What can we do to change the minds of decision makers and people in general to actually do something about preparing for the forthcoming economic/energy crises (the ones after this one!)?
woodburner wrote:Remain may well win, but it has nothing to do with fate being sealed by that ridiculous poll.
Yeah, it's been clear for the last week that Remain are well ahead - when you consider what 'don't knows' are most likely to do, and the likelihood of a swing to the status quo the in final days/hours. It's been very disappointing how the media and most commentators have only focused on the headline poll result. The pound has been strengthening against the dollar and euro all week, the bookies odd on Leave getting longer and longer all week, now 3.5 vs 0.2!.
Along with the FTSE galloping ahead. Although that in itself shouldn't be construed as everything is going to be hunky dory - if anything the opposite is far more likely to happen!
The point of posting "that ridiculous poll" was to highlight just how ridiculous and lamentable the whole referendum has been right from the off. It would appear both sides have been trying to lose the debate.
On the one hand, there is the Remain which supports the continuation of a Corporatist agenda that believes in the indefinite growth forever fairy story. Which is showing severe warning signs that this is about to hit the buffers at full speed.
On the other, we get the Bullingdon bell end and Michael Gove - someone with all the wit, charm and charisma of a turd done in your garden by next door neighbour's cat - who also support a Corporatist aganda but are also appealing to the inner British psyche (read Home Counties) of their Colonel Blimp hankering for a return to a long since defunct British Empire.
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
From this perspective, Leavers are not conservatives. The kindest thing one can say about them is that they are radicals, but many of us would have less kind words.
Another example of lack of respect for a view that differs from the writer's. Sticking a label on nearly 50% of the voting population does not say much for the intellect of Stumbling and Mumbling.
Perhaps it wasn't the best phrase, but of the terms used in the referendum, including on this thread, a "less kind term than radical" is not really something to get worked up about.
And it is the case that people are going to be making a potentially huge decision on the basis of little knowledge, which is quite frightening,
Peter.
Does anyone know where the love of God goes when the waves turn the seconds to hours?
Blue Peter wrote:And it is the case that people are going to be making a potentially huge decision on the basis of little knowledge, which is quite frightening,
The challenge of all systems of human decision-making and why state control is to be avoided where at all sensible.
Firstly I look at the polls as a starting point but focus on undecided voter intentions and how many of them might actually vote (who by 2:1 tend to favour the status quo).
Then I take a long-term view of what I believe will be the British public’s collective will, based on a number of data points.
If you look back to the key elections over the last 40 years you can see that the results very much reflect the 'will of the people':
In 1992 they weren't sure about Kinnock so Major won.
In 1997 they believed things would get better with Blair so handed him a landslide.
In 2010 they did not want Brown but we're not willing to give power on a plate to Cameron so we had a coalition with Clegg.
In 2015 Clegg burnt his boats over tuition fees and the public took one look at Milliband so gave Cameron the smallest of majorities.
Milliband’s treatment by the studio audience at Question Time two weeks before the general election reinforced for me why I believed a Conservative majority was in the bag. The fact he tripped up on leaving the stage seemed to sum it all up.
I saw the very same thing in how the Sky audience reacted to Cameron last week. The transfer of power from the ruler to the people was visceral. He may not have fallen off the stage, but the public’s reaction revealed that he had tripped up with ‘Project Fear’.
Then I go back to the data and apply a ‘shy voter’ shift to the results.
Whilst the ‘shy Tory voter’ phenomenon has been discussed in terms of people who are unwilling to declare themselves in polls as Conservatives but go on to vote for the party in general elections, it is something that has hardly been mentioned in terms of the referendum, as you can discover simply by googling ‘shy voter EU referendum’.
This is a huge factor which will have a significant impact on the final result.
And here I can let you into my insider knowledge – although it is something anyone could do for themselves if they wanted. Call me old-fashioned but I believe in going out into the country and talking to people.
Westminster, the media and opinion-leader dinner parties mostly reside in London where the Remain vote is strongest and I think this clouds their perceptions.
Now at this point I need to let you know I could be accused of bias or deluding myself as I favour leaving the EU and am a member of ‘Communicators for Britain’, a group of marketing communications professionals supporting Brexit.
As part of our work at my agency, LONDON Advertising, we have created a new ad and social media campaign that is launching today to help ‘Get Out the Vote’ in the last week before the polls.
The campaign recounts various members of the public saying in their own words why they favour leaving the EU.
