EU membership referendum debate thread

Post by **clv101** » 26 Jun 2016, 09:45

UndercoverElephant wrote:
clv101 wrote:Marr's on BBC at 9am (with Farage, IDS, Sajid Javid, Sturgeon, John McDonnell...) Peston's on ITV at 10am (Sturgeon, Hammond, Esther McVey, Ed Balls, Osborne's ex chief of staff...) So not a single member of the official Leave campaign? Isn't it weird how no one wants to talk about their victory?
Farage wasn't a member of the leave campaign?

No, Boris and Gove didn't want anything to do with him. He had his own unofficial 'Grassroots Out' campaign. The reason why this is interesting is that we have a bit of a power vacuum at the moment, with the winning Leave campaign having the mandate. Their silence over the last 48 hours is striking.

Post by **clv101** » 26 Jun 2016, 09:47

Little John wrote:The referendum was not on our migration policy. It was, amongst other things a referendum on our capacity to set our migration policy. That can now be determined in a democratically accountable way

We're in agreement then.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 26 Jun 2016, 09:53

clv101 wrote:Their silence over the last 48 hours is striking.

The key initial electorate is the MPs in the tory party who decide which two MPs to put to the membership.

Best to keep your power dry.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 26 Jun 2016, 09:55

Little John wrote:The referendum was not on our migration policy. It was, amongst other things a referendum on our capacity to set our migration policy. That can now be determined in a democratically accountable way

The referendum was what was on the ballot paper. What effect leaving the EU (if in the end we do so) will have on our ability to set immigration policy is a completely different issue.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 26 Jun 2016, 09:59

clv101 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
clv101 wrote:Marr's on BBC at 9am (with Farage, IDS, Sajid Javid, Sturgeon, John McDonnell...) Peston's on ITV at 10am (Sturgeon, Hammond, Esther McVey, Ed Balls, Osborne's ex chief of staff...) So not a single member of the official Leave campaign? Isn't it weird how no one wants to talk about their victory?
Farage wasn't a member of the leave campaign?
No, Boris and Gove didn't want anything to do with him. He had his own unofficial 'Grassroots Out' campaign. The reason why this is interesting is that we have a bit of a power vacuum at the moment, with the winning Leave campaign having the mandate. Their silence over the last 48 hours is striking.

I don't find it remotely surprising.

Of course there's a "power vacuum". This is what uncertainty and instability looks like.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 26 Jun 2016, 10:00

johnhemming2 wrote:
Little John wrote:The referendum was not on our migration policy. It was, amongst other things a referendum on our capacity to set our migration policy. That can now be determined in a democratically accountable way
The referendum was what was on the ballot paper. What effect leaving the EU (if in the end we do so) will have on our ability to set immigration policy is a completely different issue.

There are all kinds of indirect real world constraints on all kinds of issues irrespective of the democratic will of the people. That is trivially true. What was not trivially true was (and still is) the EU's capacity to directly intervene and usurp the democratic will of the UK people. Migration is one aspect, but there are many others.

That is what this referendum was about.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 26 Jun 2016, 10:34

That, however, applies to all treaties. (including the UN and NATO).

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 26 Jun 2016, 11:11

Having just watched Marr and Peston, I am now of the opinion we are indeed facing the most serious constitutional crisis in modern British history. If you spin if enough lies upon lies upon lies, you eventually end up so enmeshed in that web of lies that there is no room left to move. That is where our politicians now find themselves. It turns out that both the Remain and Leave campaigns were peddling packs of lies.

The SNP can't do anything - Nicola Sturgeon's keeps talking about how it is unthinkable that Westminster would refuse Scotland a new referendum, but she knows this is more b*llocks. The truth is that no Westminster government in its right mind would allow a Scottish referendum on independence to further complicate what is already an unmanagably complicated situation.

The key question is what the tories can do. They need to find a leader who can both unite the their own party and lead the country through the Brexit negotiations. Given that they have a majority of only 17 and that most of their MPs want to remain in the EU, they cannot get away with electing a leader who is only half capable of doing either of these things. But who have they got to choose from? Boris Johnson, who more than half the parliamentary Tory party don't want as leader, and who apparently has doubts about filing Article 50? I don't believe BJ can do either of these things - he can neither unite the tories nor lead the country through the Brexit negotiations, and he knows it. Gove is even worse, and I think the tories know he will be an electoral liability at a time that a general election is a distinct possibility. And the only other realistic candidate is Theresa May, who supported Leave and is likely to be reluctant to file an Article 50 notice.

