USA presidential elections 2016

Post by **clv101** » 09 Jun 2016, 05:57

UndercoverElephant wrote:Trump is going to win.

Any objective analysis suggests that's less likely than Clinton wining.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 09 Jun 2016, 09:31

Objective analysis is a fallacy. Look at the failed analyses of precious elections.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 09 Jun 2016, 12:38

clv101 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:Trump is going to win.
Any objective analysis suggests that's less likely than Clinton wining.

I don't agree. I don't bet, but at this point if I was a betting man I would certainly back Trump to win. I have just got a feeling that Hillary Clinton is sufficiently despised by enough of the American public that even the fear of a Donald Trump presidency will not provoke them to vote for her. They will stay at home. Meanwhile, some Sanders supporters will actually vote for Trump instead of switching to Clinton.

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-donal ... pd47b.html

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 09 Jun 2016, 15:44

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-0 ... -winner-th

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 09 Jun 2016, 17:32

There is something a bit odd about that article though.

This primary process for selecting the nominee isn't really supposed to be democratic. It never was. Or rather, not completely democratic. It is in effect an internal election, much more like a British political party electing a new leader than an open election for public office. And how do these work in the UK? A variety of ways that are evolving, but even the most democratic of them still retains a controlling stake by the party establishment. Even the Labour Party has only just changed this system, and the result is that they've got a leader who is completely out of step with the MPs. This is exactly the sort of problem the "superdelegates" are there to avoid - they are there to prevent somebody like Sanders winning the Democratic nomination, just as Labour MPs would have liked to prevent Corbyn winning the labour leadership (but couldn't).

My point is this: I think this is much a failure to communicate than anything else. A lot of people, both inside and outside the US, do not appear to understand how this is supposed to work: at the end of the day, the Democratic Party chooses the nominee, not the public. This is not actually a "failure of democracy". It is more like a failure of the Democratic Party to explain to people how this process is supposed to work, and why it is that way.

Put another way - if the Democratic Party chooses to elect its leader in this way, does that mean that the US is not a proper democracy? Because if so, then almost nowhere is a proper democracy. Does anywhere have completely open "primaries" or party leadership elections? I don't think so. I think political parties in democracies generally retain control of these things themselves. This is normal. What is abnormal about the US is that people are being led to believe that something else is normal.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 09 Jun 2016, 19:23

Agreed UE.

Where was the "objective evidence" that the Tories would win the majority in the 2015 GE?

I betted on a Tory majority based on gut instinct (as well as in-depth polling on Ed Miliband) but not a SINGLE poll suggested that I was right.

The irony is that there is better polling evidence out there that Trump could win the GE. Not quite sure why folks think that it is unthinkable.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 09 Jun 2016, 20:20

Because there has never been such a large sociological, psychological, economic and political disconnect in my lifetime between the intelligentsia and the proletariat as there is right now. When viewed by the intelligentsia from across the other side of that chasm, the capacity of the proles to shift allegiances between the likes of Sanders and Trump must seem positively bewildering, I imagine.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 09 Jun 2016, 21:18

Yes, the disconnect between the liberal chatter classes elite and ordinary working folks is huge.

They literally never mix or interact.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 10 Jun 2016, 22:18

Robert Reich
8 June at 16:33 ·
The only thing I can think of doing this morning is to write a public note to my friend, Bernie Sanders:

Dear Bernie:

I don’t know what you’re going to do from here on, and I’m not going to advise you. You've earned the right to figure out the next steps for your campaign and the movement you have launched.

But let me tell you this: You’ve already succeeded.

At the start they labeled you a “fringe” candidate – a 74-year-old, political Independent, Jewish, self-described democratic socialist, who stood zero chance against the Democratic political establishment, the mainstream media, and the moneyed interests.

Then you won 22 states.

And in almost every state – even in those you lost -- you won vast majorities of voters under 30, including a majority of young women and Latinos. And most voters under 45.

You have helped shape the next generation.

You’ve done it without SuperPACs or big money from corporations, Wall Street, and billionaires. You did it with small contributions from millions of us. You've shown it can be done without selling your soul or compromising your conviction.

You’ve also inspired millions to get involved in politics -- and to fight the most important and basic of all fights on which all else depends: to reclaim our economy and democracy from the moneyed interests.