Two things struck me about this experience:
It was extraordinary the number of people who we approached who told us they were going to vote leave, but how few were willing to go on the record to say so as they seemed concerned – or ‘shy’ - about what their neighbors might think.
When you hear in their own words their rationale for leaving it was apparent they have been able to navigate their way through all the noise and complexities of the different arguments. In short their consensus view was that whilst they don’t trust politicians, at least they can vote ours out, but feel powerless to affect what happens in the EU. They understand that leaving may have a negative impact on the economy in the short term, but that the uncertainties of remaining could be worse in the long term. At the end of the day they are more willing to put their trust in the British public than a faceless EU elite.
So this is why I am firmly of the view that on June 24th the country will wake up to a new dawn ahead of us outside of the EU.
As Drum readers may recall, I was the lone voice amongst the pundits on the Drum Beat election panel to predict “a small Conservative majority” in last year’s general election. This was something I had been consistently forecasting in the national press, on the radio, BBC and Bloomberg in the preceding 7 months. My final prediction a week before the election exclusively for the Drum was a "Conservative majority in single figures" a variance of 0.46% from the final result.
In the Scottish Referendum I went on record predicting the “Yes vote would be under 45%”, a variance of 0.3% from the final result of 44.7%.
I admire people prepared to go against the herd. It take balls. This chap got the Tory majority right so who knows, maybe the elites, traders and politicos are failing to see a immanent Leave victory under their noses.
Or maybe I am plain wrong.
Will find out soon.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
UndercoverElephant wrote:Remain to win by 1 or 2%.
Followed by widespread allegations of rigging.
I really hope it isn't that close. It'll be a dark day if Farage, Boris etc don't accept defeat promptly tomorrow. The concept of drawn out legal challenges doesn't bare thinking about.
johnhemming2 wrote:The vote from UK citizens who are living outside the UK has not featured as part of the polls.
It is thought that over a million UK citizens live in other EU countries. I am not sure about the balance.
There are a lot of UK citizens in Australia, but I would think their turnout would be lower.
If we vote to stay, what is everyone's views about emigration ?
I am looking at jobs abroad - Iceland could be a good choice. Or maybe Panama, Canada, Australia or the USA?
What do you all think?
johnhemming2 wrote:The vote from UK citizens who are living outside the UK has not featured as part of the polls.
It is thought that over a million UK citizens live in other EU countries. I am not sure about the balance.
There are a lot of UK citizens in Australia, but I would think their turnout would be lower.
If we vote to stay, what is everyone's views about emigration ?
I am looking at jobs abroad - Iceland could be a good choice. Or maybe Panama, Canada, Australia or the USA?
What do you all think?
johnhemming2 wrote:The vote from UK citizens who are living outside the UK has not featured as part of the polls.
It is thought that over a million UK citizens live in other EU countries. I am not sure about the balance.
There are a lot of UK citizens in Australia, but I would think their turnout would be lower.
If we vote to stay, what is everyone's views about emigration ?
I am looking at jobs abroad - Iceland could be a good choice. Or maybe Panama, Canada, Australia or the USA?
What do you all think?
I think I'd rather stick rusty nails in my eyes than emigrate to the United States of Assholes.
johnhemming2 wrote:The vote from UK citizens who are living outside the UK has not featured as part of the polls.
It is thought that over a million UK citizens live in other EU countries. I am not sure about the balance.
There are a lot of UK citizens in Australia, but I would think their turnout would be lower.
If we vote to stay, what is everyone's views about emigration ?
I am looking at jobs abroad - Iceland could be a good choice. Or maybe Panama, Canada, Australia or the USA?
What do you all think?
If I was younger, NewZealand
Yep, if I could rewind 30 years...go to New Zealand, find a nice young lady, marry her, stay there.
clv101 wrote:Surely what's more important is what the local populations of those places would think about your immigration!
My point exactly. And you are voting Remain? You say the above, and yet you say 'don't go to these countries they may hate you'? Oh dear.
{ahem}
I've already worked in the USA and Canada,which require visas, and they are not anti-British. Iceland, there is a contract position that I could take in a few weeks, which could lead to a possible place to live (Iceland has got a lot of IT jobs atm). Please post responsibly.
AutomaticEarth wrote:
I am looking at jobs abroad - Iceland could be a good choice. Or maybe Panama, Canada, Australia or the USA?
What do you all think?
Iceland is in the EEA so there are no work visa requirements. For the rest it is different.