I think there really is only one way out of this, and that is to call a General Election where the parties stand on their position regarding what to do about the current impasse: whether or not they will file Article 50, when they will file it and what they believe they can negotiate. And this time, they will need to stick much closer to the truth, or they will find themselves in an impossible situation the moment they are elected.

Meanwhile, all of the above is enough to give Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker heart failure, or send them into a mental institution. This is the absolute last thing the EU needs, because while this chaos unfolds in the UK, there are going to be general elections in several European countries where anti-EU opposition parties are in the ascendency. The problem the EU has is that so long as the situation in the UK remains unresolved, they have no power to contain "contagion". But demanding the UK acts more quickly is pointless, because so long as there is no authority in the UK capable of managing the Brexit process, it is impossible to proceed. And there is no way for the EU to force it to happen faster, because the referendum wasn't legally binding and there are no EU treaty clauses that allows expulsion of the UK in the country situation.

Just for once "uncharted territory" really does mean exactly that.

I believe there is going to be a general election within 12 months, and probably sooner.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 26 Jun 2016, 11:33

UE - there is one thing Brussels can still do.

Offer Britain complete control of migration and a formal associate membership status with parliament supreme as part of a new offer to stay within the EU.

The majority of Britain will vote to Remain.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 26 Jun 2016, 11:48

Lord Beria3 wrote:parliament supreme

All international treaties require compromise.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 26 Jun 2016, 11:53

UndercoverElephant wrote: And the only other realistic candidate is Theresa May, who supported Leave and is likely to be reluctant to file an Article 50 notice.

Theresa Mays speech in support of remain is below.

http://www.conservativehome.com/parliam ... -text.html

A General Election is unlikely to be wanted by the tories before they have the new boundaries.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 26 Jun 2016, 11:55

johnhemming2 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote: And the only other realistic candidate is Theresa May, who supported Leave and is likely to be reluctant to file an Article 50 notice.
Theresa Mays speech in support of remain is below.

http://www.conservativehome.com/parliam ... -text.html

A General Election is unlikely to be wanted by the tories before they have the new boundaries.

Typo. I meant Remain.

And I know the tories don't want a general election. I just don't think they will be able to avoid it.

Post by **clv101** » 26 Jun 2016, 12:05

UndercoverElephant wrote:Having just watched Marr and Peston, I am now of the opinion we are indeed facing the most serious constitutional crisis in modern British history.

Yeah, I do wonder what's going to happen to the markets tomorrow morning. The situation seems a hell of a lot more 'uncertain' now than it did immediately after the vote. There really do need to be some clear statements of intent from the government and the winning 'Leave' campaign before Monday morning.

UndercoverElephant wrote:I think there really is only one way out of this, and that is to call a General Election where the parties stand on their position regarding what to do about the current impasse: whether or not they will file Article 50, when they will file it and what they believe they can negotiate. And this time, they will need to stick much closer to the truth, or they will find themselves in an impossible situation the moment they are elected.

Yeah, I think a general election is likely and required. The difficulty is that the Labour and Conservative parties don't make obvious sense anymore. The 'Remain' Tories have more in common with the Blairite wing of Labour party, the 'Leave' Tories have more in common with UKIP and Corbyn's never going to bring the rest of the party's grandees to his cause, but still(?) has popular support... How can these parties as they currently stand fight a general election?

Maybe we're in for a string of indecisive messy elections... the European way, Italy, Greece etc.

Meanwhile, the big issues in the physical world, energy, climate, food security, wars etc are likely to be ignored.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 26 Jun 2016, 12:20

clv101 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:Having just watched Marr and Peston, I am now of the opinion we are indeed facing the most serious constitutional crisis in modern British history.
Yeah, I do wonder what's going to happen to the markets tomorrow morning.

I would think the selling pressure has now occurred. The news was on Friday morning (early am) and the response during the day.

There may not be that much of a movement up, but it might nudge up.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 26 Jun 2016, 12:23

clv101 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:Having just watched Marr and Peston, I am now of the opinion we are indeed facing the most serious constitutional crisis in modern British history.
Yeah, I do wonder what's going to happen to the markets tomorrow morning. The situation seems a hell of a lot more 'uncertain' now than it did immediately after the vote. There really do need to be some clear statements of intent from the government and the winning 'Leave' campaign before Monday morning.

Will not happen.

UndercoverElephant wrote:Corbyn's never going to bring the rest of the party's grandees to his cause, but still(?) has popular support...

It is draining away as we speak, IMO. I am hoping he will recognise this, and walk away.