EU membership referendum debate thread

[biffvernon]

Want a quick way to crash the economy?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... ng-markets

[clv101]

For those who think a crash is inevitable, and that sooner would be better than later, a vote for leave is probably the best, most effective way of achieving it.

I think a 'leave' result will have a significant negative impact on the UK economy, and the EU economy. Given the interconnectedness and fragility of the global economy these days, I wouldn't be surprised if a 'leave' result has a negative impact on the global economy.

Given that, I think it inevitable CO2 emissions will be lower than they would otherwise have been.

[AutomaticEarth]

For those who think a crash is inevitable, and that sooner would be better than later, a vote for leave is probably the best, most effective way of achieving it.

I think a 'leave' result will have a significant negative impact on the UK economy, and the EU economy. Given the interconnectedness and fragility of the global economy these days, I wouldn't be surprised if a 'leave' result has a negative impact on the global economy.

Given that, I think it inevitable CO2 emissions will be lower than they would otherwise have been.

Nicely put. Brexit will just speed up the inevitable, especially if Trump and Le Pen manage to add to the melee......

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 77081.html

[fuzzy]

For those who think a crash is inevitable, and that sooner would be better than later, a vote for leave is probably the best, most effective way of achieving it.

I think a 'leave' result will have a significant negative impact on the UK economy, and the EU economy. Given the interconnectedness and fragility of the global economy these days, I wouldn't be surprised if a 'leave' result has a negative impact on the global economy.

Given that, I think it inevitable CO2 emissions will be lower than they would otherwise have been.

If we don't join the Euro we will lose 1000000s of jobs - remember pricks like the CBI spouting this years ago??

[woodburner]

Claiming a negative economic impact in the event of leaving, or remaining is just so much irrelevant sooth saying. Either way there will be an economic down turn, and there would be one even if the subject of a referendum wasn't on the table. Add to this, who in their right mind believes an economist? They have such diverse views about everything, some are bound to be right, and some wrong.

The western economies are, basically, stuffed. We have near zero interest rates, so most who have recently borrowed will be bankrupted if the rate rises, as people usually borrow too much, and this includes a lot of businesses.

So please trumpeting leaving the EU will mean economic disaster, without mentioning staying in will also mean economic disaster.

[Little John]

For those who think a crash is inevitable, and that sooner would be better than later, a vote for leave is probably the best, most effective way of achieving it.

I think a 'leave' result will have a significant negative impact on the UK economy, and the EU economy. Given the interconnectedness and fragility of the global economy these days, I wouldn't be surprised if a 'leave' result has a negative impact on the global economy.

Given that, I think it inevitable CO2 emissions will be lower than they would otherwise have been.

You have absolutely no capacity to say that a Leave victory would trigger a major crash with any confidence. So stop trying to make out you do have the magical gift of clairvoyance. What is far more tenable is to simply acknowledge that the Western economy, indeed the Western economic model, is f***ed no matter what we do. Thus, any argument about the EU referendum can only really be about the extent to which In or Out facilitates or hinders the UK's capacity to manage, for it's own people, the inevitable chaos to come

[UndercoverElephant]

For those who think a crash is inevitable, and that sooner would be better than later, a vote for leave is probably the best, most effective way of achieving it.

I think a 'leave' result will have a significant negative impact on the UK economy, and the EU economy. Given the interconnectedness and fragility of the global economy these days, I wouldn't be surprised if a 'leave' result has a negative impact on the global economy.

Given that, I think it inevitable CO2 emissions will be lower than they would otherwise have been.

Yes. But then Biff Vernon consistently contradicts himself whenever the subject of economic growth comes up in debate. He's consistently against it when the topic is the environment, but also consistently uses arguments dependent on the assumption that growth is good whenever and wherever those arguments happen to support other political or ethical positions he wants to prop up, from immigration to membership of the EU. He makes no effort whatsoever to be consistent on this.

By sharp contrast, all of the people he ends up in conflict with on this forum maintain a consistent position: economic growth is either bad, or impossible to sustain anyway, or both, and therefore we need to implement policies based on an assumption or goal of "degrowth".

[clv101]

For those who think a crash is inevitable, and that sooner would be better than later, a vote for leave is probably the best, most effective way of achieving it.

