EU membership referendum debate thread

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 12 Jun 2016, 23:19

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:Right, enough with the ******* "Brexit". This is a term deliberately coined and promoted by the Remain camp's propaganda machine, otherwise known as the MSM. It has been coined in order to trivialise and diminish the Leave campaign. We don't see "Bremain" being used as a term to describe the Remain campaign so we should not be seeing "Brexit" being used for the Leave campaign.
Don't agree. It's just short-hand, like "Grexit". It's not negative in anyway.

Contrast with "Dawkinsian" - a term intentionally invented to sound like "Dickensian", and not in a good way.

I would agree with that in principle except for the fact that, in practice, the media have not used any term other than "Remain" for the Remain camp. Grexit is indeed a term that has been used to describe the possibility of a Greek exit from the EU. It is also true that, in general, all things Greek in connection with Grexit have been presented in our MSM as being something of a basket case. Therefore, any term that is derived from that initial term is also bound to bring with it, in the minds of some voters, some of that negative baggage and our MSM orchestrators will know this well enough.

Now, I know all of the above will sound like paranoid nitpicking over words, but consider the fact that the UK government insisted that the Scottish referendum question required a YES or NO answer on the ballot. It has been clearly shown in psychological research that if you ask people a question, both on a ballot as much as anywhere else, that requires a YES or NO answer, about 10% of people will answer YES simply because they find it extremely hard to say NO. In other words, merely requiring a YES for your campaign on a ballot sheet, as opposed to a NO, gives you an automatic defacto 10% voting advantage.

Words matter and politicians know this. Language is thought. Control the language and you control the things people are capable of thinking.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 13 Jun 2016, 00:02

Latest poll puts LEAVE on a 19% lead

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ock-Brexit

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 13 Jun 2016, 00:40

It's never over 'til the fat lady sings..........

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 13 Jun 2016, 03:53

Aint that the truth

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 13 Jun 2016, 10:49

Yves Smith: Why a Leave vote may not result in a "Brexit"

Yves Smith wrote: Thus it appears that many experts have been focusing on the wrong issue, at least for now. They’ve been worrying about, “Which post-Brexit trade and economic model will the UK use, how long would it take to implement, and what would the costs be?” Yet European and UK officials are highly motivated to prevent a Brexit, and given that there is no clearly defined set of next steps if Leave wins, they have plenty of latitude to improvise.

However, just because the will is there does not mean a patch-up operation would work all that well. One driver of the Brexit vote is a desire to curb immigration. While getting waivers on that would seem to be the fastest path to flipping “Leave” voters to “Remain,” it would seem to be fraught to offer the UK concessions on that front. The first is the philosophical issue that restricting the free movement of people violates the spirit of the Schengren agreement, and also obviates one of the big reasons for the European Union in the first place. Second is that voters in other EU member states are unhappy about refugee quotas; letting the UK get a break (if that were to be part of the deal) means they will presumably have to take even more. What European elected official wants to have to sell that to his constituents right now? Put it another way, what does a European Union mean if big countries can rewrite what are seen to be basic rules? The vision for the European Union had been more and more integration over time, but a successful effort to reverse a Leave vote would put it on the path of more decentralization of power. In the long run, that is likely more viable, but the transition would contested and disruptive.

This "Leave" or "Remain" vote isn't all that it seems. A Leave vote on 23rd will, in all probability, mean that we will end up voting for another half baked EU constitution within a couple of years.

Oh and expect a clamour from Scottish Nationalists for another independence referendum. Whether they get their wish is another matter entirely

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 13 Jun 2016, 11:43

A Scottish referendum, in the event of a Leave win, will not happen for the following reasons:

1). The Scot-Nats lost the referendum to decide if they could make their decisions independently as a nation. I say this whilst acknowledging the underhand shenanigans by the UK government and MSM in that campaign.

This referendum is being held in the UK, including Scotland, to decide whether the UK takes back control of it's decision making. The Scot-Nats have no right to demand another referendum just because something has happened in the UK it does not like. If they demand a further referendum due to a decision on EU membership, why not on internal tax policy or anything else for that matter?

2) The economic argument made by the Scots-Nats, during the referendum, are now in tatters due to changes in the oil market.

3). The SNP may well be in favor of the EU to a massive extent. It is far less clear this is true for the Scottish people. Therefore, the SNP's attempt to link independence to the EU in such a singular way does not necessarily reflect the views of the Scottish public.

Because of all of the above factors, I would contend that another independence referendum in Scotland may well produce an even lower voite for independence than previously. The SNP know this full well.

A further Scottish independence referendum in the near future is absolutely not going to happen as a consequence of a Remain victory in the UK.

Post by **clv101** » 13 Jun 2016, 12:01

And to think it was only yesterday you accused me of 'magical gift of clairvoyance'...

You don't know that these things 'will not happen' or 'are absolutely not going to happen'. I agree you're likely right, but let's have some acknowledgement of future uncertainty?

