EU membership referendum debate thread

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 15 Jun 2016, 16:09

I think we are heading straight towards a major constitutional crisis. Brexit wasn't supposed to win. Just like the nationalists were never going to win the independence referendum in Scotland, the referendum was only held to shut up the "euro-skeptics" both within the tory party and elsewhere. But just like the establishment in the US didn't believe Trump could win, the UK establishment got it wrong. Leave is going to win.

But then what? Powerful forces both within the UK and in other parts of the EU will not want to simply accept a Brexit. There is a clear pro-EU majority in the Commons and many EU leaders won't want the UK to leave, so there is a high probability that a Leave victory will be followed by offers from the EU to provide more concessions and for the UK to hold a second referendum. There would also be outright civil war within the Tory party and between the establishment and those elements of the mainstream media that supported Brexit, notably Murdoch. Would Cameron resign? What would Corbyn do? What happens to the UKIP vote if Leave wins the referendum but Parliament refuses to honour the result?

We have a double-whammy of constitutional black holes here: the UK has no written constitution and no relevant previous history to guide the legal issues of dealing with a Leave victory, and the EU treaties have no clauses to deal with a country leaving either. Combine that with a UK governing party that is bitterly split down the middle on this, and an opposition where the MPs want to get rid of their leader but can't...?

Interesting times.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 15 Jun 2016, 16:33

If Brexit wins and nothing happens expect huge gains for UKIP in the next election, huge losses for the Tories and a hung Parliament. But again nothing done on Brexit unless UKIP and Brexit Tories can get a majority.

AutomaticEarth · Post by **AutomaticEarth** » 15 Jun 2016, 18:16

I'm wondering if we might have a snap General Election quite soon after the referendum?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 15 Jun 2016, 18:21

AutomaticEarth wrote:I'm wondering if we might have a snap General Election quite soon after the referendum?

If outright civil war breaks out in the Tory party then the last thing they will want is a general election. But on the other hand, if Cameron loses control of the Tory party then there will have to be a general election, because he wouldn't be able to command a commons majority.

Plus "snap general elections" aren't supposed to happen any more. We have fixed term parliaments now.

Post by **mikepepler** » 16 Jun 2016, 14:06

We can still have an election if there's a vote of no confidence I think? But would the pro-EU majority in the commons do that?

It will be shocking if the pro-EU MPs choose to ignore the result of an exit vote, I wouldn't rule out people marching on Westminster to protest...

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 16 Jun 2016, 14:56

What happens when, after Brexit, the government looks at the evolving economic situation and sees no option but to produce a budget on the lines that Osborne indicated, but 65 Tory MPs rebel and Labour votes against on the basis that it is an 'austerity' budget?

With the budget being voted down in Parliament the government would have little choice but to call a general election.

If Labour then won such an election we would have a government recently elected with a mandate for remain.

(Other future scenarios are available.)

AutomaticEarth · Post by **AutomaticEarth** » 16 Jun 2016, 15:21

I think a snap election would result in a hung parliament, and some very messy attempts to form some sort of coalition. I can't imagine the Tories getting any sort of majority this time round.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 16 Jun 2016, 15:42

Meanwhile, Labour MP Jo Cox, has been shot by a man said to have shouted "Britain First".

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 16 Jun 2016, 15:46

There is no reason for an austerity budget, apart from vindictiveness, as even the IMF has said that austerity doesn't work.

I agree that the Tories don't stand a hope in hell of getting a majority in the next election. They've pissed off far too many people and if Jeremy Corbin can persuade some of the 35% non voters to back him he stands a good chance of being the largest party.

Post by **mikepepler** » 16 Jun 2016, 18:58

Note, just to say that a post relating to today's tragic incident that was off topic for this thread, and the responses, have been deleted. They could be reposted in News. Hope this is OK with the posters...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Jun 2016, 19:42

mikepepler wrote:We can still have an election if there's a vote of no confidence I think?

Yes, it just can't be called at a whim by the government.

But would the pro-EU majority in the commons do that?

It might do. The opposition would. The key question is what the tories would do, since they only have a majority of 17. And I think that might boil down to complex internal party politics.

It will be shocking if the pro-EU MPs choose to ignore the result of an exit vote, I wouldn't rule out people marching on Westminster to protest...