Your message – about the necessity of single-payer healthcare, free tuition at public universities, a $15 minimum wage, busting up the biggest Wall Street banks, taxing the financial speculation, expanding Social Security, imposing a tax on carbon, and getting big money out of politics – will shape the progressive agenda from here on.

Your courage in taking on the political establishment has emboldened millions of us to stand up and demand our voices be heard.

Regardless of what you decide to do now, you have ignited a movement that will fight onward. We will fight to put more progressives into the House and Senate. We will fight at the state level. We will organize for the 2020 presidential election.

We will not succumb to cynicism. We are in it for the long haul. We will never give up.

Thank you, Bernie.

Bob

AutomaticEarth · Post by **AutomaticEarth** » 12 Jun 2016, 22:08

http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=54981

Says it all really......

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 24 Jun 2016, 20:20

Donald Trump is very likely to win the November elections.

Fact.

If Britain can vote for Brexit, Trump can convert Middle America.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 25 Jun 2016, 15:48

Lord Beria3 wrote:Donald Trump is very likely to win the November elections.

Fact.

If Britain can vote for Brexit, Trump can convert Middle America.

I don't think you can go as far as "very likely". With the amount of baggage they both have I'd call it a fifty- fifty shot today and it will be decided by events between now and election day.
In other words, they that screw up the worst between now and November will lose.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 25 Jun 2016, 21:44

I had this sent to me today. A very well written Rant from a Bernie supporter that has not given up.
https://theindependentthinker2016.wordp ... -the-kids/

As an American citizen, I have some expectation that I have a voice in my government.

This is probably naive, but this belief is a huge part of the foundation on which I build my happiness.

This is not simply an entitlement.

It is a right paid in blood by the warriors who came before me and one I have a duty to pay forward.

Millions gave their lives for democracy.

America invades developing nations in the name of democracy.

Our country was founded on the idea of giving liberty to those who were oppressed by tyrannical governments.

Democracy is the cornerstone of what makes us America and if we are even to begin to make the argument that this is the greatest country in the world, then we must first be willing to fight for the rights of all citizens to have a say in this social contract we are all engaged in.

Rigging an election, rather it is done in a blatant manner, like actually using machines to flip votes or in a more subtle manner, like working with the corporate media to convince Americans that one candidate has already won, in an attempt to discourage citizens from exercising their voice, is more than just a slap in the face to the American voter, it is an assault on the sacrifices of the brave women and men who laid down their lives for our right to participate in a democracy.

It is the ultimate in cowardice.

It is a crime against our ancestors.

The blood of heroes means nothing to those who feed on power.

The cries of the poor and evaporating middle-class disappear into a bottomless, corporate void.

They see an America where you have to pay to be heard.

They see an America where money buys power and the poverty stricken fight for the crumbs of a faux democracy.

Tried-1-1024x536

I have always been a proud Democrat.

I spent my life going to rallies and protests, writing letters, raising awareness on liberal issues and trying to help those in need.

The Democrats aligned themselves closely with the issues that were near and dear to my heart.

For 25 years I fought for LBGT+ rights, fair immigration laws, a woman’s right to choose, gun control and fair working conditions for all Americans.

Although I am a cliche vegetarian, bleeding-heart artist, who boycotts Monsanto, WalMart, Chic Fil A and Hobby Lobby…

Although I am a steadfast ally for equality for all humans..

Although, I am in every way, a liberal..

I am no longer, in any way, a Democrat.

My former party has aligned itself with corporate greed and although you won’t find them pounding The Bible or fighting against Roe v Wade, they are every bit as reprehensible, in the fact that they are now loyal only to corporations and they no longer represent the will of the people.

When my party decides to build A WALL(!!!) around their convention, in fear that perhaps democracy might find a way in, then they are no longer my party.

When my party crowns an Empress, before the first vote is even cast, then they are no longer my party.

When my party colludes with corporate media heads to falsify “the news” and deceive the American people into not voting, then they are no longer my party.

It continues and is worth the read.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 13 Jul 2016, 20:35

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-sta ... tes-225442

Did Donald Trump really just surge past Hillary Clinton in two of the election's most important battlegrounds?

New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.

The race is so close that it's within the margin of error in each of the three states. Trump leads by three points in Florida — the closest state in the 2012 election — 42 percent to 39 percent. In Ohio, the race is tied, 41 percent to 41 percent. And in Pennsylvania — which hasn't voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988 — Trump leads, 43 percent to 41 percent.