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 13 Jun 2016, 12:43

clv101 wrote:And to think it was only yesterday you accused me of 'magical gift of clairvoyance'...

You don't know that these things 'will not happen' or 'are absolutely not going to happen'. I agree you're likely right, but let's have some acknowledgement of future uncertainty?

I have made predictions and have backed them up with logical argument. You may feel free to contest those arguments with arguments, hopefully logical ones, of your own.

This is quite different form what I accused you of yesterday. Firstly, the issues being discussed are far closer to home and we know a number of factors involved with certainty. The Scots Nats did lose the referendum. It is highly unlikely Westminster will allow anopther Scottish referendum in the near future unless put under incredible pressure from the Scottish people. The Scottish economic predictions of the Scots Nats are currently in tatters due to changes in the oil price

From the above, it is not unreasonable to assume a Scottish referendum is extremely unlikely in the near future.

What you did yesterday is make an assertion that the UK economy would be significantly worse off following a Leave victory and provided no proper argument for your assertion.

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 13 Jun 2016, 13:45

I posited about the Scottish referendum purely because a the Scots are far more Pro-European than the rest of the country.

I also stated:

Whether they get their wish is another matter entirely

The only way that I could conceivably see another Scottish referendum being held is if Boris took office and he sees it as an opportune moment to try and split the anti Tory vote. This is a possibility that should not be discounted but I'm unconvinced this will come to pass.

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 13 Jun 2016, 14:06

Little John wrote:
What you did yesterday is make an assertion that the UK economy would be significantly worse off following a Leave victory and provided no proper argument for your assertion.

I know that this question wasn't directed at myself, however I was going to post along these lines anyway, so here goes:

What is happening now, and will continue to do so for the short term at least, is an attack on Sterling. The BoE may be forced into an interest rate rise.
This gives an interesting insight into how the ECB is preparing for such an eventuality.

Meanwhile, the European banks are tumbling and crumbling, as the prospect of Brexit becomes increasingly likely.
During the past two weeks, the European financial institutions suffered the worst blow to their capitalization in two years, hinting at possible massive capital outflows in case of Brexit. Deutsche Bank dropped to its record lowest, according to European stock market data. Considering these developments, Brexit might potentially be a worse hit to mainland Europe than to the UK itself. Either way, the upside of this is that the overheated European stock markets would cool to be more in line with the sluggish overall growth in the region.

Another factor is the Bank of England (BOE) being inclined to hike base rates from the current low of 0.5% by 0.25-0.5% shortly after the referendum to support sterling and lure investment capital back to the Albion. Given the euro’s weakness, no wonder the mainland European banks are first in line to take the blow.

What would happen after an interest rate rise?
Well it would be used as an excuse for a collapse in the housing market - even though the warning signs were flashing well before this referendum "debate" really got going.
It would expose the gargantuan waste of money the Government's "help to get Saddled with Monumental Debt in exchange for a shoebox house" really is.
Many households will be financially devastated by even the smallest of incremental rise in repaying their debt
There will likely be a Stock Market correction. Oh boo ****ing hoo

There will be the usual blather about pensions being hammered with absolutely no mention of the devastating impact that Zero and Negative Rate Interest policies have had. It has long been known that pensions were facing a funding crisis - this will bring the issue to the fore.

Having said all that, probably the bigger loser will be the EU, and particularly the ECB

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 13 Jun 2016, 15:23

Thanks for that RB.

A housing crash and the stock market brought back to reality?

Sounds bloody brilliant, to be honest. Although the pain, initially, will be mighty, it means, longer term, my kids might actually have a chance of buying a bloody house for themselves!

AutomaticEarth · Post by **AutomaticEarth** » 13 Jun 2016, 23:11

Little John wrote:Thanks for that RB.

A housing crash and the stock market brought back to reality?

Sounds bloody brilliant, to be honest. Although the pain, initially, will be mighty, it means, longer term, my kids might actually have a chance of buying a bloody house for themselves!

Totally agree. A crash in the stock market and house prices can only be a good thing. Even better, interest rates could rise somewhat, making savers earn some money on their savings.

However,Scotland are voting Remain, so nothing is cast in stone.... let's hope Scotland don't have too much of an impact on the Leave vote.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Jun 2016, 23:59

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... nicm-polls

Another "outlier"?

I think there is now clear evidence of momentum swinging to leave.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 14 Jun 2016, 02:18

There is clear evidence that it's split nearly down the middle. That is not good as it means 50 % are going to be disappointed, whatever happens.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 14 Jun 2016, 06:35

I would argue it is slightly different in complexion to that. Leavers (notwithstanding the few Tories who see it as an opportunity to be free of working condition regs) are typically, in my experience far more committed to their views. Not least because they need to be in order to maintain those views in the face of the kind of MSM onslaught they have had to endure over the years. Remainers, on the other hand are comprised partially of true believers, partially of self-interested opportunists and partially of those who simply follow the herd in whatever direction they think it is running. If the Leave campaign wins, the herd followers and opportunists will duly change course.