to the extent that the FUBAR - the insane position we now find ourselves in - is entirely the fault of the Tories. You can't blame Farage, because he was always comitted to leaving the EU and if he was in charge of proceedings then he would already have issued an article 50 notice, whatever the consequences. Nope - the FUBAR is the responsibility of David Cameron and Boris Johnson. Both of them believed it was impossible for Leave to win, and both were playing internal party politics with the future of the nation. Cameron claimed that Article 50 would be triggered on Friday morning, and he was lying. He initially believed it wouldn't have to happen at all, and it then became a bluff/lie/threat to stop people voting Leave. And Boris made all sort of claims he didn't actually believe, safe in the knowledge that Remain would win the referendum.

Between them. they've created the biggest political mess I've ever seen in this country.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Jun 2016, 08:53

UndercoverElephant wrote:
3rdRock wrote:Latest from Polly Townbee

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... emy-corbyn

This is now Project Betrayal – and we are all victims

The blame falls entirely on the Tories for this referendum – and on Boris Johnson for his despicable campaign. Did the voters take back control? No
I don't agree that the blame for the referendum lies entirely on the tories - I think UKIP were a major factor. But I do agree to the extent that the FUBAR - the insane position we now find ourselves in - is entirely the fault of the Tories. You can't blame Farage, because he was always comitted to leaving the EU and if he was in charge of proceedings then he would already have issued an article 50 notice, whatever the consequences. Nope - the FUBAR is the responsibility of David Cameron and Boris Johnson. Both of them believed it was impossible for Leave to win, and both were playing internal party politics with the future of the nation. Cameron claimed that Article 50 would be triggered on Friday morning, and he was lying. He initially believed it wouldn't have to happen at all, and it then became a bluff/lie/threat to stop people voting Leave. And Boris made all sort of claims he didn't actually believe, safe in the knowledge that Remain would win the referendum.

Between them. they've created the biggest political mess I've ever seen in this country.

It may be a mess, but is a necessary mess. Whatever it takes to extricate ourselves from the EU before the shooting start is what it must take. This is indeed uncharted territory and so we must make it up as we go along.

A stand off between the EU and the UK on the terms of exit is an inevitable aspect of that exit. And who blinks first cannot be determined until the fact of exit becomes real, as it now has. Uncharted territory demands uncharted responses to circumstances as they arise. Or should we have it that the UK's (or any country for that matter) democratic right to secede from the EU should be usurped due to all just being a bit difficult?

Bring it on.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Jun 2016, 09:18

Below the impending collapse of the EU, below the rise of anti-establishment sentiment across the entire Western world, below the Arab Springs, below the global migrant crisis and the endless disastrous military adventurism by the West in the Middle East...below ALL of this are the utterly intractable four horsemen of climate change, ecological degradation, peak resources and, the biggest of them all because it is the driver of the other three, massive global human population overshoot.

We all know well enough on here that a shit storm is coming to the world and there is absolutely NOTHING that can be done to stop that. All that any nation can do is protect itself as best it can before the shooting starts. And, when it does, make alliances based on the circumstances as they present themselves.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 28 Jun 2016, 09:21

>Below the impending collapse of the EU
There is a growth in far right politics. This is mainly driven by migratory pressures and the eonomic displacement. The far right tend to be anti international bodies of which the EU is one.

Otherwise I don't think the EU is facing collapse.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Jun 2016, 10:42

johnhemming2 wrote:>Below the impending collapse of the EU
There is a growth in far right politics. This is mainly driven by migratory pressures and the eonomic displacement. The far right tend to be anti international bodies of which the EU is one.

Otherwise I don't think the EU is facing collapse.

There is a growth in anti establishment sentiment. Some of it is Left wing and some of it is Right wing. It' get further complicated by the fact that most of that sentiment, be if of Left or Right, is nationalistic in tone largely because that is the rational response, but also because the establishment is global corporate capitalism.

There is something older and deeper than mere Left/Right politics going on. Which is why we saw the partial disintegration of old Left/Right divisions in terms of the people who were in the respective camps in the EU referendum

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 28 Jun 2016, 10:52

johnhemming2 wrote:>Below the impending collapse of the EU
There is a growth in far right politics. This is mainly driven by migratory pressures and the eonomic displacement. The far right tend to be anti international bodies of which the EU is one.

Otherwise I don't think the EU is facing collapse.

The EU and the USA were already facing eventual collapse from persistent overspending on social programs using borrowed money. The migration crisis has merely moved forward the day of reckoning when the bills came due with no money in the coffers or lines of credit remaining.