Gas alert as demand and prices rise

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 08 Jun 2016, 19:02

That's rather sad, the light's won't be going out. It would be better if they did go out and we could have much less light pollution.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 08 Jun 2016, 19:10

biffvernon wrote:This report says we won't need coal:

http://green.brightblue.org.uk/publicat ... pajmpjsqlv

http://www.carbonbrief.org/uk-electrici ... -thinktank

If renewables rise to 36.7GW and they build from 5 to 21 GW of CCGT plants by 2025. Those are pretty big IFs. They also project LNG prices to rise from 35p/therm to 53p/therm but just assume the world supply will be adequate. They mention importing LNG from the USA and Australia. but don't discuss the reliability of those supplies. There is always Russia I suppose.
They recommend regulating coal to close to give certainty to the markets but again do that before the replacement plants are on line.
Risky risky risky!

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 09 Jun 2016, 01:34

If they insulated our houses properly they could save 40% of the gas that we use at the moment which would go a long way towards any new requirements.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 09 Jun 2016, 03:07

kenneal - lagger wrote:If they insulated our houses properly they could save 40% of the gas that we use at the moment which would go a long way towards any new requirements.

All well and good but you if anyone should know how hard it will be to actually get that done.
My only point, (I can't call it a beef as I don't live on the UK electric grid) is that they insist on closing coal plants down on a date certain when they are very uncertain about when or even if the replacement lower carbon alternative will be in place. Swap that around and install the alternatives first and then retire the then un needed coal plants and I think your all set.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 09 Jun 2016, 04:32

Your way would need them to know what they are doing, VT!

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 09 Jun 2016, 05:28

They do. They are clearing the way for fracking. It won't supply the fuel and it won't cure the problems, but hey!, who cares? It'll be more nature destroyed and that'll be good for the environment - er - and if it isn't we can blame the others for leaving/remaining in the EU.

Post by **clv101** » 24 Jun 2016, 21:10

This could be problematic come the winter...

Shutdown at UK's largest gas facility
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36604520

Wholesale gas prices have been volatile following news that the UK's largest gas storage facility is being shut down for 42 days.
Gas prices for the coming winter surged more than 8% on Wednesday after Centrica Storage said its Rough facility would close until 3 August.
The plant accounts for 72% of the country's gas storage capacity, but has been affected by safety issues.

Post by **adam2** » 25 Jun 2016, 11:37

A matter of considerable concern IMO, UK natural gas storage was already very limited.
It remains to be seen if the facility will be available in time to be fully filled for winter, and indeed what the available capacity will be.

I expect a substantial increase in natural gas demand this winter, if compared to recent historical consumption.
More efficient boilers and improved insulation standards are driving a long term trend towards reduced household gas consumption.
Unfortunately this is being offset by a substantial increase in gas burnt for electricity production. As reported elsewhere on these forums there has been a very substantial reduction in UK coal fired generating capacity.

The closed coal burning plants are being replaced largely by increased gas burning capacity. (some of the closed coal burning capacity has been replaced by nothing !)

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 25 Jun 2016, 11:54

In a sense, however, the LNG acts as a form of storage just not of gas extracted in the UK (although short term storage is also LNG).

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 25 Jun 2016, 12:34

Will the Brexit make you imported gas supply less secure and more expensive?

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 25 Jun 2016, 12:40

A reduction in the value of Sterling puts the cost up, but otherwise I would not think it will make that much difference.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 25 Jun 2016, 13:46

johnhemming2 wrote:A reduction in the value of Sterling puts the cost up, but otherwise I would not think it will make that much difference.

Not the answer I was expecting. I expect anything you are importing from or through the EU will become less certain especially during times of shortage. That includes Natural gas from Russia and electricity from France. Even NG from the Norwegian section of the North sea might be held inside the remains of the EU and not sold to you at any price.
It might be from a Me and mine first attitude or a stick it to the deserter attitude but I would not count on trade relations and prices from the EU being all sweetness and light.

Post by **adam2** » 25 Jun 2016, 15:02

Agree, whilst times are normal electricity from France and natural gas from further afield should be readily available at the prevailing price.

However in the event of any exceptional event that resulted in shortages, then I suspect that we might well be "last in the queue"
My natural cynicism leads me to suspect that had we remained in the EU that our gas would have suddenly become "EU gas" so I doubt that we are actually any worse off.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 25 Jun 2016, 15:36

adam2 wrote:Agree, whilst times are normal electricity from France and natural gas from further afield should be readily available at the prevailing price.

However in the event of any exceptional event that resulted in shortages, then I suspect that we might well be "last in the queue"
My natural cynicism leads me to suspect that had we remained in the EU that our gas would have suddenly become "EU gas" so I doubt that we are actually any worse off.

Perhaps but with this new deal of the cards your going to need to take at close look at the new realities and build storage and LNG terminals sufficient to not be beholden to anyone for a mid winter or mid crisis delivery. You might even want to keep some of those coal burning plants operational as a backup on the electricity supply which would save gas during a gas shortage.
I would also not count on LNG exports from the USA before they actually develop if ever.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 25 Jun 2016, 16:42

vtsnowedin wrote:I expect anything you are importing from or through the EU will become less certain especially during times of shortage. That includes Natural gas from Russia and electricity from France. Even NG from the Norwegian section of the North sea might be held inside the remains of the EU and not sold to you at any price.

True, but the LNG doesn't come from there. Norwegian gas comes down a pipeline as does gas from somewhere else which comes across the channel (that might even be molecules that have visited Russia).