EU membership referendum debate thread

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 19 Jun 2016, 15:06

1/3 out 2/3 in because Turkeys vote for xmas every time.

Where is Biff BTW? On holiday, not ill I hope? I miss his 'what would Delia think?' approach.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 19 Jun 2016, 15:13

Bloody hell, that's a hard one to call.

I will got with my (mild-sh) gut instinct for a narrow Leave victory - however I also think that a Remain victory is also a likely result.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 19 Jun 2016, 15:16

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/andr ... t-chatter/

Nobody knows what’s going to happen in our referendum. But for the past three or four weeks I have felt things are going Brexit’s way. The polls, which I don’t believe, are only now catching up on Marr sampling. One of the very few advantages of having an — ahem! — distinctive televised face is that people come up and tell you, often out of the side of the mouth, what they think. Over the past few weeks I’ve been filming all over Britain. Everywhere I go, from cafés (‘hot water please’) to trains and airports, walking down the street or lazing on a Scottish island, I hear, ‘Psst, I’m for out.’ I’ve heard it from Scottish nationalists, red-hot socialists and Tories alike. It’s utterly unscientific, of course, but if I had trusted this kind of informal street chatter during the general election I’d have realised exactly what was going on. I didn’t. I listened to the polls and the commentators. The best bet for the Remain side is a dramatic last-minute moment of alarm. That might happen. But there’s precious little sign of it yet.

Andrew Marr going for a Leave vote.

Interesting as he is following his gut instinct, despite what the polls are saying.

Post by **clv101** » 19 Jun 2016, 17:10

I've also noticed Marr's 'Brexit chatter. I think a large part of it is selection bias - folk who are voting leave are simply more likely to tell you they are! I think there are going to be a lot of 'shy remainers', who aren't particular proud of their choice and simply aren't talking about it.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 19 Jun 2016, 18:00

They'll be sorry when they do remain, and millions more migrants turn up because someone on PS told them they would be welcome (in Lincolnshire).

Post by **clv101** » 19 Jun 2016, 18:50

What happens to EU citizens living in the UK if we leave? Interesting that this hasn't been more of a talking point during the campaigning. Some thoughts:

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/10502680.html?edition=uk

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 19 Jun 2016, 20:16

I suspect that long term EU people living in the Uk will be given semi-permanent or even permanent leave to remain and the same will occur vice versa. Beyond which, the extent to which someone is given leave to remain will be on a sliding scale based on how useful they are to our economy/how short is their contract of work. Again, I would expect the same will occur vice versa.

Finally, all new applications for entry will be on some kind of points system, much as the rest of the world.

Where it gets interesting is if, following a LEAVE victory, but prior to actual cessation from the union, there is a surge to gain entry to the UK before the wall goes up. In which case, some kind of emergency legislation would need to enacted, presumably. That could get messy. I suppose one solution might be to make it clear to anyone entering the UK immediately following a LEAVE victory that they will be subject to the new points system immediately following cessation. In effect, this would mean that many of them would be functionally on a work visa whose length was the time it took to conclude negotiations for exit.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 20 Jun 2016, 07:22

clv101 wrote:What happens to EU citizens living in the UK if we leave? Interesting that this hasn't been more of a talking point during the campaigning. Some thoughts:

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/10502680.html?edition=uk

It has been said by Farage that UKIP are not aiming to get anyone here to leave.

"pledges" by either campaign really mean nothing. I would not think any campaign has actually given a "pledge". The referendum is about membership of the EU. Actually membership of the EEA gives them rights to stay here.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 20 Jun 2016, 10:15

johnhemming2 wrote:
clv101 wrote:What happens to EU citizens living in the UK if we leave? Interesting that this hasn't been more of a talking point during the campaigning. Some thoughts:

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/10502680.html?edition=uk
It has been said by Farage that UKIP are not aiming to get anyone here to leave.

"pledges" by either campaign really mean nothing. I would not think any campaign has actually given a "pledge". The referendum is about membership of the EU. Actually membership of the EEA gives them rights to stay here.

Do you really think the EU would not have to change the way it behaves if it lost £350 million a week and a member country?

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Jun 2016, 10:35

The Mirror is reporting Leave as taking back the lead in the very latest polls

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eu ... 16-7699714

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 20 Jun 2016, 10:53

Could just be a Murdoch directive.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Jun 2016, 10:55

Murdoch doesn't own The Mirror.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 20 Jun 2016, 10:57

Post by **clv101** » 20 Jun 2016, 11:39

Little John wrote:The Mirror is reporting Leave as taking back the lead in the very latest polls

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eu ... 16-7699714

That's not my reading of it. These are the polls that were discussed at length over the weekend. The general view is that it's neck and neck, with Remain having recovered the ground they lost the previous week. The polls don't give a good stear, we need to be considering the likely behaviour of the 'don't knows' who tend to be left out of the headline reporting and how things are likely to change as the decision gets closer - both of these are likely to be bias towards Remain.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 20 Jun 2016, 11:42

fuzzy wrote:
johnhemming2 wrote:
clv101 wrote:What happens to EU citizens living in the UK if we leave? Interesting that this hasn't been more of a talking point during the campaigning. Some thoughts:

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/10502680.html?edition=uk
It has been said by Farage that UKIP are not aiming to get anyone here to leave.

"pledges" by either campaign really mean nothing. I would not think any campaign has actually given a "pledge". The referendum is about membership of the EU. Actually membership of the EEA gives them rights to stay here.
Do you really think the EU would not have to change the way it behaves if it lost £350 million a week and a member country?

Firstly, we get a rebate so we do not pay that sum. Secondly, on a net per capita contributions basis we contribute about the same as Norway. Hence the EEA option (as proposed by UKIP in the past) you would expect to be financially much the same.

if people vote to leave it should raise concerns with the commission, but does not require in itself for them to change that much. The system automatically adjusts to elect more MEPs from the countries remaining. The UK commissioner would go as would UK attendance at the various ministerial meetings.