It's an "advisory referendum". I think they'll be tempted to ignore it if they think they can get away with it. I suspect that if it happened then the result at the next general election would be a deeply hung parliament with UKIP taking seats from both labour and the tories, as well as the SNP retaining most of Scotland. UKIP would be unable to form a coalition with any other party unless it agreed to take the UK out of the EU, which would probably leave us with a minority Lab/SNP government that would struggle to do anything at all.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Jun 2016, 19:52

biffvernon wrote: If Labour then won such an election we would have a government recently elected with a mandate for remain.

No we wouldn't. The whole point of this referendum was to put the issue to bed, and what you have just described would not achieve this, not least because the Leave victory that now looks very likely is only going to happen because a large proportion of Labour voters voted to leave the EU, against the instructions of the party leadership.

I think there would have to be another referendum if this scenario happened, probably after a further round of negotiations and concessions from the EU. Maybe even a concession on freedom of movement.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36523759

Deputy Labour leader Tom Watson has said EU immigration rules may have to be revisited, saying "woe betide" the party if it ignores public concerns.

A future government, he said, would have to make the case to revise EU-wide freedom of movement rules for workers.

Labour MP John Mann, a Leave supporter, said the party was finally "admitting defeat" over backing for open borders.

It came as Jeremy Corbyn praised the role of migrants in the NHS and urged Labour to unite to stay in the EU.

Vote Leave said there was confusion within Labour over its stance on immigration, ten days ahead of the referendum on whether the UK should stay in or leave the EU.

If you think an incoming Labour government can simply ignore this issue and pretend it has a mandate for remaining in the EU as is, then you've got another think coming. Corbyn has enough trouble controlling his party as it is; do you seriously think he can ignore his own deputy on the primary issue that drove the Leave victory?

If both mainstream parties continue to back the UK remaining the EU with no change to freedom of movement rules, even after a Leave victory in this referendum, then the eventual result will be Nigel Farage in Downing Street. Hell...*I* would vote UKIP if this happens. Parliament has to be held accountable. It cannot be allowed to get away with holding a referendum then ignoring the result simply because it has the power to do so.

Post by **clv101** » 16 Jun 2016, 20:24

UndercoverElephant wrote:I think we are heading straight towards a major constitutional crisis.

Absolutely. Unless remain win by a decent margin (6%+) then all hell's going to break loose.

Cameron and Osborn are toast unless they get such a strong result. A small (1-3%) margin for leave, especially if the turnout isn't super high, might be enough of a reason for many MPs not to follow a result they will claim isn't in the country's best interest. A small margin for Remain will just fuel the defeated Leave in anticipation of another vote fairly soon.

It's all looking like one huge cock up from Cameron's point of view, as you say 'Leave' weren't meant to win!

I still think the polls are too close and unreliable to have much confidence either way, the bookies still have longer odds for Leave. I think Remain will win, but I'm not very confident!

A week can be a very long time in politics.

Post by **clv101** » 16 Jun 2016, 20:33

UndercoverElephant wrote:If both mainstream parties continue to back the UK remaining the EU with no change to freedom of movement rules, even after a Leave victory in this referendum, then the eventual result will be Nigel Farage in Downing Street. Hell...*I* would vote UKIP if this happens. Parliament has to be held accountable. It cannot be allowed to get away with holding a referendum then ignoring the result simply because it has the power to do so.

It would be an odd situation for parliament to move one way where a popular referendum would move the other - but certainly not unprecedented. The point is that both mainstream parties were elected on a pro-EU ticket, so they could claim mandate to stay in the EU even after a referendum result.

I guess the solution would be to have another election - but what happens if even after Leave win the referendum, again, a pro-EU party (or coalition of parties) win the new election?

Basically we have two different mechanisms of answering the same question.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 16 Jun 2016, 21:00

Yes, it does look increasingly likely that Leave will win.

The tragic shooting today may impact the course of the campaign, however, hopefully it shouldn't. Lone maniacs shouldn't impact peoples decisions on such a important matter.

If Britain did vote for Brexit it would cause a huge impact on Britain and the EU.

Whilst my gut instinct has always been for a Leave vote, I think it will be very close and I am prepared for a Remain victory, despite the recent rise of Leave in the polls.