EU membership referendum debate thread

[UndercoverElephant]

Meanwhile, back in reality, a poll comissioned by the Independent has put Leave 10 points ahead. For the first time I am beginning to think that Brexit is now the most likely outcome.

[vtsnowedin]

This will make those think the UK is rich, feel much better. Almost no debt at all. Or have I read it wrongly?

Wrongly. You are still muddling national debt and national wealth.

Imagine a rather small nation of 10 people, each very wealthy with a million pounds each. Tired of storing the money under their beds they decide to lend it to their government. The government borrows the hundred million.

A national debt of £100,000,000 is thus created but the nation is still just as wealthy.

The government, judging that the population is unlikely all to ask for their money back at once, spends half of it on public works for the common good.

The national debt remains the same but there are now great public works for the population to enjoy and the people have room to dust under their beds.

National debt happens for very good reasons, for the common good. It's a good thing. Get over it.

I believe this is called the Venezuelan model. It forgets that the lenders are going to want their (and it is THEIR )money back plus a fee (interest) for not having it to use themselves for building profitable enterprises.
Would not be a bad idea if the money was spent wisely on real infrastructure projects instead of inflated bureaucrats salaries and welfare checks.

[biffvernon]

I believe this is called the Venezuelan model. It forgets that the lenders are going to want their (and it is THEIR )money back plus a fee (interest) for not having it to use themselves for building profitable enterprises.
Would not be a bad idea if the money was spent wisely on real infrastructure projects instead of inflated bureaucrats salaries and welfare checks.

Venezuela is a very long way from an ideal communist state! I'd describe it more as a basket case.

The point of models of Utopia is not to suggest that they will come to pass any time soon, or ever, but to illuminate a direction of travel. Dismissing Utopian thinking is to miss the point. But the point of my model was to illustrate that national debt should not be equated with national wealth and that it should not be automatically regarded as a bad thing, either in this world or in Utopia.

[johnhemming2]

Politicians are not that good at running things which is why the state should not get involved in things it does not need to be involved in.

What tends to happen is that power is abused by the politicians in order to stay in office. That can be very dangerous for the wider society. That is why many things are moved to be independent of direct political control.

[kenneal - lagger]

Politicians are not that good at running things which is why the state should not get involved in things it does not need to be involved in.

And according to recent articles in the FT, I think it was, neither are our business people and *ankers. According to the FT many of our leading business people are psychopaths, BHS for instance, and many of our investment *ankers do no better than evens with our money.

What tends to happen is that power is abused by the politicians in order to stay in office. That can be very dangerous for the wider society. That is why many things are moved to be independent of direct political control.

That is called the Greek model, methinks!

What is required is what we had before neoliberalism took over and was a modicum of each, some state and some industrial investment, with each overseeing the other to create checks and balances.

As VT alluded to, investors in the state, in anything for that matter, do require their money back at some stage as we all have rainy days and we all eventually retire to some extent to live on our life savings. Also at the moment we are increasingly having to fund our childrens' house purchases although that wouldn't happen in a Utopia. Neither would needing money to fund are retirement, I suppose, we'd all have state pensions or basic income.

[biffvernon]

Politicians are not that good at running things which is why the state should not get involved in things it does not need to be involved in.

What tends to happen is that power is abused by the politicians in order to stay in office. That can be very dangerous for the wider society. That is why many things are moved to be independent of direct political control.

Yes, except that we have to bear in mind that politicians are, contrary to rumours about lizards, people. What's more there's no a priori reason why the should be better or worse than people who are not politicians. People who are not politicians are certainly capable of being bad at running things, corrupt, self-interested and sometimes abuse power to make themselves rich or boost their own egos. There are, of course, many politicians and non-politicians who act out of altruism for the common good, so let's not tar them all with the same brush.

[clv101]

Meanwhile, back in reality, a poll comissioned by the Independent has put Leave 10 points ahead. For the first time I am beginning to think that Brexit is now the most likely outcome.

It is an outlier: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... referendum

I think the only thing we can take from the polls, is that is too close for the polls to tell us much more than that! Broadly speaking polls like this have an uncertainty of a few percent at the best of times - however, polling for the EU ref. is likely more unreliable as there's no historical evidence to use for bias correction. We really have no idea of how representative the sampling is, how relatively truthful the two groups are, what turnouts going to be in the different ages/regions/socio-economic groups...

My gut feeling is that remain will win, by a larger margin than the polls indicate. I suspect small c conservatism and risk aversion will have a big influence in the polling booth. The Scottish voted for the status-quo far more convincingly than the polls or pundits thought they might, I can see the same happening now.

[johnhemming2]

What is required is what we had before neoliberalism took over and was a modicum of each, some state and some industrial investment, with each overseeing the other to create checks and balances.

Withgoing having a futile discussion about where the threshold lies for neoliberalism, the question is always one as to what should be run by the state (eg judiciary, police) and what should be in the private sector.

I would not personally revert to British Rail. Some people would, however.

[johnhemming2]

I think the only thing we can take from the polls

I don't think any of the polls take into account UK citizens living in the EEA.

One interesting question will be to find out how many have registered to vote.

[johnhemming2]

I have obtained the recent figures on net contributions by the UK and Norway.
http://johnhemming.blogspot.co.uk/2016/ ... euros.html

[woodburner]

Having the ability to enact our own legislation would make a 10€ cost worth it, even if that fictious figure turns out to be valid. As an example, one laughable action by the half-witted EU judiciary meant that Scotland was not able to cut their alcohol consumption by having minimum pricing, because those unelected decision makers said it was against EU law. WTF?

[johnhemming2]

The point about the EEA is that the EEA countries have to follow the rules set by the EU (apart from CAP and CFP). I link to a story about Norway.

We do actually have shared control over the EU rules.

In essence the world is developing towards having regional trading blocks that set the rules in a continent. That for the continent of Europe (which we will continue to be part of) is the EU.

I think it is better than many trading systems as it recognises the importance of the environment and working conditions.

[fuzzy]

I have obtained the recent figures on net contributions by the UK and Norway.
http://johnhemming.blogspot.co.uk/2016/ ... euros.html

Except 'net contributions' is a bogus measure. The whole of the UK pays through taxation, and the rich landowners get subsidised to grow rapeseed/nothing, to wreck our upland drainage, or to buy and sell sheep when the EU auditor is due a visit, for a bigger handout. Large scale intensive farming is a result of the inheritance laws protecting the thieves of the past. It does little to grow food for the UK. Of course, a nation of modern crofters wouldn't generate the GDP to pay Whitehall pensions, or 650 MP's high on the hog.

Meanwhile companies like Nissan are not here for the Geordie charm, they are bribed by the EU and allowed all the multinational tax fiddles for the sake of a pitiful few 1000 assembly/distribution jobs:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news ... -ruse.html

So returned contributions do not reach us plebs paying 1/2 their income as tax.

[johnhemming2]

It depends really on the extent to which people use public services. If they don't then the returned funds have no impact

Nissan currently provides 6,700 direct jobs, but then there are knock on effects.

[woodburner]

Approx 1/2 a BHS then. Not many is it?