I think a 'leave' result will have a significant negative impact on the UK economy, and the EU economy. Given the interconnectedness and fragility of the global economy these days, I wouldn't be surprised if a 'leave' result has a negative impact on the global economy.

Given that, I think it inevitable CO2 emissions will be lower than they would otherwise have been.

You have absolutely no capacity to say that a Leave victory would trigger a major crash with any confidence. So stop trying to make out you do have the magical gift of clairvoyance. What is far more tenable is to simply acknowledge that the Western economy, indeed the Western economic model, is ****** no matter what we do. Thus, any argument about the EU referendum can only really be about the extent to which In or Out facilitates or hinders the UK's capacity to manage, for it's own people, the inevitable chaos to come

FFS Steve, I make no claims of clairvoyance! Of all the posters on PowerSwitch I'm one of the first to recognise the uncertainty inherent in our future! My opinion is that I think leave would have significant negative economic impact. It's an opinion not some pronouncement of fact. Of course your opinions are free to differ, this wouldn't be much of a discussion if one isn't allowed to freely express opinions about the future.

A vote for leave will do one of three things to future CO2 emissions compared to where they would be had we remained; be higher, lower, or exactly the same. We can rule out exactly the same leaving two options. It's my opinion that they will be lower in event of a leave vote. That's all I'm saying.

[Little John]

No.

If you accept that a crash of the world economy is inevitable irrespective of a Brexit vote then the above crash is a constant not a variable, at best, and an entirely external variable (to the EU referendum) at worst. Thus, it can be effectively disregarded in terms of weighing up the consequences of a Brexit vote. A Brexit vote, then, may be weighed merely in terms of how effectively it allows us to deal with the above crash, not in terms of how we might avoid it.

[clv101]

A crash isn't a binary thing to be avoided or not. It's coming - it's timing, details, depth are all unknown. As such I think it's wrong to consider it a constant not a variable.

My opinion is that Brexit will, all else being equal, bring the crash forward and/or deeper that it would otherwise might have been. In common parlance be 'negative' - however, for those of us thinking it would be better to crash sooner than later, this negative could be regarded as a positive.

[woodburner]

PENSIONS, NHS COULD BE CUT IF BRITAIN LEAVES EU, CAMERON SAYS
BY REUTERS ON 6/11/16 AT 11:00 PM
This Week's Biggest 'Brexit' Battles: Two Weeks To Go
This Week's Biggest 'Brexit' Battles: Two Weeks To Go
Pensions and the publicly funded National Health Service could face cuts if Britons vote to leave the European Union, Prime Minister David Cameron told a Sunday newspaper, seeking to win support from some of the most pro-Brexit members of the public.

Pensions have already been cut drastically, since the 1980s, and in all that time we have been, er, in the let me think, ah yes, the EU.

Ditto for the NHS problems, that started as early as the days of Thatcher (the milk snatcher)
So back off, Cameron and stop feathering your own nest. We know you are expecting a top EU job when you give up your failed attempt at being PM.

Read more.......

[biffvernon]

My opinion is that Brexit will, all else being equal, bring the crash forward and/or deeper that it would otherwise might have been. In common parlance be 'negative' - however, for those of us thinking it would be better to crash sooner than later, this negative could be regarded as a positive.

Indeed. The trouble with this approach is that it is a bit like solving the population problem by encouraging genocide.

What we really want to do is bring population growth to an end by voluntary means, maintaining everyone's health and welfare, and bring greenhouse gas emissions to an end by not crashing the economy but rather decoupling economic growth from pollution and resource depletion.

Anyway, I don't suppose climate change will cause people to vote Brexit - the Brexit leaders are all climate change deniers.

[AutomaticEarth]

Anyway, I don't suppose climate change will cause people to vote Brexit - the Brexit leaders are all climate change deniers.

Are they? This post makes no sense whatsoever....

[AutomaticEarth]

Anyway, I don't suppose climate change will cause people to vote Brexit - the Brexit leaders are all climate change deniers.

Lots of Brexit voters are pro climate change.What are you on about? Biff, are you funded by the fossil fuel industry? It sure sounds like it....

[UndercoverElephant]

What we really want to do is bring population growth to an end by voluntary means,

No, Biff, that's what we wanted to do about 50 years ago.