Trump neck to neck with Clinton and he has only started his general election pivot to a more presidential tone.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/1473422518 ... glide-path

I’ve been saying since last year that Trump’s path to victory is simple. All he needs to do is STOP saying controversial things for the last several months before election day to prove he can control himself. Plus, voters have short memories. So whatever Trump does in the coming months will be more important than whatever happened last year. And lately he’s been more presidential, at least by Trump standards.

Now consider what Clinton and Trump each need to accomplish – and quickly – in order to win in November. Clinton needs to prove she is not crooked, which is now impossible because the head of the FBI has publicly certified her as crooked. At least that’s how it looks to the public. The public heard the FBI say Clinton broke the law, followed by a decision to not prosecute. That taint won’t wash off by November.

Trump, on the other hand, simply has to NOT do crazy-racist-sounding things for a few months. If he stays presidential (mostly) from here on out, people will believe he can moderate his scary persona at will. That’s all he needs to prove.

Clinton’s task of proving she is not crooked is literally impossible at this stage. But Trump’s task of NOT being outrageous for a few months is somewhat easy. He’s already doing it, and I don’t see him breaking a sweat.

Bottom line - as long as Trump carries on the presidential tone, he will win in November.

careful_eugene · Post by **careful_eugene** » 14 Jul 2016, 10:27

vtsnowedin wrote:I had this sent to me today. A very well written Rant from a Bernie supporter that has not given up.
https://theindependentthinker2016.wordp ... -the-kids/
As an American citizen, I have some expectation that I have a voice in my government.

This is probably naive, but this belief is a huge part of the foundation on which I build my happiness.

This is not simply an entitlement.

It is a right paid in blood by the warriors who came before me and one I have a duty to pay forward.

Millions gave their lives for democracy.

America invades developing nations in the name of democracy.

Our country was founded on the idea of giving liberty to those who were oppressed by tyrannical governments.

Democracy is the cornerstone of what makes us America and if we are even to begin to make the argument that this is the greatest country in the world, then we must first be willing to fight for the rights of all citizens to have a say in this social contract we are all engaged in.

Rigging an election, rather it is done in a blatant manner, like actually using machines to flip votes or in a more subtle manner, like working with the corporate media to convince Americans that one candidate has already won, in an attempt to discourage citizens from exercising their voice, is more than just a slap in the face to the American voter, it is an assault on the sacrifices of the brave women and men who laid down their lives for our right to participate in a democracy.

It is the ultimate in cowardice.

It is a crime against our ancestors.

The blood of heroes means nothing to those who feed on power.

The cries of the poor and evaporating middle-class disappear into a bottomless, corporate void.

They see an America where you have to pay to be heard.

They see an America where money buys power and the poverty stricken fight for the crumbs of a faux democracy.

Tried-1-1024x536

I have always been a proud Democrat.

I spent my life going to rallies and protests, writing letters, raising awareness on liberal issues and trying to help those in need.

The Democrats aligned themselves closely with the issues that were near and dear to my heart.

For 25 years I fought for LBGT+ rights, fair immigration laws, a woman’s right to choose, gun control and fair working conditions for all Americans.

Although I am a cliche vegetarian, bleeding-heart artist, who boycotts Monsanto, WalMart, Chic Fil A and Hobby Lobby…

Although I am a steadfast ally for equality for all humans..

Although, I am in every way, a liberal..

I am no longer, in any way, a Democrat.

My former party has aligned itself with corporate greed and although you won’t find them pounding The Bible or fighting against Roe v Wade, they are every bit as reprehensible, in the fact that they are now loyal only to corporations and they no longer represent the will of the people.

When my party decides to build A WALL(!!!) around their convention, in fear that perhaps democracy might find a way in, then they are no longer my party.

When my party crowns an Empress, before the first vote is even cast, then they are no longer my party.

When my party colludes with corporate media heads to falsify “the news” and deceive the American people into not voting, then they are no longer my party.
It continues and is worth the read.

Well worth the read and thanks for sharing

like working with the corporate media to convince Americans that one candidate has already won, in an attempt to discourage citizens from exercising their voice

This part resonated with me as we witness our MSM try to convince the population that Jeremy Corbyn is unelectable and his party would never win. Notable tactics include drawing attention to him not singing the national anthem and not bowing low enough at the cenotaph on remembrance day.