EU membership referendum debate thread

Post by **adam2** » 24 Jun 2016, 04:54

In all but name, this is now a done deal.

Simple arithmetic shows that a "remain" victory is still a theoretical possibility, but such a result would require a most improbable percentage of "remain" votes among those yet to be counted.

Brexit is at present at 51.6% and the BBC are forecasting a final result of 52% for leaving.

Post by **clv101** » 24 Jun 2016, 05:18

Oh boy! It's going to be an interesting week.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 24 Jun 2016, 06:10

6.05 on 24th June 2016 and the UK is leaving the EU by 51.7% of the Vote!!!

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 24 Jun 2016, 06:11

First, I voted leave, however there were 28% of the electorate's votes missing, and the margin of 52% to 48% is narrow, and is not the sort of figures that justify a description of "victory" as some on the BBC have described it. The vote will mean the arrangements with the EU will be negotiated. It doesn't mean any group has a mandate, it wasn't an election.

I wonder what the environmental consequences have been, as the UK government have a poor record and the brakes had been applied by the EU.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 24 Jun 2016, 06:21

28% of the vote aren't bothered about being in or out. If they were they should have voted. There wasn't any question of whether a vote was worth anything in this election so if you didn't vote it was because you didn't care. As far as England and Wales are concerned it was more decisive. Scotland and Northern Ireland were always going to vote in and have their own agenda. It was a referendum to ask what the British population wanted to do and they have given their verdict so it is a mandate.

As far as the environment goes, if labour doesn't take note of what much of its vote have said they will lose that vote to UKIP so UKIP and the much hated Tories might just be able to form a government in four years time at the next election.

If Labour does take note of the way that its supporters voted and addresses immigration and their other worries they, along with the Welsh and Scots Nationalists could form a government and undo anything the current government does to the environment and working conditions.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 24 Jun 2016, 06:30

And Osborn'e constituency voted Leave. I hope that leaves him up the creek sans paddle! If he gets thrown out of the Chancellor of the Exchequer role much of the anti environment drive goes.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 24 Jun 2016, 06:58

Well, I got it right again!!

A stunning result!

Very happy today

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 24 Jun 2016, 07:06

http://atimes.com/2016/06/britain-bests-brussels/

It is a victory for democracy and national sovereign, and a defeat for the Utopian ambitions of the European elite. Some sectors of the British economy (most of all export industry) will benefit; others will suffer due to the inevitable obstacles to free trade that will emerge as Britain exits.

Europe’s attention now will turn to Italy, whose $2.2 trillion sovereign debt is the same as Germany’s with an economy barely over half the size. Roughly a fifth of Italian bank loans are non-performing, and Italian banks are trading at liquidation prices. The Italians now will be tempted not merely to leave the European Union, but to breakout of the common currency–which would allow the Italian Treasury to pay back its debt in devalued local currency, and to issue IOU’s to paper over the problems of its banks. The victory last Sunday’s Rome and Turin mayoral elections of the Five Star Movement–an expression of populist surrealism–portends a collapse of the center-left government of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. The British example probably will set an example for the Italian populists and Euroskeptics elsewhere.

That is a serious problem–not big enough to bring down the world financial system, but enough to keep European bureaucrats running in tight circles for some years to come.

Another victor in the unexpected Brexit vote is American presidential candidate Donald Trump, whose brand of populist nationalism resonates with anti-European sentiment in Britain. Trump will point to the British vote as a defeat for elite economic management and a precedent for a popular movement to restore national sovereignty to economics.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 24 Jun 2016, 07:08

kenneal - lagger wrote:28% of the vote aren't bothered about being in or out. If they were they should have voted. There wasn't any question of whether a vote was worth anything in this election so if you didn't vote it was because you didn't care. As far as England and Wales are concerned it was more decisive. Scotland and Northern Ireland were always going to vote out and have their own agenda. It was a referendum to ask what the British population wanted to do and they have given their verdict so it is a mandate.
.

To say 28% didn't care is the sort of devisive language you expect from a general election. It is wise to be magnanamous in victory (if that's what you would call it). To assume anyone's reason for not voting is hardly conciliatory. Are you living in the same UK as the one that voted? The majority in Scotland voted to remain. A mandate is given in an election which has been campainged on a published manifesto. There was not a manifesto except to remain or leave, so no mandate.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 24 Jun 2016, 07:30

Saying the 28% who didn't vote don't care/couldn't be bothered is not at all divisive or triumphant. It's a statement of fact!

The manifestos were single issues as were the questions.

Do you want to remain in the EU?

Do you want to leave the EU?

It couldn't be any plainer than that. The result is a direct instruction to the government to leave the EU forthwith. There was no requirement for a certain majority. The Referendum was called on a "most votes win" basis. All parties agreed to this so the winner has a mandate, no and instruction, to take the country out of the EU.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 24 Jun 2016, 07:30

clv101 wrote:Oh boy! It's going to be an interesting week.

Actually an interesting 3-4 years.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 24 Jun 2016, 07:33

If the result had been the other way there is no way that Cameron, Osborne, Corbyn and the rest would have conceded that perhaps we might have to look just a little bit at leaving. That would be extremely silly, to put it politely!!

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 24 Jun 2016, 07:37

We are going to leave (I assume), but the deadline of 2 years is from when notice is given. Any sensible government would try to work out what happens next before giving notice.

AutomaticEarth · Post by **AutomaticEarth** » 24 Jun 2016, 07:57

Should be interesting when the markets open this morning.....

Post by **clv101** » 24 Jun 2016, 08:10

https://www.google.co.uk/#q=ftse
FTSE 100 down 8.2% in opening minutes.

https://www.google.co.uk/#q=ftse+250
250 down 12%!